Bitcoin broke out of the downtrend channel and a lot of people are reasonably pumped... however a note of caution is necessary. Looking back at the past downtrend which began in December 2013, we notice some distinct similarities to what is unfolding currently (even the dates are surprisingly correlated). As in late '13 - early '14, price broke out of the initial downtrend and approached the yearly pivot. The yearly pivot, then, as now, fell almost exactly on a .382 retrace of the initial move down. Price reached the pivot, ran out of gas, and resumed it's downtrend.
That may be the same as what happens. The market, as per BFX longs vs. shorts, is still pretty crowded and still heavily short. A move up may just what is needed before it moves back down. Either way, pay close attention to price as it approaches ~11.5k. Frankly, amid all the hoopla, I don't think BTC formed an adequate base to give this much momentum to continue the journey up. Furthermore, USD appears to be strengthening, which will also add to sell pressure on BTC.
Final prediction - I think BTC will approach 11.5k (the yearly pivot) over the coming days and weeks, hover there for a while, and resume it's downtrend for the rest of 2018.
Comments and critiques are welcome. Good luck all.
That may be the same as what happens. The market, as per BFX longs vs. shorts, is still pretty crowded and still heavily short. A move up may just what is needed before it moves back down. Either way, pay close attention to price as it approaches ~11.5k. Frankly, amid all the hoopla, I don't think BTC formed an adequate base to give this much momentum to continue the journey up. Furthermore, USD appears to be strengthening, which will also add to sell pressure on BTC.
Final prediction - I think BTC will approach 11.5k (the yearly pivot) over the coming days and weeks, hover there for a while, and resume it's downtrend for the rest of 2018.
Comments and critiques are welcome. Good luck all.