Critique-al-Thinker

Bitcoin Cash has Bullish Setup within Longer-Term Diagonal Rally

Long
KRAKEN:BCHUSD   Bitcoin Cash / U.S. Dollar
Bitcoin Cash ( BCHUSD ) appears not only complete with its wave (ii) pullback, but we may already have another nested i-ii setup in place. That means we are in a great BUY position unlike with many other cryptos which have started to run away with stronger rallies. As the rally continues across the crypto sector, it will become increasingly risky to deploy large cash amounts, so DCA (dollar-cost-averaging) will be your friend!

In the long-term big picture, I have reworked and simplified the chart. I am interpreting the rally from the March 2020 bottom to the May 2021 top as an Elliott Wave Diagonal structure. Diagonals are characterized by deep retracements with their 4th waves often pulling back so deep that they overlap the preceding 1st wave's peak. They also tend to stay within a trend channel and contain subwaves which don't look like true 5-wave impulses but rather 3-wave ABC patterns. Our crash from the May 2021 top would be too deep to be the 4th wave of an impulsive rally structure but fits the requirements of a diagonal rally structure almost perfectly!

If we can hold immediate support at 533, we've got our subwave (iii) targeting between 1334 and 1592 for a more than 2x return from where we are right now. The subsequent 4th wave consolidation may last multiple months as 4th waves tend to be slow and sideways. The final subwave (v) top is targeting between 1776 and 2120 for a 3x return. However, there is a strong confluence at the 0.618 extension of the larger 3-4 pattern, which falls at 2562 (4.5x return!) There is also an outside shot that we make it to the 0.764 Fibonacci extension around 4000 (close to the ATH ) for a 7x return, but this is a low-probability at this time.

This top will likely coincide with a MAJOR top in BTC and ETH and will likely be followed by a lengthy crash across the crypto sector. I expect the pullback to be a major Wave 2,. I addition, diagonal rallies usually proceed sharp reversals; that alone should be enough deterrence from trying to 'hodl' thru a long bear market. Thus, this would be a great opportunity to take profits and reallocate into other assets or even Stablecoins. However, the ensuing major crash could give us an even better buying opportunity to send us up to the 4400-4500 range! Farther out, provided that the larger pattern holds 6800 could be within reach with the 11k target looming overhead, which happens to have very strong Fibonacci confluence across timelines.

I use Elliott Wave analysis to project price levels for different assets and asset classes. EW is a form a technical analysis that is absolutely NOT based on fundamentals. Please be aware that this video is not intended to act as financial advice. I am not a trained or certified financial professional. You may invest based on a strategy tailored to your own skill and risk-tolerance levels.

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