AUDUSD (4h) - price testing outer pitchfork and cloud

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
211 0 7
I came up Anilmangal's idea for a potential sell on channel breakout and wanted to see how it looked on Ichimoku . A pitchfork helps to see the overall trend and that we are actually at a key area where we could have a breakout.

Price is testing the upper area of the cloud and it is important to note the absence of an incoming twist (which would be an extra-sign of weakness in current trend). At lower timeframe (1H), cloud has already been broken but no retracement happened yet though a twist initiating a bearish cloud is visible. So we may expect the price to correct a bit towards the 4H Kijun before trying again (maybe) to target the cloud where it is weaker (see chart). One thing to mention is that the lagging span is stuck in a crowded area with candles and Kijun very close each others. If it manages to go through this congestion, this would bring more weight to an incoming short scenario.

Some sell scenarios:
  • 4H trading entry: wait for cloud breakout and bearish Ichimoku indicators (everything under cloud)
  • 1H trading entry: wait for correction towards hourly SSB             @ 0.712, possible target @ 0.7

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