AUDUSD Testing Key Support Levels As Retail Traders Gets Bullish

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
Since February, AUDUSD             has bounced off of key support in the 0.7550/0.7600. We're now testing that level again only a few things have changed:
  • Retail Bullish Sentiment is near its most bullish for 2015 at 3:1 Traders Bullish
  • Overnight Index Swaps are increasingly pricing in a Rate Cut by the RBA
  • US Data is Strengthening, which increases the odds of a US Sept. Hike

Given the fallout of Aussie's neighbor, the Kiwi, a similar drop could be in order if China's data continues to disappoint.

From an Elliott Wave Perspective, we could be working on a third wave of wave 5. A Fibonacci target would take us near 0.7000. This fits nicely with the sentiment and fundamental picture as the ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD             stands at 2.41 as 71% of traders are long. We use our SSI             as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives signal that the AUDUSD             may continue lower.
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