James_D

To BLASH or not to BLASH

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
Here we are testing the support of the previous reversal pattern (green box) after a dramatic semi double top last November. The good news is, price is still playing 2021's support and resistance well. The horizontal yellow line that price is resting on at time of writing is theoretically a strong one. It has been tested as both support and resistance in high time frames. If it breaks to failure, it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility to see 30k again. But wait, there's more.

I have also identified a new bull/bear line (labeled yellow diagonal) somewhat similar to last years (in-active lines are marked in white). It is mostly untested and therefore should be treated with a grain of salt. However, I believe it is the best currently known marker for determining a confirmed pivot to the upside. I see below this line (now) as a good time to accumulate. There are steeper lines you could draw here, but this is the one I am most comfortable with in saying there has been a pivot.

Side note: Something I have noticed about the green box pattern is that it has repeated numerous times in smaller time frames since its inception. It's literally all over the place. Price falls into a descending channel, breaks out momentarily, and then collapses back into range before exploding higher. You can see it potentially happening again since early December. You can also see the 50 crossing the 200 just as before (white diamonds).

HODL'r Tip:

The hardest thing to do as a new trader is deciding what to do with a bag that was purchased on high when price has tanked. If you find yourself in this position and emotions are high, you've probably overinvested. From now on, be mindful and trade only what you're comfortable with losing. Stop trying to 'get rich quick'. Follow a strategy that won't leave you in an emotional state of mind. Heavy unrecoverable losses lead to high emotions and high emotions lead to a negative feedback loop of bad trading decisions. Reset and focus on becoming a good trader and enjoying your craft instead of the potential reward. Greed will get you in trouble faster than it will get you anything else.

If you are a swing trader or investor, right now is the time when you should be looking to buy in increments that have a chance to initially lose value. Sound counterintuitive? That's trading. It's the simplest thing to say, but in practice, very hard to master: "Buy low and sell high." The thing to remember is that it doesn't mean the lowest low or the highest high.

BLASH on my friends. Happy new year and best of luck.
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