Bitcoin's next bubble: are we heading for $12,000 next summer?

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Time for some wild speculation, looking at where we might be in a year, if the bulls have their way. The next "reward halving" coming in July 2016 could easily fuel another bubbly rally (whether you think that's a valid reason or not :P)

I've been using this dusty old fork for a really long time now, and at this weekly scale, there's a lot of wiggle room. So don't complain about it not fitting perfectly, or how the wicks seem off - because this is price data from, and doesn't include all the price action (AFAIK). There's no "right way" to fit the fork at this scale. I just find it useful to try and identify the super-long-term growth trendlines and potential channel harmonics.

Today, our resident chikun-herder, @fontas made a bold prediction in chat of BTC reaching $120K in two years. I thought I'd dust off this old chart and see how such an outrageous forecast could play out. While I couldn't really make sense of $120K on this chart, I did find the trajectory from here to $12K plausible (just a tenth, but still juicy :P), especially looking back at the history of the other mega bubbles in BTC's lifespan. And the timing of such a target would put us in June 2016, exactly 5 years after the first mega bubble, and also eerily aligned with the "33 week cycle" that has framed the larger movements for years (see the 1,2,3,4 columns)

I also scribbled the pink line to show what another "double-bubble" scenario would look like according to this timeframe, if we to repeat the combination bull runs of 2013             . We'd hit maybe $2,000 in october before pulling back for the second push.

Check back next summer, but place your bets now, because if this is even remotely correct, we've got a 48X profit train getting started...
Comment: Well, it's only a year late, but maybe this is the summer we make it to 12K?

Even though the timing is off, the channels in this chart are insanely accurate. Good job!
good job
Oh god yes yes yes plz more don't tell any of the fuking GROWNUPS!
Target price is missed by 95% .... but you did 2,5x your investment. Your ability to value bitcoin is worst than your bank account.
It would take $43,200,000 (or $21.600.000 after the halving) per day to sustain this price level. I don't believe this is realistic.
danpishes Mooncake
So let's assume it's going global. That works out at a truly insane $21,600 per country per day. I think we can do this.
danpishes danpishes
Edit - $216,000
Oh boy! That would be epic. :D
im all in babyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy
Hello, good analysis, thank you for that. If I look at it in EW terms you can see 1 complete in June 2011, the three in Nov 2013 and now the 4 and indeed the 5 coming... Later this evening I will try to check this more thoroughly. Bert
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