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LONG US, SHORT EU Hello, these two charts seem to show an identical background situation for the two economies (US and German), however, the economy in US and EU is very different (among other explanations, TFP - total factor productivity is, and always has been positive in the US, while it is negative and, most importantly, decreasing since many years in...

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If you check correlation with other assets, be it Gold, stock indices, other currencies or commodities, you will see how they are massively correlated (from 60% to even 95%) with gold. This, first of all, tells you that 1) basically all your investments depend on the answer to this question as the dollar is the king of the markets now and 2) trading XAUUSD...

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Hello Traders, nothing changed from the last updates for BTC and ETH. While waiting for a movement I want to signal a nice opportunity I spotted on the crypto markets. While the Total Value Locked on DeFi reached the new ATH, in a V-shape recovery from the recent drop, the DeFi PERP index is not following. This is a 35% misprice in my opinion, that has to be...

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Hello, I want to show you the perfect way to hedge your BTC and Alts exposure without selling them, partially selling them, buy expensive options, open coverage short positions. Indeed, probably you do not know this instrument yet, but BVOL tracks BTC volatility can act as an insurance against volatile market conditions. And, best thing, it is tradable. Why do...

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Hello traders, I am waiting for a break above the resistance in the chart before being confident in increasing my exposure in ALTS. BTC is still indecisive and, as you know by now, in a similar situation, ALTS are very risky. Indeed, if BTC pumps, they will underperform. In the unlikely scenario that BTC made a double top instead, the will underperform as well...

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BTC Chart is pretty noisy and we may get mixed evidence based on which indicator we are checking. This is therefore a great occasion to take a look to ETH in order to be able . Indeed, as per previous ideas, we mentioned many times that ETH is always LEADING, not LAGGING. ETHBTC has been sideways for a while but is above 0.07 key support and will be heading to...

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Hello, this retracement is not worrying to me as we are approaching the monthly cycle end which is usually against the main trend. Since last month was undoubtedly bullish, a retrace is perfectly normal. This weekly candle is not nice from the visual point of view but the trend is absolutely still bullish. True that we are below the previous ATH but if the...

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This is to follow up on my previous ideas' statement: I will not invest in alts as it is not the right moment in my opinion. Indeed, There is a misconception regarding altcoins according to which they lose only when btc goes down. This is not true. Alts lose also when BTC pumps hard (and I would say, unexpectedly), as all the liquidity is drained by BTC....

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The scenario mentioned in the last idea (linked), corresponding to the % on the chart, was delayed due to the false breakout of the red area but is now confirmed. This was the reason for the (initially) abrupt retracement in September Traders were taking some profit at the 1T threshold, to gather new energy for the new pump. Now, we are back again outside the...

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Let's not be emotional. The rejection at 50k was heavy and hit more than expected. We were getting used to steady growth and sometimes it is good that BYC reminds us about the past and about what it can do. At 50k there were many key levels and arejection was normal. Nothing worrying imo, and no whale selling, it was simply exhacerbated bythe fact that everybody...

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We were right on the analysis 3 weeks ago (see the related ideas below) and basically not many new things happened, however we have even 3 moreconfirmations: 1- daily and WEEKLY close above the retracement area identified by Fibo levels. The last big resistance was 51100. 2- we will soon have Golden cross on the daily. 3- Eth usually anticipates btc and it...

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Before blindly displaying the usual moving average to all instruments without distinction, you should keep in mind that it has to be On traditional markets, the moving average is 200 because traditional instruments are closed on weekends! If you apply this to BTC, you should consider the fact that it is 24/7 and therefore the good MA to be used is 290. If you...

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Hello, another indication that the retracement of BTC is normal comes from this chart. We are using the 1Tn market cap of altcoins (excluding BTC) as a floor and as a support after breaking it upwards. This is a sign of the fact that the retracement is over, or close to its end. Not yet time to go long for me based on this chart, but still a very interesting...

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Hello, we already talked about the ending yearly monthly cycle (see linked idea below), that was 100% closed on the 20 of July. We are now in what seems to be a new bullish cycle, according to the first month. Indeed, yearly cycles are divided into sub cycles of 1month. Of course the length can slightly vary but as you can see, even without considering the last 8...

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This explains why the retracement we are witnessing these days is perfectly normal on crypto. We are outside the retracement area, and I expect a retest only of the 1.7 Trillion level (at most).

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Hello crypto traders, as you see from the chart, we are at a key level: 3350, which is the upper boundary of the Fibonacci retracement are. The area 3000-3350 marks the area that separates the bullish continuation from a dangerous ABC pattern. Indeed, if the price will manage to break above 3350, we can definitely say that the upward scenario is in. On the other...

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Despite the fact that to be fairly sure we should wait to be outside the retracement area 42-51k, we can say that the probability the answer is YES are much higher now. Until 51 is not broken, we can not be sure that we are out of the B scenario on the chart, which however, is much less likely. Indeed, the price is following the projections made 2 months ago...

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This particular Dominance maeasure, adjusted by stablecoins, show that the down trend may have reverted. 1- we are bouncing on the 50MA 2- the fibo extension target of the last upmove is within the fibo retracement area of the last big downmove. Both are at the 200MA level But what does this mean? Technically, dominance increases when BTC drops right? So, if...