Bullish: a guarantee BTC is going back to $12k?

CME:BTC1!   Bitcoin CME Futures
While there is a continued argument between “gaps always fill” and “gaps mean nothing”, the fact is: the Bitcoin futures contract on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange ( CME ) generally always fills its gaps - but is this becoming a guarantee of future performance?

Since the CME only trades during the working week, if BTC makes a big price move during the weekend, the CME reopens on Monday with a blank gap between the Friday close price and Monday open price - not something we are traditionally used to in the 24/7 Bitcoin world.

What is interesting about this is that in the following days the gap is always filled by BTC's price moving back to cover the area the CME missed... does this mean once a gap is created you have a near certainty that BTC will revisit that price level? Perhaps. But beware an example on November 5th when the gap was filled by a huge CME wick that did not occur in other exchanges (we fell back through that area regardless in the following days, but that's beside the point).

So what is perhaps most interesting is that in all its history the CME has filled all its gaps... except one: during the weekend of August 10-11th the CME left an as yet unfilled gap between $11695 and $12000. Is this all coincidence or could this be as close as we'll get in crypto to a guarantee of future BTC value to $12k+ after the current dip?

Please give me a thumbs up and follow me if you found my analysis interesting. This is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation to buy or sell.

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Nov 29
Comment: Shouldn't the RSI and Stochastic RSI always be viewed together to get the edge on predicting price movement? Look no further than...

Dec 02
Comment: New gap has opened this weekend between $7775 and $7555.

We can be almost certain that either we will spring back up briefly to fill it before continuing down, or fill it on the way back up from the $5k zone.
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