HughGRection

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About me 12 years investing, 4 years forex
Joined
Markets Allocation
73 % forex 24 % indices 2 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
EURUSD 24% | 10 GBPUSD 21% | 9 DXY 19% | 8 USDJPY 9% | 4
HughGRection HughGRection USDJPY, D, Long ,
USDJPY: USDJPY v NKY Correlation Dictates Next Move
542 0 1
USDJPY, D Long
USDJPY v NKY Correlation Dictates Next Move

- I've highlighted the areas where the USD/JPY correlation with the Nikkei has broken down in the past calendar year. These periods happened to be during declines or flat spots in the USD/JPY. They made up almost all of the significant down trends in the past year as well. The main glaring exception is the decline from the peak at 103.726. My assumption is that ...

HughGRection HughGRection DXY, D, Long ,
DXY: USD appears corrective at pivotal support
206 4 2
DXY, D Long
USD appears corrective at pivotal support

- After correcting at the previous 2 year trend line and 200 day MVA, the dollar has found support at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement. If you take a look back over the past couple years, this has been an area of pivotal support/resistance numerous times. I expect a bounce from this level to retest and possibly even break the previous trend line as long as the RSI ...

HughGRection HughGRection GBPUSD, D, Short ,
GBPUSD: Confluence of Technicals With Clear Targets
687 7 11
GBPUSD, D Short
Confluence of Technicals With Clear Targets

- I've been stalking this trade for a while, and everything for a downside scenario has finally come together. - We've formed a pretty clean head and shoulders pattern right at the top of a multiyear wedge. - This pattern is strengthened by a break of the trend line from July, but will be confirmed by a break of the neck line at 1.59. This also happens to be the ...

HughGRection HughGRection USDJPY, M, Long ,
USDJPY: Long Term USDJPY View
256 1 1
USDJPY, M Long
Long Term USDJPY View

It appears the USDJPY perfectly obeyed the Ichimoku cloud on the monthly chart. Now that it has corrected into the 9 period moving average, the stochastic is starting to show a turn to the upside as well. These clues along with the still almost perfect correlation to the Nikkei 225 give me the impression we will see the start of the next leg up soon. If this ...

HughGRection HughGRection DXY, 240, Long ,
DXY: USD divergence hinting at a positive reaction to NFP's
171 3 0
DXY, 240 Long
USD divergence hinting at a positive reaction to NFP's

- There are 2 current bullish divergences on the RSI. - This could be easing of short positions into the event risk, or possibly an indication of a positive USD reaction to the NFP's. - Obviously this will depend on the actual data, but even a release in line with expectations should produce a relief rally to the USD. It is currently heavily oversold against ...

HughGRection HughGRection SPX500, D, Short ,
SPX500: A cyclical look at the SPX trend channel
381 0 2
SPX500, D Short
A cyclical look at the SPX trend channel

While doing some analysis I found an interesting correlation between the current divergence showing up on the SPX and the divergence shown before the last major correction. Obviously we are in a 4 year bull market, but the position in this trend channel may offer some insights. - The last time the S&P 500 broke into the top quarter of the channel, it stayed there ...

HughGRection HughGRection SPX, D, Short ,
SPX: Why 4Q 2013 is Going to Get Ugly
239 1 2
SPX, D Short
Why 4Q 2013 is Going to Get Ugly

First, I'd like to focus on the technical indications of ebbing market momentum. The S&P 500 was able to finally break through to a new all time high, but it has shown a lot of hesitance since then. This shows up in the divergence between price action and the MACD(higher highs on the SPX and lower highs on the MACD). The case for weakness is made stronger by the ...

HughGRection HughGRection DXY, D, Long ,
DXY: RSI/DXY Divergence hints USD may reverse to rally on FOMC Mins
247 0 0
DXY, D Long
RSI/DXY Divergence hints USD may reverse to rally on FOMC Mins

- FOMC minutes in yellow, FOMC meetings in white 4 out of the past 10 FOMC Minutes releases have resulted in a reversal of the DXY trend that was set in place from the previous FOMC meeting. Each one of these reversals showed a divergence between price action and the RSI. That same indicator is showing up again prior to this release of the FOMC minutes. The DXY ...

