Jason_Stapleton
Short

AUDUSD - How Would You Trade This

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar
AUDUSD             just put in a nice head an shoulders pattern. How would you trade this? Short now? Wait for a break of the neckline? Look for a retest of the right shoulder?

Tell me your thoughts.
Like this
Pulling strongly AUDUSD to the downside - Longterm Momentum
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I would imagine that a break below the neckline, whilst perhaps conservative, is the best confirmation of the reversal in cyclicity.
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How would you hand the risk reward? Waiting for a break of the neckline gives you some very wide stops. Do you use some other indicator to place your stops?
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Sell at retest of right shoulder, IF bearish divergence is present.
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I'd ignore it and look for other set ups.
I'm not a fan of H&S they seem to appear like UFO's
and have the least definable parameters, unless they
show "perfect" symmetry. That's when they seem to have
the best probabilities.
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Great comment
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i would sell it at 0.9420 , target1 at 0.9320 ,target2 at 0.9280 . stop lose at 0,9520
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If you are more aggresive, my RSI shows still a nice potential to go lower and you can short even now. If you are more conservative just wait for the break of the neckline.
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Hi Jason, possible Bull Gartley completion at 0.93653, if it completes and reverses on the pip we could see a retest at 0.9440 /0.9441 for Bear Bat completion. Then short all the way down to 0.92677 for Bull Cypher and/or 0.9241 for Bull Bat. these last two have been in the making for a few weeks on the hourly. (Loved your Adv Patterns Course :) )
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I think we must wait for 0.94091 or if we look the daily chart for 0.94220 for structure left to complete...
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I see a chance for a short trade on a 1h chart. Bearish gartley pattern. Just waiting for C to D leg to complete
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Milos, if we're looking at the same thing, that's a Bat pattern.
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maybe I would wait for the validation of a bat pattern or a crab pattern
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Himel55 Aoieht
I thought the rule for a Bat Pattern was that the AB leg had to be a 0.382-0.5 retracement of the XA leg?
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Aoieht Himel55
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oops! thanks for the correction :P
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Also guys, if you like the conversation and/or the idea don't forget to like the chart. Helps me know what people are interested in.
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https://www.tradingview.com/e/B82Xa9uJ/
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So many retests of the .94000 level. Price action created a false breakout to the upside and is coming back down with momentum. I'm looking to short, and I will look for close to 300pips
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Jason, that's what I'm looking at right now.
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Sorry brother, That is not correct.
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MinervaFX Jason_Stapleton
well, I'm still learning ;)
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Hi Jason_Stapleton , I always follow your Youtube since your early date publishing your trading strategy.. Nice to see you here.. !!
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Hi jason and followers........ i just want to know if i am drawing these advance patterns correctly.....thanks guys
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Granted, my way of trading this setup happened last week, but I figured what the heck, I may as well post it for the fun of it.
How I would have traded the recent AU daily H&S formation
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tradingview.com/v/8ywBASEn/ Bearish bat pattern, I might be wrong since I'm still learning to trade the patterns.
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MinervaFX MinervaFX
 
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nice thoughts exchange, thanks.
50 sma daily has proven a considerable support, so would wait.
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I am not a fan of H&S patterns on the daily.

However, we could be at the start of the CD leg in bullish AB=CD move from May 5th, I also have this as a possible wave 3 on my EW count, following a complex sideways correction of the previous bull move which ended at the high on April 10th.

Since then, we had a range breakout on July 1st and a subsequent correction which almost reached the 0.618 fib, I would not be surprised to see a retest of that high from here.

I would look to place a limit buy at the last high of 0.9456, with a target at the 1.272 extension of AB 0.9580, the AB=CD completion is above this at 0.9617.
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2 target. :)

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I'd say that it isn't a H&S pattern. The left shoulder needs to be at a meaningful new high to attract attention and enthusiasm. Also, the RS you have listed has a huge, outside day and we've been inside that the last two bars = indecision in the market. This is a good time to sit aside and do nothing. Expect random action out of this type of setup. Just my thoughts. Tim
+3 Reply
I would look for a sell on the break of the neckline with my first target around the 0.9080 area.
I enjoy your look on the markets Jason. Keep up the good work. Let me know when the Constellation Software becomes available
Thanks, Sanford
sanfordpoulsen@gmail.com
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hello jason
it looks like sort aprox 093750-or 093680
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Well done Jason! I would prefer to short at this level because the resistance level seems very strong and candles are also in favor of shorting.
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wait for the break of the neckline, stop above 0.9493 and first target at 0.9210, there is a negative risk/reward ratio. I dont take that kind of risk, personally.
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go down 1 timeframe and count the legs and look/wait for failure.
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Wait for it to come back and retest the 9397 mark then get involved with the short...(may not happen)
Giving tight stops with the highest risk vs reward ;)
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First, the price action short (break through) happen on 3 july is heavy and now is back to the level to retest and got rejected confirming the level is solid. So, if you were to trade this, lets start to build the case to entry.

There are 2 advance pattern forming in the process, which is cypher and bat pattern, together with an ABCD at the CD leg.
Risk reward at this price (0.9397) is about 1:1.56, which is not so good for me. So, I will enter the trade if the price retrace close to 0.9420 (R:R 1:3.7) to SHORT.
If the price not reach, then I will pass on this trade and wait for the pattern to complete, then will see.

good luck!!
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JASON,HERE ARE MY THOUGHTS
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wait this one out see where the next high or low resides on re test it's not such a clean cut HS i'd be more inclined to buy this right now.
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hello jason (and good morning)
i thought it's false reply from me ,your question is how would you trade this,
Maybe its better first to retest the right shoulder.
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there's the call sign bullish to 0.94
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