Looking very hard at the AUD, but not in as yet
So today (2/4/19 in Aus), we have had a very big shift in the thinking towards the RBA and the path of rate moves in Australia. The reserve bank has made a subtle, but very important shift.
If your interested on why the AUD has had such a move, please follow this link for the take of Bill Evans from Westpac Bank, who is considered Australia"s best rate caller.
www.macrobusiness.co...-readying-rate-cuts/
I have been taking trades that involve being long AUD, but I have well and truly put those off the radar after today's developments. ( I got skinned up pretty badly over the meeting. This will be the subject of a tutorial I intend to write called "Don't do what Benny don't did")
So lets move to the charts. First the close up view and I am watching the triangular patters to watch for signs of breaking. At this very moment, we look on the verge of breaking the first area, but to me this looks impulsive and I would prefer to wait for the correction before trying a short. If your aggressive, you might want in and thats fine, but be aware a bounce will happen at some point. I am more watching the bigger wedge pattern to break, and at that point, I am keen to deploy more of a position. I am not sure when that comes, but we do have retail sales tomorrow, but I think the 2 big possibilities to send us much lower will be the RBA mins on the 16th of April and the unemployment numbers that come out on the 18th.
So, with that in mind, get short if you must, but be patient if you can.
I have placed 2 longer term charts for what I am thinking and seeing longer term with an ultimate target of around 65.50.....but thats a long way off yet and could take 6 more months to reach.
Weekly
Daily
If your interested on why the AUD has had such a move, please follow this link for the take of Bill Evans from Westpac Bank, who is considered Australia"s best rate caller.
www.macrobusiness.co...-readying-rate-cuts/
I have been taking trades that involve being long AUD, but I have well and truly put those off the radar after today's developments. ( I got skinned up pretty badly over the meeting. This will be the subject of a tutorial I intend to write called "Don't do what Benny don't did")
So lets move to the charts. First the close up view and I am watching the triangular patters to watch for signs of breaking. At this very moment, we look on the verge of breaking the first area, but to me this looks impulsive and I would prefer to wait for the correction before trying a short. If your aggressive, you might want in and thats fine, but be aware a bounce will happen at some point. I am more watching the bigger wedge pattern to break, and at that point, I am keen to deploy more of a position. I am not sure when that comes, but we do have retail sales tomorrow, but I think the 2 big possibilities to send us much lower will be the RBA mins on the 16th of April and the unemployment numbers that come out on the 18th.
So, with that in mind, get short if you must, but be patient if you can.
I have placed 2 longer term charts for what I am thinking and seeing longer term with an ultimate target of around 65.50.....but thats a long way off yet and could take 6 more months to reach.
Weekly
Daily