UPDATE: I'm wrong! UPDATE#2: Maybe not! Time will tell. UPDATE #3: See comments.
EDIT #1: For those that are CHINESE, today is a very very big American holiday called "black friday" where we spend money because stores give huge (80%!) discounts.
EDIT #2: Just to be 100% clear (CHINESE), I'm not predicting anything precise here. (That point is not meant to predict 2600.)
I'm going to keep this brief. (aka I'm not showing my work. You've got enough here to figure it out yourself. aka I did a shitty job explaining myself.)
Glen Neely* once said that wave counts should start from the ground up: you start on the 1/3/5 minute chart and build your way to the daily chart. Not the reverse. Last night, my short was destroyed as a (C) wave failed. If you look closely, you'll see that the failure was not an error in count: the wave was interrupted (ie by some new event).
There have been a variety of "anomalous" events over the last week or so.. black friday, the PBOC currency announcement, holiday week. (Seeing a lot of "harmonic" patterns.) Presumably this is another one of those such events. (Can't be sure until we see how it unfolds on the 5min chart. So far, my short is still looking good, but it's too early to be sure of anything.) In general, these short, gap-like movements get retraced 100% in gap-like fashion.
Happy holidays.
PS I'll update this when I've been proven right or wrong.
*Glen Neely: Professor who spent a huge portion of his life researching and quantifying the elliott wave. Wrote a huge, weird, incomprehensible book that's based soundly in empirical science.
EDIT #1: For those that are CHINESE, today is a very very big American holiday called "black friday" where we spend money because stores give huge (80%!) discounts.
EDIT #2: Just to be 100% clear (CHINESE), I'm not predicting anything precise here. (That point is not meant to predict 2600.)
I'm going to keep this brief. (aka I'm not showing my work. You've got enough here to figure it out yourself. aka I did a shitty job explaining myself.)
Glen Neely* once said that wave counts should start from the ground up: you start on the 1/3/5 minute chart and build your way to the daily chart. Not the reverse. Last night, my short was destroyed as a (C) wave failed. If you look closely, you'll see that the failure was not an error in count: the wave was interrupted (ie by some new event).
There have been a variety of "anomalous" events over the last week or so.. black friday, the PBOC currency announcement, holiday week. (Seeing a lot of "harmonic" patterns.) Presumably this is another one of those such events. (Can't be sure until we see how it unfolds on the 5min chart. So far, my short is still looking good, but it's too early to be sure of anything.) In general, these short, gap-like movements get retraced 100% in gap-like fashion.
Happy holidays.
PS I'll update this when I've been proven right or wrong.
*Glen Neely: Professor who spent a huge portion of his life researching and quantifying the elliott wave. Wrote a huge, weird, incomprehensible book that's based soundly in empirical science.
