Long

# wave 5 update

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
626 10
whatever the minor wave count for wave 5 is doesn't really matter. it could be a standard impulse wave or expanding diagonal or contracting diagonal whatever it maybe lets ignore it for now. there is no need to even count it

im going to assume minor wave 4 is in the correct position because it looks obvious it is. starting at intermediate wave (4) we can measure how far minor wave 5 should travel. the 5th in a lot of impulse waves typically travel 0.618 of the waves 1~3. so normally the target would be 201.62. that is a great place to buy if we it get there
What's your target for the low?
201 as it says in the chart

but the market doesn't have to reach it if it's done
user100000
I'm pretty sure it will. The market doesn't just flatline at support like this with unexceptional volume and not keep going.
Here's the chart I'm referring to, from a week ago:
I thought you were saying previously that this was Wave 3 starting. Did you do a recount somewhere?
rivet.popper
i realised primary wave 4 was still valid and hasn't been invalidated. the market must go to 170 to invalidate primary wave 4. so technically, the market is in cycle wave III which started at 45. primary waves 1,2,3, and now 4 are complete. primary wave 5 should extend to make up for the minimum distance needed to cover for cycle wave III. ewp rules state that wave three must never be shortest. if wave I=wave III ie the minimum, that should take the market all the way to 5.2K but that's just the minimum which isn't typical of wave three; expecting more
user100000
Ok, so are you still keeping with your original new ATH calculation of 133,000 USD per bitcoin somewhere around March 27th?
rivet.popper
no, 133K was based on wrong cycle count.

the minimum target for primary wave 5 and cycle wave III
is e^((ln(259.34)-ln(2.22))+ln(45))=USD 5,256.89
a realistic max target is 161.8% of cycle wave I. e^(ln(259.34)-ln(45))*1.618)+ln(45) = USD 99,644.71

to get a realistic target we should draw a channel joining primary wave 2 and the recent primary wave 4 low and touching the upper channel primary wave 3 at ATH. look up where march 27 would intersect with the upper channel line. that would give realistic target
user100000
Ok, but just to clarify, you're still seeing the ATH at around March 27th, whatever it is?
user100000
And doesn't Wave 3 have to be the longest? The Nov 2013 wave up certainly wasn't longer than this corrective wave we're finishing now...
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