Sforex

AUDUSD next week: breakout definitely occurs.

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
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5
A/U now stop below 23.6% Fib retracement I show on the chart.
SMA200 is now on the head of price.

Underneath the price, the bullish trend provides support.

The blockade is gradually tighter. A/U must choose the trend.

- 1 is bullish trend , pierces SMA200 and goes further to 0.94
- 2 is bearish trend , break bullish trend , and down to 0.87

This week, there is no Australia economic data, so the price move will be governed by US economic data. There is 80% possibility is US data would be positive.

Theoretically, if US economy is good, USD will be stronger,USD is bought, it means A/U falls down.
But don't forget that AUD is the most risk currency. When global economy is good or positive, AUD is bought because investors want to get profit from risk currency. Hence, even US economy is positive, USD is still sold, it means A/U still goes up.

Hence, I will wait until A/U breaks a key resistance or support level

If A/U breaks SMA100, I LONG A/U to 0.93 level.
IF A/U breaks bullish trend line , I SHORT A/U to 0.88 level.

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Comments

Just curious --- Do you place much significance on the 50%
retracement from the Oct highs to recent lows which lands
right around the .9200 area ???
Thanks for your thoughts !!!
Reply
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