trezegol
Short

IS BITCOIN FUTURES TAKING THE LEAD? A SHORT TERM SHORT TO 5600

CME:BTC1!   Bitcoin CME Futures
Hello, I am noticing that as far as more data accumulates on the BTC1! history, the futures becomes more and more important and worth of a check, not only for gap filling analysis. Weekly and Monthly TF are not that data rich yet, so we just look at the Daily timeframe .

The biggest difference between any BTCUSD chart and BTC1! is the moving averages. This is because the latter excludes weekend data, which are unanimously less significant as the price moves on low volumes and they just add noise to the chart. The BTC1!'s one is cleaner.

Indeed, we see that on the BTC1! graph, the 100ma still has to cross to the downside the 200ma, while it already did on the exchanges' ones. No need to tell you this is a bearish signal. Moreover, the price is just rejected by the 200ma on highest volumes since months (which is also a bearish sign), while on the usual charts the 200ma is at 9000usd, giving the impression of what I think is an erroneous ST bullish scenario.

The TP and SL levels are the same one I would set in the BTCUSD chart, the only thing that changes is the view, which makes a HUGE difference though.

I would enter a ST short position at 8000-8200.
SL 8500
TP1 6500 (previous min)
TP2 5600 (confluence of fibo levels, 78%retracement of the April-July leg up and 127% extension of the last leg down)
great RR ratio!

Beside the trade itself, I think it is very interesting to keep an eye on the evolution of the price of the two types of charts, the futures one and the exchanges one, to understand if the futures is taking the lead role in the bitcoin market.

To summarize, BTC1! data set is getting interesting, and for the first time EVER we see that the 20days average volume on the futures in higher than the bitfinex one , meaning that institutional investors are increasing and that the BTC1! can be taken as an important graph to take into consideration as probably for the first time the view I had looking at it is the opposite of the BTCUSD one.

What do you think?Which of the two charts is getting the lead over the other? Please leave a comment, It will be much appeciated. See you in the comment section!

This idea is not in conflict with the previous one (see the related ideas link) as the next BTC pump is expected from January to April, so we have still room for a last downward leg. Ofc , the more we go up, the more time it would take to go down and, as time passes, if we do not go down, the probability that 6500 would have been the local min before the major pump increase. I do not think so tho. Let's see!
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