quantmaven

The long-term relationship between crypto and fiat is clear

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BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
The whole crypto market fell as much as 55% from its high. Speculators blamed Elon Musk for his tweets and Chinese regulatory measures for the severe correction. However, there might be a larger, more potent, structural force in play with this bear market: the US dollar appears to be bottoming and rising again. If we look all the history of Bitcoin price, the inverse relationship between crypto and fiat is clear. We have seen that long interest rates have caught Wallstreet by surprise by climbing alot from August 2020 to Mars 2021. Usually higher interest rates means that the currency attracts foreign capital and makes the currency rise higher afterwards. The US dollar has been in a trading range over the last couple years and seems to have bottomed. Today, the US dollar spiked the most in 9 months, which may be another sign that the crypto winter might be upon us. The Fed has changed their stance over the last two months. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is most likely to taper and raise short term rates faster than expected to curb inflation. Let's watch the US dollar closely in the next couple weeks!
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