HughGRection HughGRection DXY, W, Long ,
DXY: 2 Year Bull Trend Intact
105 0 1
DXY, W Long
2 Year Bull Trend Intact

- DXY resting on 2 year bull trend line, 0.382 Fib, and lower BB - MACD still positive - ATR at support along with the upcoming paradigm policy shift implies we are nearing a large swing

HughGRection HughGRection DXY, D, Long ,
DXY: Encountering support at 10 month trendline & 0.382 Fib
205 0 1
DXY, D Long
Encountering support at 10 month trendline & 0.382 Fib

- Very strong support at intersection of 10 month trendline & 0.382 retracement of that rally - DXY will see a strong bounce if retail sales & jobless claims are positive - DXY should see a moderate recovery if data is mixed or flat considering how oversold it is - DXY should continue falling to 0.5 fib if numbers are disappointing

HughGRection HughGRection EURUSD, D, Short ,
EURUSD: Doji at the top of the cloud
138 1 1
EURUSD, D Short
Doji at the top of the cloud

- Currently 2 doji's at the top of the Ichimoku cloud - Stochastic extremely overbought - Almost perfect negative correlation between the EUR/USD with FTSE, SPX - Sitting right below the 0.382 Fib line - If tonight's GDP is revised down there will be a decent sell off. Tomorrow's ECB decision will have a much larger impact with Friday's NFP having the final say ...

HughGRection HughGRection XAUUSD, D, Short ,
XAUUSD: Another short opportunity coming up
116 0 0
XAUUSD, D Short
Another short opportunity coming up

We're still in a solid downtrend with sell offs occurring every time it touches the cloud. This should happen again in the next couple days. There aren't any fundamental issues to change this either.

HughGRection HughGRection EURUSD, 60,
EURUSD: Contained by wedge/Fibs: Awaiting US GDP
130 0 1
EURUSD, 60
Contained by wedge/Fibs: Awaiting US GDP

- Pushing upper boundaries of wedge - Strongly capped at 0.5 Fib ~ 1.30 - Supported by 0.236 Fib ~ 1.294 - Euro consumer confidence will play a small role, but the huge variable is US GDP at 12:30 GMT. - GDP > 2.5%: QE expected to end more quickly = USD positive -> EUR/USD down towards trend line support - GDP EUR/USD above 1.30

HughGRection HughGRection USDCAD, W, Short ,
USDCAD: Wedge within a wedge = breakout
111 0 0
USDCAD, W Short
Wedge within a wedge = breakout

- Strongly capped by 0.236 Fib and upper wedge barrier - Supported by 0.98 and lower wedge barrier - ATR at lower pivot point - I'm short on the CPI release, but there isn't a clear enough long term signal for a lasting trend just yet. A breakout appears imminent on a larger time frame.

HughGRection HughGRection AUDUSD, 60, Short ,
AUDUSD: AUD PPI Scenarios
157 1 0
AUDUSD, 60 Short
AUD PPI Scenarios

- Scenario 1: - PPI shows the economy is slowing - This seems likely given the disappointing Chinese data that has been coming out lately - Would cause a drop to the 1.015-1.017 range Scenario 2: - PPI surprises to the upside - Still capped in the 1.03-1.035 range due to USD strength and bad Chinese data - Personally, I'm risking 1.03 with 1.015 in sight. ...

HughGRection HughGRection EURUSD, 15, Short ,
EURUSD: Possible ECB Rate Outcomes
554 0 4
EURUSD, 15 Short
Possible ECB Rate Outcomes

- Wedging into event risk. ATR going to a minimum. Scenario 1: Rate Cut Disappointment - Last rate cut disappointment resulted in approximately a 200 pip increase by end of day. - This would be capped near 1.33 the 0.236 Fib line of the 7/25/12-2/1/13 rally. - The negative fundamentals at that time resulted in a 500 pip decrease in the week following. Barring ...

HughGRection HughGRection GBPUSD, 60, Short ,
GBPUSD: UK GDP Expectations
427 0 2
GBPUSD, 60 Short
UK GDP Expectations

- At upper edge of 2 week channel - Overbought RSI encountering 2 week resistance and showing signs of reversal - MACD nearing 2 week resistance as well - Upper edge of BB - 3 previous cases have all shown the same technicals with a wedge into a large exhaustion move followed by an even larger drop - If we receive confirmation of a triple dip recession, 1.52 will ...

HughGRection HughGRection EURUSD, 60, Short ,
EURUSD: EUR coiling up to jump off the cliff if German IFO's disappoint
237 0 0
EURUSD, 60 Short
EUR coiling up to jump off the cliff if German IFO's disappoint

- Capped by downward channel, ichimoku, and 0.382 Fib all in 1.303-1.306 range - German PMI's disappointed last night. Expecting this to continue into IFO's - ATR at monthly low is an indication of its preparation for a large move

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