Bitcoin's next bubble: are we heading for $12,000 next summer?

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Time for some wild speculation, looking at where we might be in a year, if the bulls have their way. The next "reward halving" coming in July 2016 could easily fuel another bubbly rally (whether you think that's a valid reason or not :P)

I've been using this dusty old fork for a really long time now, and at this weekly scale, there's a lot of wiggle room. So don't complain about it not fitting perfectly, or how the wicks seem off - because this is price data from, and doesn't include all the price action (AFAIK). There's no "right way" to fit the fork at this scale. I just find it useful to try and identify the super-long-term growth trendlines and potential channel harmonics.

Today, our resident chikun-herder, @fontas made a bold prediction in chat of BTC             reaching $120K in two years. I thought I'd dust off this old chart and see how such an outrageous forecast could play out. While I couldn't really make sense of $120K on this chart, I did find the trajectory from here to $12K plausible (just a tenth, but still juicy :P), especially looking back at the history of the other mega bubbles in BTC's lifespan. And the timing of such a target would put us in June 2016, exactly 5 years after the first mega bubble, and also eerily aligned with the "33 week cycle" that has framed the larger movements for years (see the 1,2,3,4 columns)

I also scribbled the pink line to show what another "double-bubble" scenario would look like according to this timeframe, if we to repeat the combination bull runs of 2013. We'd hit maybe $2,000 in october before pulling back for the second push.

Check back next summer, but place your bets now, because if this is even remotely correct, we've got a 48X profit train getting started...
Comment: Well, it's only a year late, but maybe this is the summer we make it to 12K?

Comment: Better late than never? At least when you're hodling... ;)

i love your work. many thanks
looks like a good time to buy based on this chart.
+1 Reply
vbb xdwingdx
@xdwingdx, that's exactly what I said
Reply still hit your target....awesome
Nice job, hope you made some coin after the mt gox debacle
So do you think this current upswing is going to mimic the the previous 2013 moves? That would mean a push to $50-60k then a pullback for a run up to $200k ?!
Jameve Bonavest
@Bonavest, play it by ear, dont lose another 30k loan
@Jameve, LOL haven't LOST money on bitcoin overall, but the $10k I walked away with is nothing compared to what a true HODLer is sitting on right now. SMH
Even though the timing is off, the channels in this chart are insanely accurate. Good job!
good job
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