FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
26/02/22
FORECAST FOR WEEK 1 MARCH 2022 IS = 50/50 (based on Day and Week divergence)
COMBINED FORECAST FOR MARCH 2022 = BULL (based on Week and Month alignment)

DAYS
WEEK 4 OF FEB FORECAST WAS = BEAR = INACCURATE
PROBABILITY OF DAYS FOR WEEK 1 MARCH = BEAR

This chart is trending sideways since Dec 2021. This week on this Wednesday a small shooting star formed, it is near the top of the sideways trend. On Thursday the volume increased significantly, the candle size was respectable for this chart. Thursday candle had a bottom tail, also of decent size. Friday's candle match Thursday indicates Bull can match Bear moves. Given the candles are near the top of the range there is a good probability for it to now head toward the bottom.

Note: there is a possibility, due to the war, the AUD market could be a safe haven for investors. Borders are now open, tourism is now operable it looks like a good place to invest. A slight hiccup, there are floods on the southeast, this may counteract investment possibilities



WEEK
WEEK 4 OF FEB FORECAST WAS = BULL = ACCURATE
PROBABILITY FOR WEEK 1 MARCH = BULL

4TH consistent Bull candle, matched with increasing volume. This indicates decent Bull influence that is resilient to Bear influence. This is a strong Bull position, it will be needed to break the $72 mark. The OBV supports this direction. Note the $70 is a tried and tested support level, 4 weeks ago tested this for the third time and bounced. The probability for a Bulls to rally is high.


MONTH
FORECAST IN JAN FOR FEB = BEAR = INACCURATE
FORECAST IN FEB FOR MARCH = BULL

This chart hovers at a tested support level of $72. the trend has stalled at this price point now for 3 consecutive months. Indications are the bears have lost influence. The volume of Feb has increased from January, this indicates buying pressure is on the rise. The OBV doesn't give away much but this is okay. Given the slowing momentum of the bear trend and the potential for Australia to be considered a safe place to invest, it is probable March will finish as a Bull candle. One caveat is the floods.

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