This chart measures the average strength of the Australian dollar against the USD, GBP, JPY and EUR. After gaining significantly since November 2020, the Australian currency has been trading sideways against its major partners since the start of the month. Australia has benefited from a number of fundamental factors including a strong rebound from Covid, rising commodity prices which it produces including copper, gold and iron ore, and a general risk off environment which dominated since the US Election in 2020.
However, in the last few weeks that acceleration has come to a screeching halt. A few issues have come helped contributed to a questionable future for the Aussie including: China's concerns about mounting commodity prices, a disappointing local jobs report for April, where Australia unexpectedly lost about 30,000 positions and yet another lockdown in Victoria, which will take a bite of out of Q2 GDP.
The gloomy outlook for the Aussie is reflected in the change in positions of Large Speculator's as they turned from nett long to nett short on AUDUSD for week 28/5/21
A data packed week ahead may help cement either the eeyore view or provide some light at the end of the tunnel. key data includes:-
Monday 9am (AWST) - China PMIs published and a soft print on these will not be good news for the Aussie
Tuesday 9.45 (AWST) - More China PMI's with the Caxin manufacturing PMI released
Tuesday 12.30pm (AWST) - RBA rate announcement and given the current jobs, inflation and wage growth prints, it is unlikely that the RBA move away from their current dovish position.
Wed 2 June 9.30am (AWST) will see the First Quarter GDP report released, and while many in the country would argue that Australian economy is booming, weak export volumes in the first three months of this year are likely to detract from that rosy position.
Thursday 3 June 9.30 Australian Balance of Trade report for May is released
However, in the last few weeks that acceleration has come to a screeching halt. A few issues have come helped contributed to a questionable future for the Aussie including: China's concerns about mounting commodity prices, a disappointing local jobs report for April, where Australia unexpectedly lost about 30,000 positions and yet another lockdown in Victoria, which will take a bite of out of Q2 GDP.
The gloomy outlook for the Aussie is reflected in the change in positions of Large Speculator's as they turned from nett long to nett short on AUDUSD for week 28/5/21
A data packed week ahead may help cement either the eeyore view or provide some light at the end of the tunnel. key data includes:-
Monday 9am (AWST) - China PMIs published and a soft print on these will not be good news for the Aussie
Tuesday 9.45 (AWST) - More China PMI's with the Caxin manufacturing PMI released
Tuesday 12.30pm (AWST) - RBA rate announcement and given the current jobs, inflation and wage growth prints, it is unlikely that the RBA move away from their current dovish position.
Wed 2 June 9.30am (AWST) will see the First Quarter GDP report released, and while many in the country would argue that Australian economy is booming, weak export volumes in the first three months of this year are likely to detract from that rosy position.
Thursday 3 June 9.30 Australian Balance of Trade report for May is released