BTCUSD - My analysis and strategy based on events 2017-2018
Here's my go on the long-term analysis for Bitcoin looking ahead 3-5 years. Don't consider this as financial advice, I solely engaged on this analysis to get insights on my personal exit strategy
What I've done here are some simple calculations and multiplied them at the areas where the trend looked similar to the trend at the end of 2017.
For me a multiplier of 4.92 seemed realistic based on previous bull trend and bearish market afterwards. By scaling the time and the prices levels this way and adding a Fibonnaci retracement for a confirmation, we can see a somewhat clear way to where Bitcoin is headed.
I've actually done this analysis all by myself, but you can hear others on the internet say that 80K is still an option for this bull-cycle. What the Fib and the multiplied timeframes and growth show as actually confirm what other analysis are telling us. As for a next correction I also think a steep correction all the way down to 50K is very much likely.
There is a possibility the next bearish market circle is due to begin between june and october 2021. But if we'd had to choose, I'd say somwhere in between around mid august. Last bull to bear flipover gave us two chances to exit before getting significant losses.
I personally decided that a loss of 30% of my Bitcoin capital is acceptable if I'd decide to bail out (Exit price around 55K). But I'm also considering just holding part of my capital on Bitcoin for the very long-term 10-20 years and reinvest the other half of my capital for trading on the bearish market e.g. on BTC or various stablecoins like USDT.
While this is my vision on the the current trend of Bitcoin, I also believe we might be on new waters for the cryptocurrency market as well. While most of the behaviour seems somewhat copied compared to the previous bull-cycle, now there are actual big companies stepping in to crypto. Tesla, Paypal, Visa, so I'm not to sure if history is just gonna repeat itself over and over. We might just be inside a super cycle and going up way longer than we might expect. But I'm keeping my eye out for either signals.
As for my strategy for now, I think splitting my capital in one part Bitcoin and one part stablecoins plus trading, seems like the most likely way to go. I might as well hold on to my Bitcoin instead of going for either of both exits. We'll see what the market tells us when we get close enough.
I'm purely a beginner in technical analysis.
This is not financial advice. You take the consquence of your own actions.
Do with this information what you want, but always remember to DYOR.
Trade safe, stay safe!
Alex - out
What I've done here are some simple calculations and multiplied them at the areas where the trend looked similar to the trend at the end of 2017.
For me a multiplier of 4.92 seemed realistic based on previous bull trend and bearish market afterwards. By scaling the time and the prices levels this way and adding a Fibonnaci retracement for a confirmation, we can see a somewhat clear way to where Bitcoin is headed.
I've actually done this analysis all by myself, but you can hear others on the internet say that 80K is still an option for this bull-cycle. What the Fib and the multiplied timeframes and growth show as actually confirm what other analysis are telling us. As for a next correction I also think a steep correction all the way down to 50K is very much likely.
There is a possibility the next bearish market circle is due to begin between june and october 2021. But if we'd had to choose, I'd say somwhere in between around mid august. Last bull to bear flipover gave us two chances to exit before getting significant losses.
I personally decided that a loss of 30% of my Bitcoin capital is acceptable if I'd decide to bail out (Exit price around 55K). But I'm also considering just holding part of my capital on Bitcoin for the very long-term 10-20 years and reinvest the other half of my capital for trading on the bearish market e.g. on BTC or various stablecoins like USDT.
While this is my vision on the the current trend of Bitcoin, I also believe we might be on new waters for the cryptocurrency market as well. While most of the behaviour seems somewhat copied compared to the previous bull-cycle, now there are actual big companies stepping in to crypto. Tesla, Paypal, Visa, so I'm not to sure if history is just gonna repeat itself over and over. We might just be inside a super cycle and going up way longer than we might expect. But I'm keeping my eye out for either signals.
As for my strategy for now, I think splitting my capital in one part Bitcoin and one part stablecoins plus trading, seems like the most likely way to go. I might as well hold on to my Bitcoin instead of going for either of both exits. We'll see what the market tells us when we get close enough.
I'm purely a beginner in technical analysis.
This is not financial advice. You take the consquence of your own actions.
Do with this information what you want, but always remember to DYOR.
Trade safe, stay safe!
Alex - out
Comment:
Comment:
If this plays out, as I extrapolated the cycle in time. This could be the longest bear market in history for the crypto market. Lasting about 4 years.
