AL168

2018.04.19 BTC 2hr - The case for a bullish $7.7k retrace

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
With BTC hitting $8.4k (missing by a dollar on GDAX), I'm seeing at least one story for a completed impulse wave structure that we can now analyze.

We could be done with the wave up (1-5) and are putting in an A-B-C correction. Wave B has retraced to almost exactly .786 of A, so this could possibly be the start of wave C.

Wave C likely target is around $7.7k, seen with confluence of:
- .382 retrace of the entire structure (this would be pretty bullish in the medium term)
- 1:1 extension of wave A
- bottom of the parallel channel indicated by the pitchfork

If these all come true, (go down now, $8.2k to $7.7k -> bounce), we will be in for another strong wave up soon.

Comment: some very optimistic buying led BTC to go up a bit more, so targets are tweaked:
- a quick retrace may likely bring us to $8.2k,
- a more extended retrace may bring us to about $8k flat

Comment: finally get some confirmation of a correction starting. Looking for a bounce/reaction at around $8,450

Trade closed: target reached: The 5th and final wave ended up being extended, leading to so many confusing counts. It ended up going higher before correcting. So it ended up going as high as $9.7k, and down to $8.6k, hitting exactly the bottom of a channel, as well as close to 38.2 retrace region (pic attached).

My sense is that the correction is now over, and we begin the 3rd wave of the cycle.

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