ft-73
Long

So what now ? Don't worry, that's just the beginning.

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
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A massive short squeeze was enough for BTC to break up both MA100 ( Blue ) and MA50 ( Green ) and move over 6300$.

This is something we saw back in 2015 and it basically confirmed the end of bear trend.

While it's highly likely we'll see a deeper "technical" pullback on the upcoming days/weeks ( as MA50 still lags under MA100 ), Bitcoin is poised to move much higher on medium term and it's quite likely to consolidate over MA20 ( red ), as it did back in 2015-2016. As you noticed MA20 did turn up already.

MA50/MA100 crossover would finally confirm a strong and firm uptrend.
Comment: NOTICE
Above the latest update for my BTC medium term ( 1W ) analysis.
You can read relevant previous posts here:

January 2019:


April 2019:
Comment: Technical pullback ongoing
Comment: Let the pullback unfold, withiut hurrying.
As you may nitotice a topping formation ( head & shoulders ) is playing.

Comment: A textbook pullback to FIB 0.618 and previous resistance ( now support ) at 6300$.
All in one night.

Good to fill some orders.

Accumulate on further weakness, wait for some consolidation.

Comment:
Comment: Broke up the rising wedge, already up 100$.
A small gift for daytrading, enjoy.
Comment: We recently had a TD Count=18 on Daily.
That's a ***very rare*** occurrence.

A TD strip > 9 or 13 means a rather long sequence of days seeing a rising price.
While this has little or no importance at all short term, it has some potentialy interesting implications for the medium term scenario.

Look at the chart below:



Here's two things i want to point out:

1) TD strips exceeding 13 ( red square ) are extremely rare on downtrends / sideway market ( a single red line span ).
2) TD strips exceeding ( all squares, except the red one ) are pretty common into uptrends ( blue line span ).
3) The first TD strip exceeding 13 sequence after a bottom usually marks the start of an uptrend ( see green squares ).

Got the message ?
We''ll see whether we have an "early bird" here or not.
Comment: A shame i cannot fix the typos :(
Below the fixed message. Sorry.

--

Here's the things i want to point out:

1) TD strips exceeding 13 ( that single red square ) are extremely rare on downtrends / sideway market ( red line span ).
2) TD strips exceeding 13 ( all squares, except the red one ) are pretty common in uptrends ( blue line span ).
3) The first TD strip exceeding 13 after a bottom usually marks the start of an uptrend ( see green squares ).
Comment: Short term:

Comment:

!!!
Comment: Rising wedge and divergences shown got confirmation.
Comment:
Comment: Healthy pullback please ?

Comment: Posted elsewhere, 1 hour ago.



Hanging man + evening star in formation.
We've seen it in action already ;)
Comment: To first log support.

Comment: Approaching uptrend support.

Comment: Medium term view, by comparison withj 2015-2016:

Comment: BB bisector should be considered support.
Comment:

Further medium term considerations:

1) MA100 ( green ) is first true support.
2) MA50 ( blue ) still have to cross over MA100, meaning currently uprend is still fragile.
3) MA20 ( red ) is climbing fast. Once 2) is done it may become short term trend support.
Comment: Rebound already over 11200$.
There's a chance it may nail 11700-12200$ area.
Comment: Target area reached, crossroads ahead.
Comment: Why crossroads ?

Because we had a pullback to previous support ( dotted red ), now resistance.
It's the upper bound of a broader rising wedge, with a -seemingly- smaill flag within. 12200-12500$ is resistance.

Short term price can move either way, with a slight bearish bias.
Use some caution and wait for market to pick some direction.

Comment: A diamond or not a diamond ?

Comment: Diamond top are among the *worst pattern to deal with*, as the may actually be half staffs as well.

Anyway, we have some noticeable risk of a topping pattern here.
So better acting accordingly and reduce risk.
Comment: Alreay 500$ lower, but less resembling a diamond.
Mixed scenario.
Comment: Inverted H&S, strong resistance ahead.

Comment: Short term it may rebound, as 9400$ should act as support ( hopefully ).
Otherwise it would be rather ugly.

Anyway, mediium term i would expect a further low, unless 11800$ is recovered before monday.

Seems unlikely so far, we'll see.
Comment: Breakout of descending channel, pullback to previous support unfolding.
Unless price breaks through 11000$ resistance area bears will keep control.

Comment: Rejected already.

best bet for the bulls would be a further inverted H&S, with a right shoulder ideally above 9800$.

Anyway, unless the bulls manage to pierce through the previous support in 11k area bias keeps bearish.
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Reply
We may have a route to a low within few weeks.



As long as 7000$ holds trend keeps bullish.
Reply
Route to a higher low has begun.
Be patient.
Reply
@ft-73, thanks for the update
Reply
Fab, do you share this view?



Eth, on the other hand, doesnt seem to give any support to the bullish scenario of btc at the moment. What do you think?
Reply
bravo nell'aver individuato l'inverted h&S: coincide anche dal punto di vista dei volumi. Per me rimane una grande incognita sul muro dei 13900 del precedente massimo.

Smart insight as to the iH&S, which as far as I can tell is confirmed by the volume pattern. My strongest doubt is the ability for the price to easily overcome the last peak.

Good work, we are looking forward to read you on the bb as well ..
Reply
ft-73 john_galassi
@john_galassi, 13300-14000$ is a tough resistance.
I doubt bulls will break through easily, best option i would think is a Cup& handle.

Anyway, IF they manage to break through the following may be possible ( first resistance above 16000$ ):



***So far*** that's just speculation though.
Le't see IF bulls still have something in their sleeve, or bears will take over.
Reply
@ft-73, thanks for the reply, didn't think of this last possibile outcome.
Personally I have now a (still small) short position on btcusd and kept my long-term long position open with a SL. I cheer for the drop at the moment
Reply
ft-73 john_galassi
@john_galassi, there is indded a chance of a technicall pullback trowards low 12000's.
That wouldn't change the current picture, which would stay mixed.

In case of a dowmove, bears may regain some traction if breaking under 11800$.

Anyway that's wild speculation for now.
Reply
ft-73 john_galassi
@john_galassi, And this is the reason for such a hypothetical pullback, if you care:



Reply
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