Technician

#AUDUSD: Following the Price Action | #forex

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar
2277 58 33
Let me try to explain what do I mean by saying that my main indicator is the price.

  • The AUDUSD             continues the journey within the main bearish channel .
  • The Structure of lower highs and lower lows remain intact, and continues to evolve.
  • The price resumed the bearish trend after completing a pullback towards the resistance of the channel just below the 50-days SMA , where it formed a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern.
  • The pair continued to move lower to break 0.7740 horizontal support
  • The next potential support level and target at 0.7625(The Dragonfly doji low)
  • A break below 0.7625 confirm more downside and a potential target at 1.618 extension (0.7448)
  • The channel resistance should remain intact for this scenario to remain valid

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Skype: Technician - The forex channel
agree about 0.7625
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Thanks, I'm short from 0.7895 and my target (hope) 0.7300.

Good Luck
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Good luck vila
-1 Reply
Thanks mate. Didn't notice the channel. Waiting for a break and re-test of 0.7625 (with a pin bar, of course).
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Yep, i see your way, always waiting for confirmation. Requires lots of patience .
-1 Reply
Casey_Yeo Technician
Patience does pay in trading. Am really bad with breakout trading. On a side note, I sincerely thank you for regularly sharing your views/ideas here. It is encouraging to see a professional trader like you trading in quite a similar way as I do. It gives me hope. :)
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Thanks mate. please don't call me professional, cause i am just like anyone else here, possibly with a slightly better results. Nothing major :) . I think its not about having lots of knowledge, its more about spending some time on developing a strategy, and experimenting with it.
-1 Reply
Technician TOP Technician
for example, if a trader followed the simple rule and most basic fundamental technical analysis rule of highs and lows, he would probably made lots of money trading this trend.
-1 Reply
Technician TOP Technician
Its very simple yet powerful. But the issue is that our mind is inclined toward making things more complex, because we don't internally believe that simple can be a solution for such a complex thing (trading).
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Casey_Yeo Technician
Agree. Looking from another perspective. Probably trading is not complex. Our mind is the complex matter coupled with fear and greed emotions. We tend to over-analyse and holding too tight to things.
Not sure your actual plan of attacking this pair but good luck to you!
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True. Not really, am not trading it now. I just wanted to demonstrate a simple concept through this chart.
-1 Reply
Casey_Yeo Technician
To add on, I remembered someone commented that I was brave to trade without any indicators on my chart and he shared with me all the custom indicators he bought. He no longer trade currencies now.
+2 Reply
Yes, its not about the indicator, its about the trader.
-1 Reply
vila Casey_Yeo
You are right the best strategy is K.I.S.S
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Keep it simple, but not too simple.
-1 Reply
omen9 Technician
Keep it Simple, Stick to the Plan and Manage Capital
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vila omen9
Exactly
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I was wondering what your opinion of using ichimoku is.Sometimes its great but other times its so lagging.
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I don't have experience with ichimoku , sorry.
-1 Reply
luckylast Technician
ok thanks
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AshleyWeyers luckylast
If you want a really good teacher for Ichimoku, look up ChaosTrader63 on Tradeview and Youtube
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luckylast AshleyWeyers
Cool I will do thanks.
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It is not really lagging. It is a great and simple trend following technique. Of course it is not efficient on rangebound mkts or during times of consolidation. If you have any questions, I am happy to help you with Ichimoku and/or Heikin Ashi.
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luckylast Kumowizard
ThanksI will be sure to ask .
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Barabaszek luckylast
Look up Kumowizard,he use Ichimoku .
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learn more: http://1000ea.blogspot.com/2015/03/range-action-verification-index-ravi.html
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Great analysis as usual very educational aswell
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THANK YOU, I FOLLOWED YOUR ADVICE !!!!
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You are welcome
-1 Reply
Hi technician thanks for helping me to learn I really like the way you analysise the market I wish you luck
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Technician TOP manijeh.kazemi.33
Thanks manijeh, always love your support
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Long from 0,7625 stop below median line target tp1 0,8020 tp2 0,8210. Nice long with huge ratio.
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MuathAlBulbul Barabaszek
Why are you assuming a long? The US dollar is still very strong, and the AUD has no reason to pull up (at least not yet).
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Barabaszek MuathAlBulbul
Hi.I'm not assuming anything, it is only technical set up and working for now,what's happend next Who knows :-) (butterfly maybe).
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Barabaszek Barabaszek
snapshot


Nice looking indicator.
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Hi Technician, would you say the open/close is that important in a 24 hour market compared to say futures or other exchange traded products with a single session?

My guess is it isn't that relevant but it would fly in the face of candle patterns (probably one of the self fulfilled prophecies in technical analysis, like sma 50/200 s/r, fibonacci or pivot points)

Perhaps if your open/close values were in relation to the most liquid sessions for the pair...

What do you think?
+1 Reply
Technician TOP IvanLabrie
I understand your point , given that the forex market is a 24-hour market. However, for me, a daily closing is the ability to hold above a level for a sufficient period of time and preferably at the end of the U.S. session.
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO Technician
Makes sense, I'm just more partial to other methods but I understand your reasoning.
Nice post ;)
+1 Reply
Waiting cautiously to see if 0.7600 holds, I am leaning on shorting this pair, but let's wait and see!
Currently trading at 0.7638
+1 Reply
wwfm MuathAlBulbul
its will go up if Feb job report comes with good numbers
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yeah could be the case, but for the short term in my view. Dollar remains in a strong bullish trend.
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When is that due?
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Technician TOP MuathAlBulbul
In few days, check the economic calender
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MuathAlBulbul Technician
Lol, excuse my idiotic-ness. I am a bit new at this!
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Technician TOP MuathAlBulbul
Dont worry
-1 Reply
MuathAlBulbul Technician
Mr. Loay, do you have any expectations for the NZD announcments for tomorrow? I am looking at both AUDNZD and NZDJPY.
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Technician TOP MuathAlBulbul
Not really in terms of fundamentals. But watch for a dovish tone from the bank, or an unexpected rate cut. That would send the NZD down under.. Especially that there are lots of technical signs suggesting bearish NZD, but still needs confirmation.
-1 Reply
MuathAlBulbul Technician
I thought a rate cut is good for the currency, no? I read somewhere that money follows the lower interest rates.
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Technician TOP MuathAlBulbul
Not really my friend. Generally speaking, a rate cut has a negative impact on a currency.
-1 Reply
Technician TOP Technician
and the opposite is true, money flow to higher yield(interest).
-1 Reply
MuathAlBulbul Technician
How do you usually trade before big news like this?
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Technician TOP MuathAlBulbul
I usually avoid trading these events if my stop is tight. But generally i ignore most of news. In case of central bank announcements, If something unexpected happen like a rate hike or cut , I readjust my position. But as a general rule, I weight my trading 90 percent on technicals only.
+2 Reply
MuathAlBulbul Technician
Thanks for the reply. :) Will wait after announcements to decide my next step, and of course your wonderful advice!
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I agree with your bearish stance Technician. I see the potential for this pair continuing down to the .73000 level.
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Is it time to short this pair?
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MuathAlBulbul MuathAlBulbul
Is anyone here? it's almost 0.7570
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This channel/trade is still valid. Prepare yourself lads. :)
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vila MuathAlBulbul
Will be short after 76
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