AUDUSD Long start of Wave 3

AUDUSD has just come off a nice 5 wave down. I only trade on Daily charts, so I missed the Wave 1 setup because after stochastics crossed over, the trailing bar did not take out a previous bar high until 6th July. By 6th July, the stochastics were too close to the overbought region for me to go in.

On the weekly chart, there is a weak crossover up in the stochastics.

Back to the daily chart...

I may miss out again on my projected wave C up (which could be wave 3 of a larger 5 wave up) if my trading rules do not allow me to enter (i.e. stochastics cross in oversold or close to 20 and a trailing high is taken out). However, my conviction is still Long.

If I have time tomorrow, I may enter using one of the lower timeframe charts (1hr and 3hr) to time my entry if I really want to get in.

Comment:

I bit the bullet and went down to the 1hr chart. There are some nice, clear 5 wave patterns. So I place a pitchfork and mapped a 5 wave down. In about 20 hours from now, a target of 0.73 should be hit.

Since I'm going long, I placed an order at 0.739 with a stop at 0.734. If it gets fulfilled overnight AEST time, happy days.

Comment:

After I made my update comment, I saw a post by OzTrade and noticed he used a bat harmonic to project 0.738. I read up on these patterns and put a bat myself just for my own edification. I have not come across this but everyone here seems to be using them.

I drew a bat and came up with a tick under 0.738 as well. Overnight my order at 0.739 was filled whilst I was asleep.

Looks like it could well track to point D of the bat before swinging back up. It also invalidates my pitchfork and I will draw a new one when the new trend starts.

Comment:

Additionally, the actual price action hit my point D before the time I projected in my secondary pitchfork. I notice it that bar (as well as my bat) hit my Daily chart Wave A 76% retracement. Nice market symmetry!