Btc:USD Symmetrical Triangle: next 2 days crucial
TL:DR - We are nearing the critical stage of the triangle, expect a big move in the next week, I expect a bullish break BUT watch the $7000-$7100 area which if broken could be disaster.
UPDATE to the Bitcoin using 1 day candles and linear scale. After 2 weeks of limited action we have seen a great deal of movement in the last 2-3 days. I used to get depressed when I saw any bearish action but currently I am excited. The market is showing what I think is a very clear symmetrical triangle. Again, symmetrical triangles are formed by a series of lower highs and higher lows. This is associated with decreasing volume throughout the life of the triangle while investors wait to see how it will break. Triangles tend to break out around 2/3 to 3/4 from the apex (the place where the trendlines meet).
As you can see on the chart we are set up to meet all of these criteria: lower highs, a higher low, decreasing volume (black arrow), nearing the 2/3 region, approaching a third test of the lower boundary. I anticipate the next 7 days will crucial to determine if we break lower, which would be very ugly, or break higher, with a possibility of hitting $15k.
I am looking for a bounce off of the lower, purple, line. Previously I had said $6800 was the signal. I have readjusted the line so that now $7075 is the new critical signal. In bull markets we sometimes don't quite reach the lower trend line before rallying higher as buyers are eager to jump in and we may be seeing that now after bouncing off the $7280 price. I put in a very small buy in this area as we hesitated around it in case we don't go lower. I am hoping for a drop toward $7075 where I can put in a buy with 50% of my trading position.
*IF* we bounce off the lower purple line and see good buy side volume then we may see a rocket launch. My gut tells me it's a 60% chance of a bull run, 25% chance of bearish crash, 15% something else. For a bull run we will need some sort of catalyst in the form of good news.
The other possibility is we do not bounce off the purple trend line and instead fall lower. This brings in the possibilities of $6000 and lower. If we break lower then my aggressive buy around $7075 will fill and I may have to execute a stop loss in the $6700-$6800 range.
***This is not investing advice. I am not an investing professional. Do not invest what you cannot afford to lose. All investors should seek guidance from licensed financial advisers and not random people on the internet.***
UPDATE to the Bitcoin using 1 day candles and linear scale. After 2 weeks of limited action we have seen a great deal of movement in the last 2-3 days. I used to get depressed when I saw any bearish action but currently I am excited. The market is showing what I think is a very clear symmetrical triangle. Again, symmetrical triangles are formed by a series of lower highs and higher lows. This is associated with decreasing volume throughout the life of the triangle while investors wait to see how it will break. Triangles tend to break out around 2/3 to 3/4 from the apex (the place where the trendlines meet).
As you can see on the chart we are set up to meet all of these criteria: lower highs, a higher low, decreasing volume (black arrow), nearing the 2/3 region, approaching a third test of the lower boundary. I anticipate the next 7 days will crucial to determine if we break lower, which would be very ugly, or break higher, with a possibility of hitting $15k.
I am looking for a bounce off of the lower, purple, line. Previously I had said $6800 was the signal. I have readjusted the line so that now $7075 is the new critical signal. In bull markets we sometimes don't quite reach the lower trend line before rallying higher as buyers are eager to jump in and we may be seeing that now after bouncing off the $7280 price. I put in a very small buy in this area as we hesitated around it in case we don't go lower. I am hoping for a drop toward $7075 where I can put in a buy with 50% of my trading position.
*IF* we bounce off the lower purple line and see good buy side volume then we may see a rocket launch. My gut tells me it's a 60% chance of a bull run, 25% chance of bearish crash, 15% something else. For a bull run we will need some sort of catalyst in the form of good news.
The other possibility is we do not bounce off the purple trend line and instead fall lower. This brings in the possibilities of $6000 and lower. If we break lower then my aggressive buy around $7075 will fill and I may have to execute a stop loss in the $6700-$6800 range.
***This is not investing advice. I am not an investing professional. Do not invest what you cannot afford to lose. All investors should seek guidance from licensed financial advisers and not random people on the internet.***
Comment:
Price continues to move sideways. The market is waiting for news, waiting for a signal to buy or sell. I know in the title I said "next 2 days crucial" and then in the article say "7 days". These are somewhat arbitrary time frames. In early April we traded sideways for 2 week before an epic short squeeze moved us higher. We could again move sideways for several days/weeks so disregard my "next 2 days crucial" comment.