Target still on

Both MRNA and BNTX reversed on Friday Engulfing day with decent volume ( and shorts squeeze). The selling was based on playing with the PFE news which effectively was a real no news ( no change in guidance 23 and 24 nobody knows ). In the meantime wastewater traces and hospitalisations for respiratory issues are on the rise worldwide. Cancer vaccines are moving fast ahead. As for 23 my best guess is that both MRNA and BNTX will meet their guidance. So all in all COVID vaccines market will be around USD 18 bil this year.

Trade active:

Keep being active with BNTX within a MT/LT (125/185) targets. MRNA confirmed sales of USD 6 bil for 23. PFE was also on the high side of guidance. so expect BNTX to deliver the USD 5 bil of its guidance 23 and show another profitable year that will increase cash towards 18 bil. Current market cap of 22 ish bil leave a net 4 bil ish market cap. Kind of very cheap. I was expecting wrongly MRNA to show a loss for the quarter creating some opportunity buy on BNTX. That did not happen. So adding here.

Trade active:

Comment:

MRNA is now like more than 5 X more expensive net of cash. Is this right ? Respiratory vaccines are costly and becoming competitive. So my guess is that from here the narrative is on Cancer.

I imagine a symmetrical move to the downside move. KInd of W.