glennhowell

AUDUSD | Major reversal or bull trap?

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
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I've been shorting the Aussie and Aussie crosses quite successfully over the last few weeks, enjoying the strong downtend the pair finds itself in.

Yesterday's massive intraday reversal has caught my attention.
Is this the start of a major trend change or just a pause before the selling resumes? And does it really matter?

What is interesting to note is how the pair found support on the December 2018 spike low, almost exactly to the pip.
So our conclusion is that this level here matters. Someone finds it a very good level to buy.

This rules shorts out for, at least for awhile.

The problem the bulls have is that major resistance is just ahead - consider the 0.6850 level - a price point that will need to be negotiated for any serious rally to continue.

So, my plan is thus: The larger trend is still down and I'm not fighting it. I wholly expect price to test 0.6850 - and its here that my interest is rekindled.
If price breaks through that level and starts closing above it, I'm in for the long. If it fails there, I believe we would have an excellent short opportunity.


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