BarclayJames

BCHUSD breaks downtrend

BITTREX:BCCUSDT   None
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Bitcoin Cash broke out today on the log chart. I think log resistance is generally more representative of a breakout than linear particularly at these price differences (time scales). They also occur after breakouts on linear charts so they are definitely better signals.

Based on the Oct 2017 breakout, I expect some kind of initial pump followed by a pullback and fallow period and thereafter a potential bull run. Be mindful however, I do not trust the current low volume market. The exchanges have and do still imho manipulate the price. The trading volume is extremely low and you would think such a breakout would attract a great many bulls. Well, where are they?

Anyway... it's very possible the BTC price might reach the 200 daily MA (about 9200 USD). This is a significant resistance. If BTC fails there, BCH will crash too.

Comment: Interesting volume comparison between last breakout and this one. There is literally no no volume. I'm not convinced at all about this breakout tbh, I want to be but it just doesn't look right
Comment: Looks like the 200 MA turned out to be a substantial resistance BTC. If we close under today, there is a good chance of a reversal downwards tomorrow, either a pullback or continuation of the downtrend. Any pullback will affect BCH gains.
Comment: I'm not optimistic that this breakout will be sustained, however the rejection of BTC at the 200 MA may be either a slight pullback or a resumption of the downtrend.
Comment: BCHUSD has dipped below the trendline. Like I said I do not feel confident in this attempted breakout and I still feel BTC has another 2 months of mostly downward travel.
Comment: I have a suspicion BCH is at the end of its first cycle and this correction will see us losing the trading channel in the chart.
Comment: BCH lost that channel it was in. No biggie, this is an intercycle correction obviously. I think there are good parallels between early Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash. BCH making the same growth pattern in my opinion
excellent analysis, all eyes on that 200ma, any thoughts on how looming death cross will play in?
Reply
BarclayJames Bobby_Petrino
@Bobby_Petrino, Hi, I'm not sure my thoughts really are that the breakout is too early but hey it's there already. If we do properly break the 200 dMA then sentiment will definitely turn bullish, I'll also be more optimistic of a quick turn around, but it's been a real barrier in the past. Sometime it was broken but the price didn't manage to pull away and just lingered before eventually falling back under. If we get rejected then the death cross will certainly happen and yes that means bear market, but if the price can move up quick enough then we can avoid it (like April 2013).
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