AUDUSD: Ascending Triangle with Underlying Weakness
Last night the RBA cut their growth estimate to 1.75%. After having recently cut their rate to 2.25%, this should be enough to weaken the AUD, creating selling pressure on this pair. My fundamental bias on AUDUSD is therefore bearish. If on top of that the NFP would come out favourable today, there would be one more reason to look to sell it. As always, I want to see proof of bearish PA in the chart before entering a trade.
On the technical side, we have an ascending triangle on the hourly timeframe. Price action has been contained by this chart pattern for over 3 days. There is clear regular bearish RSI divergence developing, already indicating underlying weakness and possible trend direction change from uptrend to downtrend. Looking at the timing, the moment the US data comes out today, price action will be close enough to the apex that a breakout could occur.
This trade candidate is on my watchlist. Should US data come out favourably and a break to the downside occur, I will short this pair. In terms of trade management, I would make TP1 equal to my traderisk (with SL above the flat top of the pattern), and TP2 would be open. As soon as TP1 would be hit, I would move the SL manually to break even to enjoy a risk free trade in the hunt for more pips, gradually locking in more profit by rolling down the SL.
Use your preferred method for entry and be aware that before NFP we might see some price manipulation.
UPDATE 1: Well the US data came out strong and we had an immediate spike down of 90 pips, which retraced back to the lower trendline, creating a perfect entry point for this trade. I entered at the next candle open, riding the continuation of the drop. After taking profit on 1 position for 40 pips, I rolled my SL to break even. I am holding the remainder of this trade, now risk free, over the weekend.
UPDATE 2: Exited the trade on Monday with 72 pips for the second position.
On the technical side, we have an ascending triangle on the hourly timeframe. Price action has been contained by this chart pattern for over 3 days. There is clear regular bearish RSI divergence developing, already indicating underlying weakness and possible trend direction change from uptrend to downtrend. Looking at the timing, the moment the US data comes out today, price action will be close enough to the apex that a breakout could occur.
This trade candidate is on my watchlist. Should US data come out favourably and a break to the downside occur, I will short this pair. In terms of trade management, I would make TP1 equal to my traderisk (with SL above the flat top of the pattern), and TP2 would be open. As soon as TP1 would be hit, I would move the SL manually to break even to enjoy a risk free trade in the hunt for more pips, gradually locking in more profit by rolling down the SL.
Use your preferred method for entry and be aware that before NFP we might see some price manipulation.
UPDATE 1: Well the US data came out strong and we had an immediate spike down of 90 pips, which retraced back to the lower trendline, creating a perfect entry point for this trade. I entered at the next candle open, riding the continuation of the drop. After taking profit on 1 position for 40 pips, I rolled my SL to break even. I am holding the remainder of this trade, now risk free, over the weekend.
UPDATE 2: Exited the trade on Monday with 72 pips for the second position.
You don´t need to be a weatherman to know which way the wind blows - B. Dylan
