Historic Volume Profiles + Chinese Big Three Volume
In this analysis a volume price trend or volume profile technique is used to show the prices of greatest historic volume for Bitcoin.
The built-in Volume Profile (VPVR) indicator can be used to build a more detailed profile, however the exchange volume data used in this analysis is not available on TradingView.
The red and grey volume profiles (horizontal bands) above correspond to the high volume regions that are described below.
These volume profiles can be thought of as significant support and resistance zones.
Also charted are yearly pivots for 2018 and 2019 (violet), high volume trading days for 2018 (green), and high leverage pivots from 2017 (yellow).
The volume shown is in Bitcoin, and in total 3096 daily volumes were analyzed (2010/07/17—2019/01/18)
Due to lack of normality in data, percentiles were used to determine high volume regions
The ticker plotted is BLX (Brave New Coin Bitcoin Liquid Index) which consists of the following constituents:
Bitfinex, Bitstamp, BTC-e, BTCC, Coinsetter, GDax, Gemini, itBit, Kraken, Mt.Gox, OKCoin (CNY pair BTCC, EUR pair Kraken, USD pair others)
The red volume profiles were created using data from the following exchanges, for all currencies.
ANXBTC, Bit2C, BitBay, BitBay, Bitcoin Indonesia, Bitcoinde, Bitcoins Norway, Bitcurex, Bitfinex, bitFlyer, BitMarket, Bitstamp, Bit-x, BTC Markets, BTCC*, BTC-e, CampBX, CampBX, CAVIRTEX, CEX.IO, CleverCoin, Coinfloor, Coinsetter, EXMO, Gatecoin, GDax, Gemini, HitBTC, Huobi*, itBit, Justcoin, Korbit, Kraken, lakeBTC, Mercado Bitcoin, Mt.Gox, OKCoin*, Paymium, Rmbtb, TheRockTrading, Vaultoro
*Chinese Big Three
The grey volume profiles were created from all the exchanges above, minus the Chinese Big Three exchanges.
No derivatives or OTC included in volume profiles (e.g. BitMEX, Bitkan, LocalBitcoins, BitQuick, Wall of Coins)
(An area locating high volume period for LocalBitcoins is shown)
The Chinese Big Three exchanges (BTCC, Huobi, OKCoin) represented more than 90% of all Bitcoin trading volume before People's Bank of China (PBoC) intervention.
This ‘China FUD’ period began in January 2017, when PBoC along with local financial authorities investigated the Big Three exchanges.
No regulations were instituted, but by end of January 2017 the Big Three discontinued margin trading and zero-fee trading.
**From January 2014 through January 2017, the Big Three represented 92% of all Bitcoin trading volume**
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Two 'islands' of volume can be identified through this analysis (red volume profiles).
The first island formed in late November of 2015, and extended until late March of 2016.
This first island volume ranged from a low of $316.77 to a high of $475.62, with a bulk of volume occurring ~$400-440.
The second island formed in mid September of 2016, and extended until mid January of 2017.
This second island volume ranged from a low of $584.94 to a high of $1180.02, with a bulk of volume occurring in two ranges: ~$650-700 and ~$800-1000.
Throughout these island periods over 80% of volume was from the Big Three exchanges, at times 98% of volume was traded on the Big Three.
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Removing the Big Three trading volume from analysis results in a slightly different volume distribution (grey volume profiles).
The high volume islands are found in November 2015 through February 2016, June 2016, May 2017, and a final island extending from November 2017 through March 2018.
High (90th percentile) trading volume months are as follows:
April 2013, November 2015, December 2015, February 2016, June 2016, May 2017, November 2017-March 2018
None of the peak trading volume months are found in the Willy Bot era, in which a Mt.Gox bot allegedly initiated trades to produce 'fake' trading volume from late July 2013 through November 2013
Furthermore, LocalBitcoins volume was highest from February 2015 through May 2016, with significant volume extending into April 2017 before falling off.
