Hi all fellow traders, students and crypto lovers.
It is a great pleasure for me to share my views on BTC. However i must warn you in advance that my analysis is like no other you will see here on tradingview. Meaning that it is just a collection of my ideas and experiences that i place into this asset. Therefor it is not an investment advice and you for yourself must determine what analysis brings forward the most facts and least opinions. Hereby you can decide for yourself how do you want to assess the future of this asset.
Ok, so lets get to it..
As some of you may have noticed the chart i posted is a logarithmic chart of the bitcoin price action since approximately 2015. The reason for this is because in my OPINION such a volatile asset in the early stages becomes a bit more clear regarding its potential IMPORTANT areas. With this i mean to say the way the asset has been developing in the last few years with respect to trends, because support and resistance zones ofcourse will not change any bit.
Firstly, So far we have had 3 MAJOR horizontal zones. The first being 3-5k. This zone is considered important for a couple reasons. The first being that in the first bull run in 2017 has printed one large red candle in this area. Generally speaking from experience, (go and check this out yourself with other instruments) once throughout an impulse in an upwards momentum a red candle is printed, this gives a sign that there is a demand zone for this instrument at this level. The other reason is that in moments of distress such as March 2021 or during the bear market after the 2017 bull run, BTC has both times tested this zone for support.
The second major support zone is currently standing at 13-20k. I know this is quite a broad zone but let me clarify a bit why this zone is crucial as well. As the 2017 bull run came to an end 20k area marked the top for BTC and therefor was a huge resistance at the time being. Following this run BTC made an attempt to go higher in 2019 and failed at the area of 13k. That is why 13k can also be considered a resistance area. However, since the big bull run starting last year we have ripped through this zone without any hesitation. Therefor i still expect this zone to be retested as a support and due to the difficulty pinpointing which side of this zone is more dominant i have decided to keep this entire area as a support zone momentarily with the expectation that the 20k area might already be sufficient for a retest.
The final import zone which is currently a resistance is the 50-65k area. Yes this zone is very broad but in the sense that not enough information has been printed yet to pinpoint the precise range which can be considered a resitance, this whole area must be considered. We saw that in the past couple months BTC has slowed down alot and nearly down 50% from it's all time highs and has definitely faced a hard resistance area up here.
So far we have looked at the 3 major zones i demonstrated on my chart.
Secondly i would like to point out the humongous wedge that is being formed in the logarithmic chart. Yes, here the information is limited to approximately 6 years worth of monthly candles so you are correct if you question the validity of this wedge. However, in this manner you can clearly see the previous time we hit the upper bound of the wedge and started to correct we were in for a longer than expected (atleast most of the hodlers) correction. It is a possibility we are also in for the same treat this time and therefor i urge you to keep your eyes open for a proper plan (Are you a hodler? or are you simply trying to make some money in the next 12 months? or do you have another pre-thought out plan?).
Finally to close things off i have added 2 of the most basic indicators out there to give an image to something that you can't see by just looking at candles and zones. These are simple moving averages, to determine the movement of the instrument and stochastics to check whether we are on the overbought/oversold side of things. Ofcourse there are many other indicators out there but these are basic ones you can add to any strategy to confirm what it is you are seeing. The stochastics are telling us that we may have hit a peak in our buying momentum, however overbought can remain overbought for longer than anticipated while the same goes for oversold. Therefor we can also look at the moving averages to complete out picture a bit more. We can see that the 9, 20 and 50 month are all on a rise which is usually a very bullish signal. however due to the fact that these are lagging indicators that doesn't necesarely mean that the correction hasen't already began.
Right now the 9 month MA is being tested. If this fails i suggest that we may see a move to our previous highs/the 20month MA at around 20k or even possibly the confluence of the trending support, support area and the 50month MA at approximately 13k. Worst case scenario is to me if this fails aswell, then i believe we might head into the 3-5k area.
Note that in the last paragraph i have used all the information i see and possibly add beautiful indicators what tradingview can supply to create an analysis of the scenario of things that are currently in the chart. I will leave all the discussions on the fundamental to you guys including what will the application of bitcoin be? will the energy costs be a problem? and will there be bans/extra taxes implemented on btc? Because i simply want to illustrate how you can construct for yourself to a certain extent an unbiased analysis based on the price action of an instrument.
Thank you for taking your time to read my analysis! A thumbs up would be highly appreciated and i would be more than happy to hear from you in the comments if you have any questions or any suggestions on future analysis/education.
