BCH - New lows eventually?

The current price is bouncing between two ranges marked by red and green arrows, we have resistance from 21 Weekly average (330) and support from 50 moving average (309), one of them has to give way

RSI recently got rejected from top of the channel (red arrow) and now below 50, likely will go to bottom of channel

The bearish rising wedge is an obvious pattern which now is breaking down, if this plays out we likely retest the lows or make new lows, but it will not be a straight path down, there should be bounces on the way.

Comment:

From Elliott Wave perspective, if this is a 1st wave leading diagonal (or A wave), it can be considered bullish and the beginning of a new cycle.

But wave 2 retracement will be be deep, below $200

To confirm this we need to break to new highs after the retracement

Comment:

Six weeks later we are still stuck in the range but slowly appear to slipping down, 50WMA at $284 has held many times but may not hold with another drop, thats the last hope for bulls

The green support line held for six weeks (red box) and now for the last 2-3 weeks its acting as resistance

Trade closed: target reached:

We did get new low at $198, and almost bounced from our expected line at $189 from previous chart

After the sharp 50% bounce, we are seeing resistance at the same line (red) that acted as support in Aug.

In addition, the 21 Weekly MA (green) was a barrier since july and acting as resistance again now