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Underlying Shelf
2015/10/12--2017/01/23
Volume 1,296,895,211 Mean 2,759,352
O 248.47 H 1180.02 L 248.47 C 916.04
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Island 1
2015/11/25--2016/03/31
Volume 390,799,862 Mean 3,053,124
O 320.93 H 475.62 L 316.77 C 415.82
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Mesa
2015/02/29-2015/03/31
Volume 153,603,151 Mean 4,800,098
O 436.38 H 446.38 L 393.04 C 415.82
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Island 2
2016/09/18--2017/01/18
Volume 591,574,697 Mean 4,809,550
O 606.26 H 1180.02 L 584.94 C 887.30
----------------------------
Mountains
Volume 318,794,889.92
2016/10/26--2016/11/04
Volume 83,415,906 Mean 8,341,591
O 662.99 H 759.26 L 662.99 C 702.57
2016/11/12--2016/11/17
Volume 51,439,151 Mean 8,573,192
O 723.21 H 787.79 L 687.04 C 763.40
2016/11/30--2016/12/01
Volume 15,604,301 Mean 7,802,150
O 735.11 H 758.72 L 733.72 C 757.18
2016/12/09--2016/12/12
Volume 33,878,552 Mean 8,469,638
O 768.56 H 784.04 L 768.31 C 781.34
2016/12/21--2016/12/28
Volume 64,501,533 Mean 8,062,692
O 803.86 H 982.06 L 802.23 C 981.83
2017/01/04--2017/01/07
Volume 47,431,664 Mean 11,857,916
O 1040.19 H 1180.02 L 817.74 C 907.76
----------------------------
Summits
2016/11/03
Volume 13,817,953
O 751.64 H 759.23 L 670.35 C 689.15
2016/11/15—2016/11/16
Volume 23,227,183 Mean 11,613,592
O 713.01 H 774.77 L 711.52 C 772.16
2016/12/21—2016/12/22
Volume 22,529,218 Mean 11,264,609
O 803.86 H 878.05 L 802.23 C 864.2
2017/01/04-2017/01/05
Volume 28,043,003 Mean 14,021,501
O 1040.19 H 1180.02 L 899.59 C 1011.04
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Last 90th percentile volume day: 2017/01/18
2017 80th percentile volume days: 01/01-01/23, 09/14-09/15, 11/12, 11/29, 12/07, 12/22
2018 80th percentile volume days: 01/17, 02/02, 02/05-02/06, 11/20
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Total volume by year
2010: 2,666,238
2011: 6,261,172
2012: 24,164,883
2013: 43,625,281
2014: 82,258,083
2015: 253,108,985
2016: 1,044,253,415
2017: 163,266,263
2018: 44,667,716
Highest volume months
March 2016: 148,693,421
October 2016: 115,658,782
November 2016: 175,517,926
December 2016: 170,989,251
January 2017: 107,943,195
90th percentile volume days by year
Pre-2015: 1
2015: 49
2016: 245
2017: 16
2018: 0
Median/Mean daily volume by year
2015: 389,877/693,449
2016: 2,168,318/2,853,151
2017: 149,708/447,305
2018: 100,779/122,377
In this analysis a volume price trend or volume profile technique is used to show the prices of greatest historic volume for Bitcoin.
The built-in Volume Profile (VPVR) indicator can be used to build a more detailed profile, however the exchange volume data used in this analysis is not available on TradingView.
The red and grey volume profiles (horizontal bands) above correspond to the high volume regions that are described below.
These volume profiles can be thought of as significant support and resistance zones.
- Current Bitcoin price is far higher than recent and smaller support volume (e.g. ~$1300-1900)
- Upward movement will face significant resistance based on 2017-2018 distribution volume (e.g. ≳$5500)
- Strongest support volume formed September 2016 through January 2017 (e.g. ~$600-1200, strongest ~$700-1000)
Also charted are yearly pivots for 2018 and 2019 (violet), high volume trading days for 2018 (green), and high leverage pivots from 2017 (yellow).
The volume shown is in Bitcoin, and in total 3096 daily volumes were analyzed (2010/07/17—2019/01/18)
Due to lack of normality in data, percentiles were used to determine high volume regions
The ticker plotted is BLX (Brave New Coin Bitcoin Liquid Index) which consists of the following constituents:
Bitfinex, Bitstamp, BTC-e, BTCC, Coinsetter, GDax, Gemini, itBit, Kraken, Mt.Gox, OKCoin (CNY pair BTCC, EUR pair Kraken, USD pair others)
The red volume profiles were created using data from the following exchanges, for all currencies.
ANXBTC, Bit2C, BitBay, BitBay, Bitcoin Indonesia, Bitcoinde, Bitcoins Norway, Bitcurex, Bitfinex, bitFlyer, BitMarket, Bitstamp, Bit-x, BTC Markets, BTCC*, BTC-e, CampBX, CampBX, CAVIRTEX, CEX.IO, CleverCoin, Coinfloor, Coinsetter, EXMO, Gatecoin, GDax, Gemini, HitBTC, Huobi*, itBit, Justcoin, Korbit, Kraken, lakeBTC, Mercado Bitcoin, Mt.Gox, OKCoin*, Paymium, Rmbtb, TheRockTrading, Vaultoro
*Chinese Big Three
The grey volume profiles were created from all the exchanges above, minus the Chinese Big Three exchanges.
No derivatives or OTC included in volume profiles (e.g. BitMEX, Bitkan, LocalBitcoins, BitQuick, Wall of Coins)
(An area locating high volume period for LocalBitcoins is shown)
The Chinese Big Three exchanges (BTCC, Huobi, OKCoin) represented more than 90% of all Bitcoin trading volume before People's Bank of China (PBoC) intervention.
This ‘China FUD’ period began in January 2017, when PBoC along with local financial authorities investigated the Big Three exchanges.
