TradingShot

BITCOIN Fib extension theory shows we are nowhere near the Top!

Long
BNC:BLX   BraveNewCoin Liquid Index for Bitcoin
This is a really interesting study using the Parabolic Growth Curve as basis, a subject that I used to research a lot in the past but haven't looked into it recently.


** The Parabolic Growth Curve and the Fibonacci Channel extensions **
So to begin with, observe the green dashed curves on the chart. Those who follow me for long, will recognize them as the curves that form Bitcoin's Parabolic Growth Channel, essentially the ultimate Buy Zone historically. As you see on every major cycle, buying there always paid off, even when the price was consolidating.

On that Zone (illustrated in green), I apply the Fibonacci Channel:

- On BTC's 1st Cycle, the Top was formed right below the 2.0 Fibonacci extension of this Channel.
- On the 2nd Cycle, the Top was formed just before hitting the 3.0 Fibonacci extension .
- Similarly on the 3rd Cycle, the Top was formed right below the 4.0 Fib ext .

As you realize the pattern is arithmetic and every Cyclical Top is one Fib higher. Naturally the mind assumes that on Bitcoin's current (4th) Cycle, the Top could be on the 5.0 Fibonacci extension . On the current (1W) candle vertical that is around $300000! If that holds true (for the 5.0 Fib) and history repeats itseld , then since naturally such a huge price jump can't happen overnight, when could the price meet the 5.0 Fib ext?


** The Fibonacci Time Zone **
Timing the 4.0 Fib Top can be executed by applying the Fibonacci Time Zone tool.

- As you see that's illustrated in orange on my chart and on the 1st Cycle it is fully measured as is on 0.0 to 1.0 from start to finish (Top).
- If we apply that Time format on the 2nd Cycle, we see that its Top is on the 2.3 Fib Time extension.
- Similarly on the 3rd Cycle, the Top is on the 3.3 Fib Time extension.

Again we see a progression, which indicates that every Cyclical Peak is +1.0 from the previous. The logical assumption would be that the next Cyclical Top (4th Cycle) may be timed on the 4.3 Fib Time extension. That is in late September 2022! What's even more captivating is that by that time the 5.0 Fib extension on the Fibonacci Growth Channel will be a little over $600000!

We have seen Bitcoin going 10X before, even recently this past year, but at the moment how realistic do you think it is for BTC to grow 10 times from the current price?

Do you think this Fibonacci Channel and Time Zone collective analysis is Bitcoin's Cheatsheet moving forward?


Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!



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Comments

Thank you for your hard work.
100 coins
+6 Reply
TradingShot hujianghua
@hujianghua, Thank you for your generous donation!
Reply
I kind of agree with your analysis ;)
+12 Reply
Someone just bought 12000 Bitcoin on coinbase https://cryptoquant.com/overview/full/413?window=hour
This is just a shake out of weak hands, don't get folled here ;)
Total same as last times
+7 Reply
sofiasofia crypto008
@crypto008, That means, that someone else sold 12.000 btcs. And the seller wasnt someone among us ;-]
+2 Reply
sfll sofiasofia
@sofiasofia, Doesn't necessarily mean that. It can perfectly be 12k people selling 1k btc each to this guy who gets 12k btc. There are million combinations that can sum up to those 12k btc.
Reply
@sfll,
And it all means the same thing: sell volume for 12k btc was there...
Reply
sfll Trendbeat
@Trendbeat, Affirmative
Reply
Trendbeat sofiasofia
@sofiasofia,
You never know what went on until it is in pretty good history.
"Same as last time" can only happen so many times.
It is memes and hopium.
Reply
Previous trends can only be used to predict future if the market conditions such as volume, demand, political influences, global world financial conditions etc. are same. Previous bull runs of bitcoin was not attracting the big investors due to high risk and the volume of $$$ involved was less: traders are under more stress writing such big numbers, I guess 60k is also such a limit that human perception created when putting orders of millions of dolars of stop orders or life time investments a round number is easier :) .. those are hard decisions. When such "clever money" is involved I don't think people will take such huge risks like like in previous runs. As bigger players are included market will go more stable I believe it is better on the long term for traders to trade with less risk and stress but not good for dreamers.
+4 Reply
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