ronfkingswanson
Long

Bitcoin's next bubble: are we heading for $12,000 next summer?

QUANDL:BCHAIN/MKPRU   BCHAIN/MKPRU
5339 7 31
Time for some wild speculation, looking at where we might be in a year, if the bulls have their way. The next "reward halving" coming in July 2016 could easily fuel another bubbly rally (whether you think that's a valid reason or not :P)

I've been using this dusty old fork for a really long time now, and at this weekly scale, there's a lot of wiggle room. So don't complain about it not fitting perfectly, or how the wicks seem off - because this is price data from blockchain.info, and doesn't include all the price action (AFAIK). There's no "right way" to fit the fork at this scale. I just find it useful to try and identify the super-long-term growth trendlines and potential channel harmonics.

Today, our resident chikun-herder, @fontas made a bold prediction in chat of BTC reaching $120K in two years. I thought I'd dust off this old chart and see how such an outrageous forecast could play out. While I couldn't really make sense of $120K on this chart, I did find the trajectory from here to $12K plausible (just a tenth, but still juicy :P), especially looking back at the history of the other mega bubbles in BTC's lifespan. And the timing of such a target would put us in June 2016, exactly 5 years after the first mega bubble, and also eerily aligned with the "33 week cycle" that has framed the larger movements for years (see the 1,2,3,4 columns)

I also scribbled the pink line to show what another "double-bubble" scenario would look like according to this timeframe, if we to repeat the combination bull runs of 2013. We'd hit maybe $2,000 in october before pulling back for the second push.

Check back next summer, but place your bets now, because if this is even remotely correct, we've got a 48X profit train getting started...
Hello, good analysis, thank you for that. If I look at it in EW terms you can see 1 complete in June 2011, the three in Nov 2013 and now the 4 and indeed the 5 coming... Later this evening I will try to check this more thoroughly. Bert
+1 Reply
pornhawb
a year ago
im all in babyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy
Reply
Yobears
a year ago
Oh boy! That would be epic. :D
Reply
Mooncake
a year ago
It would take $43,200,000 (or $21.600.000 after the halving) per day to sustain this price level. I don't believe this is realistic.
Reply
danpishes Mooncake
a year ago
So let's assume it's going global. That works out at a truly insane $21,600 per country per day. I think we can do this.
Reply
danpishes danpishes
a year ago
Edit - $216,000
Reply
bloch_charles
3 months ago
Target price is missed by 95% .... but you did 2,5x your investment. Your ability to value bitcoin is worst than your bank account.
Reply
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