Leezz
It is a great pleasure for me to share my views on BTC. However i must warn you in advance that my analysis is like no other you will see here on tradingview. Meaning that it is just a collection of my ideas and experiences that i place into this asset. Therefor it is not an investment advice and you for yourself must determine what analysis brings forward the most facts and least opinions. Hereby you can decide for yourself how do you want to assess the future of this asset.
Ok, so lets get to it..
As some of you may have noticed the chart i posted is a logarithmic chart of the bitcoin price action since approximately 2015. The reason for this is because in my OPINION such a volatile asset in the early stages becomes a bit more clear regarding its potential IMPORTANT areas. With this i mean to say the way the asset has been developing in the last few years with respect to trends, because support and resistance zones ofcourse will not change any bit.
Firstly, So far we have had 3 MAJOR horizontal zones. The first being 3-5k. This zone is considered important for a couple reasons. The first being that in the first bull run in 2017 has printed one large red candle in this area. Generally speaking from experience, (go and check this out yourself with other instruments) once throughout an impulse in an upwards momentum a red candle is printed, this gives a sign that there is a demand zone for this instrument at this level. The other reason is that in moments of distress such as March 2021 or during the bear market after the 2017 bull run, BTC has both times tested this zone for support.
The second major support zone is currently standing at 13-20k. I know this is quite a broad zone but let me clarify a bit why this zone is crucial as well. As the 2017 bull run came to an end 20k area marked the top for BTC and therefor was a huge resistance at the time being. Following this run BTC made an attempt to go higher in 2019 and failed at the area of 13k. That is why 13k can also be considered a resistance area. However, since the big bull run starting last year we have ripped through this zone without any hesitation. Therefor i still expect this zone to be retested as a support and due to the difficulty pinpointing which side of this zone is more dominant i have decided to keep this entire area as a support zone momentarily with the expectation that the 20k area might already be sufficient for a retest.
The final import zone which is currently a resistance is the 50-65k area. Yes this zone is very broad but in the sense that not enough information has been printed yet to pinpoint the precise range which can be considered a resitance, this whole area must be considered. We saw that in the past couple months BTC has slowed down alot and nearly down 50% from it's all time highs and has definitely faced a hard resistance area up here.
So far we have looked at the 3 major zones i demonstrated on my chart.
Secondly i would like to point out the humongous wedge that is being formed in the logarithmic chart. Yes, here the information is limited to approximately 6 years worth of monthly candles so you are correct if you question the validity of this wedge. However, in this manner you can clearly see the previous time we hit the upper bound of the wedge and started to correct we were in for a longer than expected (atleast most of the hodlers) correction. It is a possibility we are also in for the same treat this time and therefor i urge you to keep your eyes open for a proper plan (Are you a hodler? or are you simply trying to make some money in the next 12 months? or do you have another pre-thought out plan?).
Finally to close things off i have added 2 of the most basic indicators out there to give an image to something that you can't see by just looking at candles and zones. These are simple moving averages, to determine the movement of the instrument and stochastics to check whether we are on the overbought/oversold side of things. Ofcourse there are many other indicators out there but these are basic ones you can add to any strategy to confirm what it is you are seeing. The stochastics are telling us that we may have hit a peak in our buying momentum, however overbought can remain overbought for longer than anticipated while the same goes for oversold. Therefor we can also look at the moving averages to complete out picture a bit more. We can see that the 9, 20 and 50 month are all on a rise which is usually a very bullish signal. however due to the fact that these are lagging indicators that doesn't necesarely mean that the correction hasen't already began.
Right now the 9 month MA is being tested. If this fails i suggest that we may see a move to our previous highs/the 20month MA at around 20k or even possibly the confluence of the trending support, support area and the 50month MA at approximately 13k. Worst case scenario is to me if this fails aswell, then i believe we might head into the 3-5k area.
Note that in the last paragraph i have used all the information i see and possibly add beautiful indicators what tradingview can supply to create an analysis of the scenario of things that are currently in the chart. I will leave all the discussions on the fundamental to you guys including what will the application of bitcoin be? will the energy costs be a problem? and will there be bans/extra taxes implemented on btc? Because i simply want to illustrate how you can construct for yourself to a certain extent an unbiased analysis based on the price action of an instrument.
Thank you for taking your time to read my analysis! A thumbs up would be highly appreciated and i would be more than happy to hear from you in the comments if you have any questions or any suggestions on future analysis/education.
Leezz