bagofXMR

Bitcoin longterm view

Long
bagofXMR Updated   
BTCCHINA:BTCCNY   None
Bitcoin is showing constantly different patterns in its charts supporting a strong uptrend.

A double bottom at 1285 CNY range.

A possible long-term cup and handle formation

A possible long-term head and shoulders formation.

Trading already for 4 months over 50% downtrend fib retracement, a psicological level that indicates trader are refusing to keep the downtrend since ATH active.

Fractals patterns also indicate a massive bull run could be approaching, see this idea supported by several traders.

s3.amazonaws.com/tra...shots/m/mYKkwIyc.png

All this, plus the fundamentals, with megaupload 2 and bitcache potentially bringing thousands of new users to bitcoin, with lightning transactions addressing scaling issues, with monero potentially taking the "drug money" badname out of bitcoin... is clearly suggesting an uptrend.

Time to take some risks and concentrate trading portfolio in bitcoin.
Trade active:
Scalping my core long.
So far, so good.
Already at ~25% profit, with a x2.5 margin, that is a ~65% in two months.
Looking forward to 2017
Comment:
Trade active:
Still doing great with this trade.
Currently bitcoin trading at +34% my entry point. After margin (x2.5) that means already over 85% profit.

Current targets:
TARGET 1: 50% of initial position -- 5900-6000 CNY
TARGET 2: 25% of initial position -- 7000 CNY
TARGET 3: 25% of initial position -- 9000 CNY
**Targets are not hard and might be slightly modified to fit the situation

Entry point: 4090 CNY
Total profit if everything goes as planned: 70% BEFORE MARGIN -- 175% AFTER MARGIN
Comment:
I see a huge mistake in my last comment.

Total profit if everything goes as planned is: 170% BEFORE MARGIN -- 430% AFTER MARGIN
Trade closed: target reached:
TARGET 1: REACHED
CLOSING POINT: 6072 CNY
PROFIT TIED SO FAR: 185% including margin
UNREALIZED PROFIT + REALIZED PROFIT: 370% of collateral used.

STOP-LOSS: 4900 CNY
Comment:
DATA FROM BITFINEX AND COINMARKETCAP

ATH: 1175 usd
ATH-date: Week from 2nd december 2013 to 8th december 2013
Coin supply by then: 12087100 BTC
Market Cap-ATH: 12087100*1175=$14.2B

----ATH adjusted to current supply----
Current coin supply: 16065050 BTC
Market Cap old ATH: $14.2B
Current Market Cap: $14.5B
Old ATH adjusted to current supply: $14.2B/16.07M BTC=$884/BTC

So we currently standing over ATH if we consider market cap as we should do when we consider a stock price (if a stock is splitted or smth similar price must be adjusted to new number of shares).
BTC is not a stock, but still, i think it is correct to say there is currently much more money involved in BTC thant there was back in Dec 2013 when BTC reached an ATH per coin of 1175 in Bitfinex.
Comment:
Chart update with new info and mor ambitious targets

Comment:
TARGET 2 REACHED
CLOSING POINT: 7002 CNY

--I did, once again, some miscalculations--

PROFIT TIED SO FAR: 105% including margin and both targets

UNREALIZED PROFIT + REALIZED PROFIT: 140% of collateral used.
Comment:
Target 3 reached.
Closing point: 8880 CNY

TOTAL REALIZED PROFIT: +175% including margin and all targets.

Looking forward to buy at 7000, 6000 and 5200
Comment:
7000 and 6000 buying targets reached.
Moved up 5200 buying target to 5500.
Comment:
Loaded at 6000, 7000 and 5500. AVG 6000 CNY. Margin x3
Comment:
Closed 50% of position at 7500.
75% net profit, to add to the current 175% net profit to reach a whoping 250% net profit.

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.