AUDUSD analysis: MACD bullish crossover
The latest Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes, which opened the door to more interest rate hikes, may provide only marginal support to the Australian dollar when compared to the US dollar (
AUDUSD
).
Stronger global economic growth, a Chinese industrial recovery, more risk appetite among investors, and widespread gains in commodity prices are required for the Australian dollar to thrive. These factors would strongly reverse the Aussie’s trajectory, pushing the
AUDUSD
comfortably back above 0.70.
Therefore, for the time being, the RBA’s pledge serves to provide a floor, thus containing the potential downside risk of the
AUDUSD
pair, since the Fed is likewise convinced of rising interest rates forcefully.
Technically speaking, we are starting to notice positive indications from a short-term viewpoint. The momentum is rising on the daily chart, with the 14-day RSI climbing from 37 to 48. Breaking 50 would mean bulls might overtake bears in the near-term.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator produced a bullish crossover signal yesterday, as the MACD line (blue line) passed from below to above the signal line (orange). Four of the six MACD crossovers that had occurred in 2022, then provided the right signal.
The 0.6875 level, which corresponds to the highs reached on July 8th, is the barrier that has to be broken in the very short term. Breaking this level might boost bulls’ convictions to target the 50-day moving average at 0.697.
Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodities analyst at Capital.com
AUDUSD
). Stronger global economic growth, a Chinese industrial recovery, more risk appetite among investors, and widespread gains in commodity prices are required for the Australian dollar to thrive. These factors would strongly reverse the Aussie’s trajectory, pushing the
AUDUSD
comfortably back above 0.70. Therefore, for the time being, the RBA’s pledge serves to provide a floor, thus containing the potential downside risk of the
AUDUSD
pair, since the Fed is likewise convinced of rising interest rates forcefully. - AUD/USD technical analysis
Technically speaking, we are starting to notice positive indications from a short-term viewpoint. The momentum is rising on the daily chart, with the 14-day RSI climbing from 37 to 48. Breaking 50 would mean bulls might overtake bears in the near-term.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator produced a bullish crossover signal yesterday, as the MACD line (blue line) passed from below to above the signal line (orange). Four of the six MACD crossovers that had occurred in 2022, then provided the right signal.
The 0.6875 level, which corresponds to the highs reached on July 8th, is the barrier that has to be broken in the very short term. Breaking this level might boost bulls’ convictions to target the 50-day moving average at 0.697.
Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodities analyst at Capital.com