Even though I had a big bull from $11305 for $BTCUSD, I am no longer a bull. Below are the reasons why:
1/ I use a 14 day MA for volume. The tall structures above the average were mostly bearish red. Even though the recent volumes were less than average, I see more red volumes than green. It tells me this might be a distribution. Ref:
2/ If the price closes like this on monthly, then this would be a very bearish candle. No need for explanation as it can easily be seen. It indicates lot of selling pressure from the top. Ref:
3/ The price never came back to retest the ATH. It tested the yearly low. However, it never retested the ATH. Hence, I expect the price to try the last ATH at least. This makes more sense, correct? Ref:
4/ This is EMA 21. Price respected it almost all the way up. Then price broke below. It retested. Now it is going down.
Ref:
5/ I have drawn all the zone below. Currently, the price is traversing a large demand zone. It is testing this zone for such a long time makes me wonder if the zone is getting weaker and weaker. If and when it breaks, I have drawn the zone below where it like will go one after another. Any of those zones can stop the downfall or break for more price drop.Ref:
6/ The daily ichi is no longer bullish. There already is a bearish t&K cross over. The Chiku line has a lot of tall structure (bars) to cross, meaning the probability of this going down is higher. Also, the ichi indicates an e2e meaning price might cross that river of kumo cloud. If so, $20k is nearby.
7/ As we notice, in this weekly chart, that the tenkan of ichi (with settings 10/30/60/30) has touched the price multiple times on the way up. Now we also see the Kijun blue line to be flat. A flat kijun line is a great attractor like a magnet. Off course there is the tenkan in between that can act as s/r. However, the likely chance that it won't help much this time and price goes for the blue kijun which is at 25k. Ref:
8/ It is the fib. As you can see, that price had bounced and tested the area between 50-61.8% fib. It was rejected recently with a wick telling me that the suppliers/bears have very boldly pushed the price. If the structure continues, I would expect 161.8% and then 261.8% if and only if 161.8% breaks. At this fundamental state of the market, 261.8% is highly unlikely. Ref:
9/ It is ATR COG. The price is considered to be overheated when it is over the red dot. It is considered to be a FOMO area when it is over the red line. The price is considered to be oversold when below the green dot. It is considered to be super oversold when below the green line. So, price tends to oscillate between the red dot and green dot. The middle blue line acts as an s/r.
Considering above, we can see that price is nicely coming below the red dot. The next place where price likely going is the blue line, then a green dot, then green line. It does not need to go all three. Ref:
10/ Price testing the support so many times is making support weaker and weaker until support likely breaks. This is bearish.
11/ This one is interesting. The parabolic sar is going down while the price is going down is bearish except it has taken a rest over the support.
Ref:
12/ The higher high-Higher low structure was intact for a long time, as seen from my zigzag red line with arrows. The higher high-higher low indicates a bullish market.
The lower high - lower low line has taken into shape as can be seen from my zigzag green line with arrows. The lower high-lower low indicates a bearish market.
Ref:
13/ The fact that Tenkan is predicted to go further down, according to the Predictimoku (a tool to predict the Ichimoku lines), is a near term bearish sign.
Ref:
14/ The Super Algorithm indicator has called bearish on 1day timeframe. The day has not closed yet. Hence, I will wait for day close before considering this point. Also, I will be waiting for 2day timframe bearish signal and the close before adding ok size short. Ref:
15/ And CME Gaps as highlighted Ref:
I wait for 1day bar close first before opening a trade.
1/ I use a 14 day MA for volume. The tall structures above the average were mostly bearish red. Even though the recent volumes were less than average, I see more red volumes than green. It tells me this might be a distribution. Ref:
2/ If the price closes like this on monthly, then this would be a very bearish candle. No need for explanation as it can easily be seen. It indicates lot of selling pressure from the top. Ref:
3/ The price never came back to retest the ATH. It tested the yearly low. However, it never retested the ATH. Hence, I expect the price to try the last ATH at least. This makes more sense, correct? Ref:
4/ This is EMA 21. Price respected it almost all the way up. Then price broke below. It retested. Now it is going down.
Ref:
5/ I have drawn all the zone below. Currently, the price is traversing a large demand zone. It is testing this zone for such a long time makes me wonder if the zone is getting weaker and weaker. If and when it breaks, I have drawn the zone below where it like will go one after another. Any of those zones can stop the downfall or break for more price drop.Ref:
6/ The daily ichi is no longer bullish. There already is a bearish t&K cross over. The Chiku line has a lot of tall structure (bars) to cross, meaning the probability of this going down is higher. Also, the ichi indicates an e2e meaning price might cross that river of kumo cloud. If so, $20k is nearby.
7/ As we notice, in this weekly chart, that the tenkan of ichi (with settings 10/30/60/30) has touched the price multiple times on the way up. Now we also see the Kijun blue line to be flat. A flat kijun line is a great attractor like a magnet. Off course there is the tenkan in between that can act as s/r. However, the likely chance that it won't help much this time and price goes for the blue kijun which is at 25k. Ref:
8/ It is the fib. As you can see, that price had bounced and tested the area between 50-61.8% fib. It was rejected recently with a wick telling me that the suppliers/bears have very boldly pushed the price. If the structure continues, I would expect 161.8% and then 261.8% if and only if 161.8% breaks. At this fundamental state of the market, 261.8% is highly unlikely. Ref:
9/ It is ATR COG. The price is considered to be overheated when it is over the red dot. It is considered to be a FOMO area when it is over the red line. The price is considered to be oversold when below the green dot. It is considered to be super oversold when below the green line. So, price tends to oscillate between the red dot and green dot. The middle blue line acts as an s/r.
Considering above, we can see that price is nicely coming below the red dot. The next place where price likely going is the blue line, then a green dot, then green line. It does not need to go all three. Ref:
10/ Price testing the support so many times is making support weaker and weaker until support likely breaks. This is bearish.
11/ This one is interesting. The parabolic sar is going down while the price is going down is bearish except it has taken a rest over the support.
Ref:
12/ The higher high-Higher low structure was intact for a long time, as seen from my zigzag red line with arrows. The higher high-higher low indicates a bullish market.
The lower high - lower low line has taken into shape as can be seen from my zigzag green line with arrows. The lower high-lower low indicates a bearish market.
Ref:
13/ The fact that Tenkan is predicted to go further down, according to the Predictimoku (a tool to predict the Ichimoku lines), is a near term bearish sign.
Ref:
14/ The Super Algorithm indicator has called bearish on 1day timeframe. The day has not closed yet. Hence, I will wait for day close before considering this point. Also, I will be waiting for 2day timframe bearish signal and the close before adding ok size short. Ref:
15/ And CME Gaps as highlighted Ref:
I wait for 1day bar close first before opening a trade.
Comment:
There already has been 5 touches to the trendline as shown. The trenline likely will break and this is bearish $BTCUSD
Comment:
Ichimoku on daily is bearish
Comment:
Will CME Gap play come into play if and when $BTCUSD keeps on going down. Marked are the CME GAPs I can see.
Trade closed: stop reached:
Closed at $32000 with loss.
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