I see two possible scenarios for decline into late Oct or early Nov to either ~$26k or $17k. I’m not at all confident that $37k will hold up, and if so that’s an M pattern which is not going to bottom above $30k.
If drops below $20k, that would be the first time ever declining below the ATH that preceded a multi-year cryptowinter!!
The 2019 – 2020 combined with 2012 – 2013 patterns combine to show that if bottoms below $20k, then after bouncing to ~$58 – 64k by March 2022, there would be giganormous flash crash to below $4k by May 2022. We would never see a new ATH again.
OBVIOUSLY THAT WOULD HAVE TO BE THE POSITED BITCOIN DONATIONS ATTACK.
There’s nothing else I can imagine which would collapse the price to that degree next year.
If drops below $20k, that would be the first time ever declining below the ATH that preceded a multi-year cryptowinter!!
The 2019 – 2020 combined with 2012 – 2013 patterns combine to show that if bottoms below $20k, then after bouncing to ~$58 – 64k by March 2022, there would be giganormous flash crash to below $4k by May 2022. We would never see a new ATH again.
OBVIOUSLY THAT WOULD HAVE TO BE THE POSITED BITCOIN DONATIONS ATTACK.
There’s nothing else I can imagine which would collapse the price to that degree next year.
Comment:
The great thing is we do not need to be correct about the timing of the posited donations attack. We can simply sell in March and then if there is no such attack we can repurchased at lower prices. Those who will suffer are those unwilling to sell at $58 – 64k before they have tax implications or think they can just hodl for $100k. Remember many W.O. OGs want to cash out $100+k, so presumably there will be something to at least scare the shit out of them before that, and possibly also swipe their BTC.
Comment:
Correcting the chart for the posited narrative. Also August 2024 is too slow because the rally from the low will be faster than from March 2020 as was the case for the corresponding case in 2012 – 2013 also because people will remember March 2020 and BTFD like crazy. So I am looking for the final top late 2022 or early 2023 and $300 – 500k.
I’m thinking the posited donations attack will come after the said final top because TPTB would want to fleece all those who are buying that massive rise in the price. After the posited attack there won’t be any way for some years hence to easily buy legacy Bitcoin that survives because the exchanges will be wiped out by the attack and confusion will reign. Thus analogous to the top in 2013, a multi-year cryptowinter will ensue as Bitcoin will be universally despised and attacked by nation-states.
This is going to be amazing enriching if true.
Now I can adjust my altcoin analyses based on this narrative.
I’m thinking the posited donations attack will come after the said final top because TPTB would want to fleece all those who are buying that massive rise in the price. After the posited attack there won’t be any way for some years hence to easily buy legacy Bitcoin that survives because the exchanges will be wiped out by the attack and confusion will reign. Thus analogous to the top in 2013, a multi-year cryptowinter will ensue as Bitcoin will be universally despised and attacked by nation-states.
This is going to be amazing enriching if true.
Now I can adjust my altcoin analyses based on this narrative.
Correction, the failure of USDT (Tether could caused such a precipitous crash) but why would that not also coincide with the posited donations attack? What else could send Bitcoin skyrocketing back up if there is no Tether printing money out-of-thin-air?
Are ETHs really going to become a reality in mid-2022? Would that drive the new egregious ATHs after a Tether collapse?