Rising need for innovative law enforcement solutions. AXON long
Quantitative Analysis
• Earnings growth positive and above sector average
• Stock P/E on a premium to sector and positive
• Global Law Enforcement Software Market size is expected to grow from USD 16.4 billion in 2023 to USD 25.6 billion by 2028, according to a new report by Marketsand Markets.
• Increased rates and the changing nature of crime are major drivers for the rise in the need for innovative law enforcement solutions and services.
• Increase in US gun violence in recent years. Axon aims to cut gun-related deaths between police and the public by 50% in the next decade.
Business
• Strong demand for Axon Cloud SaaS services, Axon Fleet 3, and Taser 7
• New major products innovations – Taser 10 platform, body camera, Axon Body 4
• Axon Body 4 is currently being trialed by several agencies in the U.S. and will begin shipping in the second half of 2023.
• TASER 10 was unveiled in January 2023 and the company expects order volume to grow throughout 2023.
• Continuing to shift an increasing amount of business to a subscription model.
KPIs
• Full year 2023 revenue expected to be between $1.44 billion to $1.46 billion, reflecting approximately 22% year over year growth at the midpoint.
• Adjusted EBITDA margin of 20% in 2023.
• Expect stock-based compensation expense to be approximately $141 million for the full year.
• Expect 2023 CapEx to be in the range of $50 million to $65 million.
• Total company future contracted revenue expected to recognized between 15% to 25% of $4.8 billion over the next twelve months.
Catalysts
• Strong 2023 Q2 earnings
• Axon Body 4 and TASER 10 sales
• Investment in Cellebrite DI Ltd (“CLBT”)
Trade
Trade might take longer than expected to work. Targeting August 2023 earnings for movement.
• Earnings growth positive and above sector average
• Stock P/E on a premium to sector and positive
• Global Law Enforcement Software Market size is expected to grow from USD 16.4 billion in 2023 to USD 25.6 billion by 2028, according to a new report by Marketsand Markets.
• Increased rates and the changing nature of crime are major drivers for the rise in the need for innovative law enforcement solutions and services.
• Increase in US gun violence in recent years. Axon aims to cut gun-related deaths between police and the public by 50% in the next decade.
Business
• Strong demand for Axon Cloud SaaS services, Axon Fleet 3, and Taser 7
• New major products innovations – Taser 10 platform, body camera, Axon Body 4
• Axon Body 4 is currently being trialed by several agencies in the U.S. and will begin shipping in the second half of 2023.
• TASER 10 was unveiled in January 2023 and the company expects order volume to grow throughout 2023.
• Continuing to shift an increasing amount of business to a subscription model.
KPIs
• Full year 2023 revenue expected to be between $1.44 billion to $1.46 billion, reflecting approximately 22% year over year growth at the midpoint.
• Adjusted EBITDA margin of 20% in 2023.
• Expect stock-based compensation expense to be approximately $141 million for the full year.
• Expect 2023 CapEx to be in the range of $50 million to $65 million.
• Total company future contracted revenue expected to recognized between 15% to 25% of $4.8 billion over the next twelve months.
Catalysts
• Strong 2023 Q2 earnings
• Axon Body 4 and TASER 10 sales
• Investment in Cellebrite DI Ltd (“CLBT”)
Trade
Trade might take longer than expected to work. Targeting August 2023 earnings for movement.
Trade closed: stop reached:
Stop loss hit. However. still confident with the fundamentals. Will wait for a bullish price action to enter again.