FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
157 1 0
- Scenario 1:
- PPI shows the economy is slowing
- This seems likely given the disappointing Chinese data that has been coming out lately
- Would cause a drop to the 1.015-1.017 range

Scenario 2:
- PPI surprises to the upside
- Still capped in the 1.03-1.035 range due to USD strength and bad Chinese data

- Personally, I'm risking 1.03 with 1.015 in sight. It has the highest risk/reward ratio, and I see it as most likely given a variety of economic data out of AUD and CNY             .
Also, if data is disappointing, the decline will likely accelerate due to expectations of a RBA rate cut on May 7th. The market already appears to be pricing in a good probability of this.
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