- I've highlighted the areas where the USD/JPY correlation with the Nikkei has broken down in the past calendar year. These periods happened to be during declines or flat spots in the USD/JPY. They made up almost all of the significant down trends in the past year as well. The main glaring exception is the decline ...
- After correcting at the previous 2 year trend line and 200 day MVA, the dollar has found support at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement. If you take a look back over the past couple years, this has been an area of pivotal support/resistance numerous times. I expect a bounce from this level to retest and possibly even ...
- I've been stalking this trade for a while, and everything for a downside scenario has finally come together.
- We've formed a pretty clean head and shoulders pattern right at the top of a multiyear wedge.
- This pattern is strengthened by a break of the trend line from July, but will be confirmed by a break of ...
It appears the USDJPY perfectly obeyed the Ichimoku cloud on the monthly chart. Now that it has corrected into the 9 period moving average, the stochastic is starting to show a turn to the upside as well. These clues along with the still almost perfect correlation to the Nikkei 225 give me the impression we will ...
- There are 2 current bullish divergences on the RSI.
- This could be easing of short positions into the event risk, or possibly an indication of a positive USD reaction to the NFP's.
- Obviously this will depend on the actual data, but even a release in line with expectations should produce a relief rally to the ...
While doing some analysis I found an interesting correlation between the current divergence showing up on the SPX and the divergence shown before the last major correction. Obviously we are in a 4 year bull market, but the position in this trend channel may offer some insights.
- The last time the S&P 500 broke ...
First, I'd like to focus on the technical indications of ebbing market momentum. The S&P 500 was able to finally break through to a new all time high, but it has shown a lot of hesitance since then. This shows up in the divergence between price action and the MACD(higher highs on the SPX and lower highs on the ...
- FOMC minutes in yellow, FOMC meetings in white
4 out of the past 10 FOMC Minutes releases have resulted in a reversal of the DXY trend that was set in place from the previous FOMC meeting. Each one of these reversals showed a divergence between price action and the RSI. That same indicator is showing up again ...
- Very strong support at intersection of 10 month trendline & 0.382 retracement of that rally
- DXY will see a strong bounce if retail sales & jobless claims are positive
- DXY should see a moderate recovery if data is mixed or flat considering how oversold it is
- DXY should continue falling to 0.5 fib if numbers ...
- Currently 2 doji's at the top of the Ichimoku cloud
- Stochastic extremely overbought
- Almost perfect negative correlation between the EUR/USD with FTSE, SPX
- Sitting right below the 0.382 Fib line
- If tonight's GDP is revised down there will be a decent sell off. Tomorrow's ECB decision will have a much ...
- Pushing upper boundaries of wedge
- Strongly capped at 0.5 Fib ~ 1.30
- Supported by 0.236 Fib ~ 1.294
- Euro consumer confidence will play a small role, but the huge variable is US GDP at 12:30 GMT.
- GDP > 2.5%: QE expected to end more quickly = USD positive -> EUR/USD down towards trend line support
- GDP ...
- Strongly capped by 0.236 Fib and upper wedge barrier
- Supported by 0.98 and lower wedge barrier
- ATR at lower pivot point
- I'm short on the CPI release, but there isn't a clear enough long term signal for a lasting trend just yet. A breakout appears imminent on a larger time frame.
- Scenario 1:
- PPI shows the economy is slowing
- This seems likely given the disappointing Chinese data that has been coming out lately
- Would cause a drop to the 1.015-1.017 range
- PPI surprises to the upside
- Still capped in the 1.03-1.035 range due to USD strength and bad Chinese data
- Wedging into event risk. ATR going to a minimum.
Scenario 1: Rate Cut Disappointment
- Last rate cut disappointment resulted in approximately a 200 pip increase by end of day.
- This would be capped near 1.33 the 0.236 Fib line of the 7/25/12-2/1/13 rally.
- The negative fundamentals at that time resulted in a ...
- At upper edge of 2 week channel
- Overbought RSI encountering 2 week resistance and showing signs of reversal
- MACD nearing 2 week resistance as well
- Upper edge of BB
- 3 previous cases have all shown the same technicals with a wedge into a large exhaustion move followed by an even larger drop
- If we receive ...
- Capped by downward channel, ichimoku, and 0.382 Fib all in 1.303-1.306 range
- German PMI's disappointed last night. Expecting this to continue into IFO's
- ATR at monthly low is an indication of its preparation for a large move