Imran.Osman
Short

AUDUSD - SHORT - Possible crab pattern forming

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar
Good day Ladies and Gents,

It has been a while since I have taken a look into the H1 TF charts. Lo and behold, I have found a possible short position for AUDUSD             .

  • in 1HR TF, price is below both SMA 200 and EMA 50 showing downtrend. This is also confirmed in the Daily and Monthly TF.
  • There is a possible crab harmonic pattern forming with the D leg yet to be completed.
  • Strong resistance at 0.73600.

Short trade once candle closes below 0.73600. SL will be at 0.73806 and TP at 0.73356 (conservative) or 0.73263 (slightly aggressive).

Happy trading everyone.

***************DISCLAIMER*****************

These are just my personal trading ideas and should not constitute as trading recommendation or advice for anyone.

Related Ideas

Interesting how you disregard the wicks in drawing your pattern. Why do you do it like that and do you find that it's better (winning %) that way? Do you also measure your ratios disregarding the wicks?
Reply
Imran.Osman EverythingForex
a year ago
Good point EverythingForex. There are 2 schools of thought when drawing patters which are generally to include or exclude wicks. My general rule for harmonic pattern is that for H1 and below, I draw based on close while H4 and above I include the wicks. There are just too much statistical outliers on H1 (in my humble opinion) and I can't make sense of anything otherwise.

Does it increase my winning %? I strongly believe that D1 and MN trend dominates all. Therefore, I use patters only as a confluence to strengthen my conviction to enter a trade. I dont base my trade solely on harmonic patterns. If you look at the overall scheme of things, yes harmonic patterns do help to increase my winning % ONLY IF it helps to strengthen the confluence.

I hope this is insightful for you and happy trading.
Reply
EverythingForex PRO Imran.Osman
a year ago
Ok. I just wanted to know if you did it like that on purpose as it's not the classical way of doing it the way it was meant to be originally by Scott Carney.If you follow my trades, you would also know that, like you, I am not a pure harmonics trader but treat harmonics as another tool to help confirm my trades. But I don't agree about there being too many statistical outliers in hourly and lower TF's to use harmonics reliably (including the wicks). I also don't agree that it can be used one way (with the wicks) in certain TF's while using another way (without the wicks) in other TF's. I think you must be consistent in the use of tools to be consistent in your trading.

But as you say, it's just my opinion. Thanks for the clarification. Good luck in your trading! Oh, BTW...I do agree about the crab pattern showing that the downtrend is not over just yet. But with the wicks!
Reply
Imran.Osman EverythingForex
a year ago
Awesome points! I am not nearly as well versed in harmonic patterns as others, and I find it refreshing that there are so many different opinions about it. As different as they areit is good to know that in both our cases, our analysis shows the same direction.

Happy trading mate!
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