No regulations were instituted, but by end of January 2017 the Big Three discontinued margin trading and zero-fee trading.
**From January 2014 through January 2017, the Big Three represented 92% of all Bitcoin trading volume**
------------------------------------------------------------
Two 'islands' of volume can be identified through this analysis (red volume profiles).
The first island formed in late November of 2015, and extended until late March of 2016.
This first island volume ranged from a low of $316.77 to a high of $475.62, with a bulk of volume occurring ~$400-440.
The second island formed in mid September of 2016, and extended until mid January of 2017.
This second island volume ranged from a low of $584.94 to a high of $1180.02, with a bulk of volume occurring in two ranges: ~$650-700 and ~$800-1000.
Throughout these island periods over 80% of volume was from the Big Three exchanges, at times 98% of volume was traded on the Big Three.
------------------------------------------------------------
Removing the Big Three trading volume from analysis results in a slightly different volume distribution (grey volume profiles).
The high volume islands are found in November 2015 through February 2016, June 2016, May 2017, and a final island extending from November 2017 through March 2018.
High (90th percentile) trading volume months are as follows:
April 2013, November 2015, December 2015, February 2016, June 2016, May 2017, November 2017-March 2018
None of the peak trading volume months are found in the Willy Bot era, in which a Mt.Gox bot allegedly initiated trades to produce 'fake' trading volume from late July 2013 through November 2013
Furthermore, LocalBitcoins volume was highest from February 2015 through May 2016, with significant volume extending into April 2017 before falling off.
------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------
Underlying Shelf
2015/10/12--2017/01/23
Volume 1,296,895,211 Mean 2,759,352
O 248.47 H 1180.02 L 248.47 C 916.04
------------------------------------------------------------
Island 1
2015/11/25--2016/03/31
Volume 390,799,862 Mean 3,053,124
O 320.93 H 475.62 L 316.77 C 415.82
----------------------------
Mesa
2015/02/29-2015/03/31
Volume 153,603,151 Mean 4,800,098
O 436.38 H 446.38 L 393.04 C 415.82
------------------------------------------------------------
Island 2
2016/09/18--2017/01/18
Volume 591,574,697 Mean 4,809,550
O 606.26 H 1180.02 L 584.94 C 887.30
----------------------------
Mountains
Volume 318,794,889.92
2016/10/26--2016/11/04
Volume 83,415,906 Mean 8,341,591
O 662.99 H 759.26 L 662.99 C 702.57
2016/11/12--2016/11/17
Volume 51,439,151 Mean 8,573,192
O 723.21 H 787.79 L 687.04 C 763.40
2016/11/30--2016/12/01
Volume 15,604,301 Mean 7,802,150
O 735.11 H 758.72 L 733.72 C 757.18
2016/12/09--2016/12/12
Volume 33,878,552 Mean 8,469,638
O 768.56 H 784.04 L 768.31 C 781.34
2016/12/21--2016/12/28
Volume 64,501,533 Mean 8,062,692
O 803.86 H 982.06 L 802.23 C 981.83
2017/01/04--2017/01/07
Volume 47,431,664 Mean 11,857,916
O 1040.19 H 1180.02 L 817.74 C 907.76
----------------------------
Summits
2016/11/03
Volume 13,817,953
O 751.64 H 759.23 L 670.35 C 689.15
2016/11/15—2016/11/16
Volume 23,227,183 Mean 11,613,592
O 713.01 H 774.77 L 711.52 C 772.16
2016/12/21—2016/12/22
Volume 22,529,218 Mean 11,264,609
O 803.86 H 878.05 L 802.23 C 864.2
2017/01/04-2017/01/05
Volume 28,043,003 Mean 14,021,501
O 1040.19 H 1180.02 L 899.59 C 1011.04
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Last 90th percentile volume day: 2017/01/18
2017 80th percentile volume days: 01/01-01/23, 09/14-09/15, 11/12, 11/29, 12/07, 12/22
2018 80th percentile volume days: 01/17, 02/02, 02/05-02/06, 11/20
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Total volume by year
2010: 2,666,238
2011: 6,261,172
2012: 24,164,883
2013: 43,625,281
2014: 82,258,083
2015: 253,108,985
2016: 1,044,253,415
2017: 163,266,263
2018: 44,667,716
Highest volume months
March 2016: 148,693,421
October 2016: 115,658,782
November 2016: 175,517,926
December 2016: 170,989,251
January 2017: 107,943,195
90th percentile volume days by year
Pre-2015: 1
2015: 49
2016: 245
2017: 16
2018: 0
Median/Mean daily volume by year
2015: 389,877/693,449
2016: 2,168,318/2,853,151
2017: 149,708/447,305
2018: 100,779/122,377
Comment:
Weak response to moving average in comparison to 2015
Comment:
Comment:
200 SMMA
