BTC Long, possible path to 100k if bulls step in fast and hard
BTC has a chance to reach ~100k if it can get above the previous ATH of ~74k considering the recent uptrend and interest since the 57k bottom forming a higher high.
Otherwise, if BTC gets under 65k, it will likely continue its range until Aug and form another pivot. More so, if it closes under 62k on a daily candle. It'll bring consideration of reaching 45k if we close under 57k.
In the event of hyperinflation or BTC exceeding 110k, I suspect it to max out at 145k, 195k, or 235k. 30k-35k is roughly the capitulation zone/hard bottom in a worst-case scenario to where it begins to compromise the network for this cycle.
Note that current prices above 65k are met with extreme resistance for good reason if you're looking at the right charts surrounding liquidity/fair value, pointing toward a cycle top or at least a mid-cycle top similar to 2019. Also, the market shifted bullish at the 70k top on May 20th, so there is consideration for a correction. BTC wouldn't be abnormal to trade as a ranging asset considering how fund managers will likely rebalance/offset risk with the near 100% returns since the ETF's inception. By ranging, I mean both, 74k-57k until Aug, and 74k-30k until EOY. Early June may present itself as an unexpected downward move. Not sure of its strength, guessing -8-10%. Be weary of more geopolitical events affecting price in the coming months.
Overall, the BTC is neutral/bullish in the short term if it can hold 65k and overtake 74k, giving the chance of reaching 100k by Aug. Bearish long term while it is under 75k, vulnerable to ranging to 57k until Aug, or even worse to a low of 35k or 45k through the rest of the year. However, its more probable that the short term neutral/bullish case takes place at current prices and conditions as of when this idea is published.
Long at 67.5k
tp 76k, 85k, 94k, 106k (likely close here)
sl 62.5k
Long at 60k (if prev long got stopped out and we do range) - expires by early Aug if not filled
same tps
sl 55k
Long at 46k
same tps
sl 40k
Otherwise, if BTC gets under 65k, it will likely continue its range until Aug and form another pivot. More so, if it closes under 62k on a daily candle. It'll bring consideration of reaching 45k if we close under 57k.
In the event of hyperinflation or BTC exceeding 110k, I suspect it to max out at 145k, 195k, or 235k. 30k-35k is roughly the capitulation zone/hard bottom in a worst-case scenario to where it begins to compromise the network for this cycle.
Note that current prices above 65k are met with extreme resistance for good reason if you're looking at the right charts surrounding liquidity/fair value, pointing toward a cycle top or at least a mid-cycle top similar to 2019. Also, the market shifted bullish at the 70k top on May 20th, so there is consideration for a correction. BTC wouldn't be abnormal to trade as a ranging asset considering how fund managers will likely rebalance/offset risk with the near 100% returns since the ETF's inception. By ranging, I mean both, 74k-57k until Aug, and 74k-30k until EOY. Early June may present itself as an unexpected downward move. Not sure of its strength, guessing -8-10%. Be weary of more geopolitical events affecting price in the coming months.
Overall, the BTC is neutral/bullish in the short term if it can hold 65k and overtake 74k, giving the chance of reaching 100k by Aug. Bearish long term while it is under 75k, vulnerable to ranging to 57k until Aug, or even worse to a low of 35k or 45k through the rest of the year. However, its more probable that the short term neutral/bullish case takes place at current prices and conditions as of when this idea is published.
Long at 67.5k
tp 76k, 85k, 94k, 106k (likely close here)
sl 62.5k
Long at 60k (if prev long got stopped out and we do range) - expires by early Aug if not filled
same tps
sl 55k
Long at 46k
same tps
sl 40k