Elliot Wave Greenback / Gold Channel Entrance Possibility
When we were rising through $20k everyone watching new something unique was happening this time, but, we didn't quite know what. When things rose past $50k and toward the $1T mark people started to consider gold as already cracked. This was, in fact, silly, since a $1T asset (albeit with superior characteristics) has in no way cracked a $10T assetized technology with a multi-century history.
The discussion now is around the concept of "a super-cycle" which is misleading due to the preceding article. Is this a supercycle? What people really mean is a silly question: "Is this THE cycle?" It's a fictitious coat hook we can hang our hats on while checking our minds at the door. The super we expect is here, it has already arrived, we're exuberant, and just as quickly, beheaded.
The events of the recent months have shown that although the derivatives volume in Bitcoin have risen significantly since the last bull run, they are still fundamentally broken and decoupled.
The two upcoming cracks are of gold & the greenback. The crack of gold is by no means a foregone conclusion (and which we could stay under & track beneath if we follow a dampening function that presses us further down to full suppression of the wave impulse as indicated by the gold line. The crack of the greenback may not even make sense as things re-shuffle when we crack gold, BUT, given the acceleration of a 2,0 year old asset potentially cracking a 2,000+ year-old asset... it's not unreasonable to assume that the only re-denomination our minds could wrap our heads around would be a simultaneous crack of the greenback and gold.
The channel entrance where the greenback stays on top of the gold replacement as a superior highest-energy function seems unlikely on a multi-decade timescale given the laws of nature, but, I do believe that tribes will continue to pool risk to provide insurance against uncertainty. For some time we may have a channel between gold and the US dollar with the US dollar providing an inflationary float for expenditures and pricing that is more coupled with "the existing busyness," as things unfold.
I'm calling an exactly perpendicular slope to the gold dampening curve for us to crack the entrance to the green-gold channel (which is why this model exists at all to begin with... if it isn't a shot at 50/50 certainty what would this even mean..). The last important thing about words is that when we say we're calling for something we really do mean it in a hopeful sense of the word, not a prediction but an invocation where the action is inseparable from the outcome.
The discussion now is around the concept of "a super-cycle" which is misleading due to the preceding article. Is this a supercycle? What people really mean is a silly question: "Is this THE cycle?" It's a fictitious coat hook we can hang our hats on while checking our minds at the door. The super we expect is here, it has already arrived, we're exuberant, and just as quickly, beheaded.
The events of the recent months have shown that although the derivatives volume in Bitcoin have risen significantly since the last bull run, they are still fundamentally broken and decoupled.
The two upcoming cracks are of gold & the greenback. The crack of gold is by no means a foregone conclusion (and which we could stay under & track beneath if we follow a dampening function that presses us further down to full suppression of the wave impulse as indicated by the gold line. The crack of the greenback may not even make sense as things re-shuffle when we crack gold, BUT, given the acceleration of a 2,0 year old asset potentially cracking a 2,000+ year-old asset... it's not unreasonable to assume that the only re-denomination our minds could wrap our heads around would be a simultaneous crack of the greenback and gold.
The channel entrance where the greenback stays on top of the gold replacement as a superior highest-energy function seems unlikely on a multi-decade timescale given the laws of nature, but, I do believe that tribes will continue to pool risk to provide insurance against uncertainty. For some time we may have a channel between gold and the US dollar with the US dollar providing an inflationary float for expenditures and pricing that is more coupled with "the existing busyness," as things unfold.
I'm calling an exactly perpendicular slope to the gold dampening curve for us to crack the entrance to the green-gold channel (which is why this model exists at all to begin with... if it isn't a shot at 50/50 certainty what would this even mean..). The last important thing about words is that when we say we're calling for something we really do mean it in a hopeful sense of the word, not a prediction but an invocation where the action is inseparable from the outcome.