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Aussie Is Like a Kangaroo in a Cage

Long
FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
The Australian dollar has squeezed into an increasingly tight range all year. Futures traders may want to be ready in case a breakout occurs.

First, Bollinger Bandwidth is near long-term lows on both the daily and weekly charts. This isn’t necessarily bullish , however it’s interesting when you consider other positive forces at work. One of those items is the dovish Federal Reserve and weak U.S. dollar. Another is the ongoing rallies in materials like copper and iron ore. The Australian dollar typically follows those commodities .

Diplomatic tensions with China are currently holding back the Aussie. However, that creates the potential for a breakout if things improve.

Next, consider the stair-stepping price action since late March. AUDUSD held 0.76, calmly building support for three weeks. It then proceeded to the 0.77 area, where the currency spent another three weeks establishing itself.

Today it’s breaking the top of that range and is headed for its highest daily close since February 25. It could also have its second-highest weekly close since February 2018:


Finally, AUDUSD has found support at both its 50- and 100-day simple moving averages ( SMAs ).

Overall, the price charts in many global assets have stabilized recently after pullbacks in early 2021. If this trend continues, it could only be a matter of time before the Aussie starts moving again.

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Comments

Good analysis, thanks!
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