AUD/USD high conviction opportunity
Overnight we saw the Aussie take a a hammer blow.
With below-forecast Australian Q4 GDP signalling that the country officially entered a “per capita” recession for the first time since 2006. The Aussie was originally pressured by Governor Lowes reiteration of his neutral stance whilst he also noted that is hard to see an RBA rate hike this year. This is what he actually said. "RBA has flexibility to adjust monetary policy in either direction, probabilities of a rate hike or cut are evenly balanced. He also stated it is hard to imagine a rate hike this year, and it is unlikely inflation will be a problem anytime soon. Lowe added that he is confident inflation will get back to the middle of 2-3% target range, Q3 and Q4 GDP likely to be significantly below trend."This coupled with the disappointed GDP caused AUD/USD to plummet before testing 0.7050 to the downside. Another hit was dealt after JP Morgan downgraded their RBA rate forecast to two 25bps rate cuts in July and August 2019, in-line with Nomura’s forecast.
On the USD side of the equation we have the DXY initially easing from post-ISM highs wherein the index tested 97.000 to the upside and straddled around 2-week highs. The AUD weakness has spurred the USD on. I see the Aussie slipping throughout the day. Either looking to 70.50 - 60 on a pullback or a break and re-test of the lows.
With below-forecast Australian Q4 GDP signalling that the country officially entered a “per capita” recession for the first time since 2006. The Aussie was originally pressured by Governor Lowes reiteration of his neutral stance whilst he also noted that is hard to see an RBA rate hike this year. This is what he actually said. "RBA has flexibility to adjust monetary policy in either direction, probabilities of a rate hike or cut are evenly balanced. He also stated it is hard to imagine a rate hike this year, and it is unlikely inflation will be a problem anytime soon. Lowe added that he is confident inflation will get back to the middle of 2-3% target range, Q3 and Q4 GDP likely to be significantly below trend."This coupled with the disappointed GDP caused AUD/USD to plummet before testing 0.7050 to the downside. Another hit was dealt after JP Morgan downgraded their RBA rate forecast to two 25bps rate cuts in July and August 2019, in-line with Nomura’s forecast.
On the USD side of the equation we have the DXY initially easing from post-ISM highs wherein the index tested 97.000 to the upside and straddled around 2-week highs. The AUD weakness has spurred the USD on. I see the Aussie slipping throughout the day. Either looking to 70.50 - 60 on a pullback or a break and re-test of the lows.
Comment:
The expected volatility never quite came. I closed this manually for a 3 pip profit.