BTC Update

Still tracking my overlay.

Just posting this to remind everyone that CPI number comes out Wed July 13th at 8:30am. BTC tanked on inflation numbers before the Fed meeting last time.

Also, daily MFI getting close to overbought

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I can now see the appeal, lol. I was just watching the 3 drive pattern, waiting for it to pop out of the final bull flag since that's what my overlay suggested.

It should go sideways then drop either this weekend or Mon/Tues back to 20k. Then whipsaw between 20 and 22k before the tank on Fed day

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Shows you how dangerous it is to hold this garbage overnight, crypto is for day trading only, lol, I'd never be able to sleep holding this crap.

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Still tracking the overlay, but CPI comes out Wed morning

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20k as promised.

Whether or not this bounces back up to 22k depends on reaction to CPI numbers Wed morning. It could just tank so I would not try to play a bounce here.

Still think 12k or lower by Fed day

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Already past my target, if it breaks below 18,7000 then it's toast this week.

Like I said previously, BTC tanked on CPI numbers preFed last month, the same can happen here. We find out Wed. You'd have to be crazy to hold crypto this week.

Trade closed: target reached:

Flipped my BITO puts for now since BTC hit my 20k target.

I think there will be a rally tomorrow because CPI "wasn't as bad as expected". One of those stupid days, lol.

Besides, my overlay says back to 22k before the dump.

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I think CPI will be higher but core inflation lower than May. The market rallies on that and ignores the fact that the Fed will still raise rates later this month, lol.

Expecting to see 22k here by the end of the week. Not going long though, probably tanks again this weekend.

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CPI release time is 8:30am EST tomorrow morning.

Watch out for the huge whipsaw before US markets open.

Trade active:

It's tracking my overlay so well, I had to buy some puts today. Cryptos always start tanking on weekends. Might be a FOMO trade (lol because everything about crypto is FOMO). A few for next week plus a few more for the following week (Fed day and what not)

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Even if I wasn't shorting this, I do not recommend holding cryptos over the weekend, since the peak it has only gone down on weekends. Think about it.

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Overlay timing says drop next week, but it probably won't happen until Fed week, so just a few puts for kicks and giggles.

Funny thing about cryptos, you think the rate hikes are priced in and they tank anyways. Will be throwing in a bigger bet next Friday, lol.

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Well, I added puts on the reversal yesterday then consolidated into next week's puts before close yesterday expecting a gap down. Obviously it didn;t, lol.

Lost a few hundred bucks but decided to close it here because it;s not doing what I expected, easier to just catch this crap while it's tanking and right now it;s just trading with the market like it did in March

Not a big deal since I made a grand off of this last week, you win some you lose some.