Albiet a 'weak' bull lol.
I spent a couple hours deeply analyzing some things from this sell off. Looking back at my previous prediction before I switched (forehead slap), I still believe in the fundamentals of my last one while also my old bear'ish one as well. So I analyzed and mixed the two at how I think 2019 to 2022 plays out. Now that I truly know the public and trader sentiment, I narrowed down a similar area and found a possible fractal where sentiment was about the same (coming off a big bull'ish trend, hard sell-off into correction causing uncertainty if really in a bull market, and questioning the rally
I still believe we are in a "bullish" market albeit the strong pullback which is expected during the very early bull stages. I think we still have another leg down which possibly could give us our lowest point before the eventual slow rise up depending on how monthly candles print for the next 2-3 months.
Timeline Steps:
1) A bounce from daily 200MA to ~$8500-8600ish to finish out our monthly candle.
2) Sept. Monthly candle prints 'Three Black Crows' pattern which results in another sell off leg down to ~$7300-7500
3) Hard bounce back to daily 200MA line. Possibly ~$8500 (rough guess) range
4) Sideways consolidation (may be month(s) of it into:
a) Pullback/correction ~$7800ish then long period of more sideways consolidation and low volatility, followed by eventually slow rise - or -
b) One more sell off down to $5k's to finish out the 'Three Black Crows' monthly pattern with a quick bounce up and then repeating from Step #3
I spent a couple hours deeply analyzing some things from this sell off. Looking back at my previous prediction before I switched (forehead slap), I still believe in the fundamentals of my last one while also my old bear'ish one as well. So I analyzed and mixed the two at how I think 2019 to 2022 plays out. Now that I truly know the public and trader sentiment, I narrowed down a similar area and found a possible fractal where sentiment was about the same (coming off a big bull'ish trend, hard sell-off into correction causing uncertainty if really in a bull market, and questioning the rally
I still believe we are in a "bullish" market albeit the strong pullback which is expected during the very early bull stages. I think we still have another leg down which possibly could give us our lowest point before the eventual slow rise up depending on how monthly candles print for the next 2-3 months.
Timeline Steps:
1) A bounce from daily 200MA to ~$8500-8600ish to finish out our monthly candle.
2) Sept. Monthly candle prints 'Three Black Crows' pattern which results in another sell off leg down to ~$7300-7500
3) Hard bounce back to daily 200MA line. Possibly ~$8500 (rough guess) range
4) Sideways consolidation (may be month(s) of it into:
a) Pullback/correction ~$7800ish then long period of more sideways consolidation and low volatility, followed by eventually slow rise - or -
b) One more sell off down to $5k's to finish out the 'Three Black Crows' monthly pattern with a quick bounce up and then repeating from Step #3
Comment:
I also forgot to mention, I still feel the same with Bitcoin in mid to long term:
1) Halving will product just a small upward movement, possibly flat, but I doubt any sell-off by the time we approach it. People are going to hold to 'sell the halving news' or just hold for long term.
2) A recession is inevitable eventually. Whether 2020, 2021, 2022, etc. Although more likely by mid to late 2020 and 2021. I feel the same as before: I believe by this time, Bitcoin will continue rising and the floor will just raise higher and higher over the span of 2 years after the Halving, eventually reaching a parabolic stage again once BITCOIN FINALLY PROVES IT HAS REAL VALIDATED IN REAL WORLD UTILITY AS A GLOBAL STORE OF VALUE MUCH LIKE GOLD. I think this is what will trigger and cause Bitcoin to go parabolic possibly over $100,000 as now it's not just priced at speculation, but it's actually proven worth something.
1) Halving will product just a small upward movement, possibly flat, but I doubt any sell-off by the time we approach it. People are going to hold to 'sell the halving news' or just hold for long term.
2) A recession is inevitable eventually. Whether 2020, 2021, 2022, etc. Although more likely by mid to late 2020 and 2021. I feel the same as before: I believe by this time, Bitcoin will continue rising and the floor will just raise higher and higher over the span of 2 years after the Halving, eventually reaching a parabolic stage again once BITCOIN FINALLY PROVES IT HAS REAL VALIDATED IN REAL WORLD UTILITY AS A GLOBAL STORE OF VALUE MUCH LIKE GOLD. I think this is what will trigger and cause Bitcoin to go parabolic possibly over $100,000 as now it's not just priced at speculation, but it's actually proven worth something.
Comment:
Also; during that parabolic stage.. 2021, 2022, or even 2023.. whenever it is. SELL EVERYTHING as soon as you hear the word Bitcoin mentioned in a hip hop song. Or when CNBC starts putting on segments on how to buy controversial Alts.
Comment:
PLEASE READ: If over the next two days, the daily 200MA fails and falls to ~$7200ish area, then disregard the first Timeline Scenario.. likely a serious of bear flags and dumps down to $6k then $5k at the bottom in a span of 2-3 weeks.
Comment:
I want to also add this in here to play devil's advocate.
IF Bitcoin reacts the opposite and dumps similar to how Gold did in 2009 Great Recession (which Gold may or may not hedge itself sometimes, and the Great Recession was almost a unique one of total financial collapse)... anyways; if Bitcoin dumps hard like Gold did during that recession. All bets are off.
Bitcoin will hit the total shits never to be seen again for 7-8 years if that happens. I think the next 3-4 years will be very interesting how it all goes down in the history books...
IF Bitcoin reacts the opposite and dumps similar to how Gold did in 2009 Great Recession (which Gold may or may not hedge itself sometimes, and the Great Recession was almost a unique one of total financial collapse)... anyways; if Bitcoin dumps hard like Gold did during that recession. All bets are off.
Bitcoin will hit the total shits never to be seen again for 7-8 years if that happens. I think the next 3-4 years will be very interesting how it all goes down in the history books...
Comment:
Its looking really weak around this daily 200MA line.. small bear flags keep breaking and retesting from bottom. We might see a huge dump within the next 36 hours.. pretty much a straight shot to possibly $6k before any bounce, yikes.
(coming off a big bull'ish trend, hard sell-off after long consolidation into correction causing uncertainty if really in a bull market, questioning the last rally, a very strong "I told you so" area, validating and intensifying disbelief, etc.)
I think some traits we find common is from a sentiment like this: most people turn bear for at least the short and mid term, but often the price does not go as low as they hoped to catch it. As they await a lengthy consolidation which turns out to actually be the bottom area, the price pumps upward, causing more disbelief. All the while, the floor keeps rising with every pullback/correction. Eventually, the disbelief will end and likely those not converted psy quick enough will get caught into fomo'ing in. And repeat.