In 2015 If someone told me BTC would hit 20k in 3 years, I would have thought they were completely off their head. I dreamed about 10K but did not think it would become a reality in such a short time. PROVED WRONG.
POTENTIAL NEXT RALLY : The question we need to ask ourselves is whats going to fuel the next rally?
Last year it was the media showcasing Bitcoin up +....% bringing new users online, which (possibly most) are going to be underwater until 15k - 20k looking to sellout and breakeven if they have not already capitulated with the cryptos. A sour taste will be left in their mouth until they buy back at 40k.
Until then, these are not going to be the people that fuel the rally.
Next option? Financial institutions, brokers & Limited supply.
Apparently OTC orders have been increasing for the past 6 months at a rapid rate according the institutional investors in the space although theres no proof. ONLY speculating here, but if that is correct supply is going to be limited.
The EFT approval has been knocked back several times so far. It will eventually be approved. 2019, 2020 doesn't matter. Once one is approved this opens up all kinds of possibilities. Superannuation / 401k accounts and the possibility for every person with a portfolio to own Bitcoin. This is a BIG deal.
My 2 cents: I believe the above will create the perfect storm for the crypto space to blowoff much further than any of us expect or can comprehend without stretching our minds to the limits.
If played correctly is going to be insanely profitable. It will not be easy. From past experience trying to gauge how far a market is going to go and pulling out before it turns upside down is not easy.
Quote from Market wizards interview referring to the silver rally from 1980 ($4 - $50): "all the traders I know thought silver was overvalued at $7, almost all of us got out between there and $10 & the ones that didn't sell, rode it all the way to $50 & back to where they started or even into minus." I may have butchered the quote but you get the point.
Taking profit on the way up is essential but opportunity cost is as bad as a loss.
Back to the chart above:
BTC seems to be responding to this fib channel very well. I will be keeping an eye on the 0.614 level. If $4970 support breaks best case scenario is a massive sell off with a quick bounce back up to continue sideways and slight up trend. Second best, we bounce around in this area for weeks / months while ALTS do their thing and continue there little "ALT SEASON" they have going on. Not ideal: slow bleed across the board until final sell off.
Overall BULLISH long term.
If it completely turns upside down longterm at least the speed of this market has been great for learning and transferring the skills learned into other asset classes that otherwise would have taken 10x longer to accumulate.
Trade responsibly & ZOOM OUT.
POTENTIAL NEXT RALLY : The question we need to ask ourselves is whats going to fuel the next rally?
Last year it was the media showcasing Bitcoin up +....% bringing new users online, which (possibly most) are going to be underwater until 15k - 20k looking to sellout and breakeven if they have not already capitulated with the cryptos. A sour taste will be left in their mouth until they buy back at 40k.
Until then, these are not going to be the people that fuel the rally.
Next option? Financial institutions, brokers & Limited supply.
Apparently OTC orders have been increasing for the past 6 months at a rapid rate according the institutional investors in the space although theres no proof. ONLY speculating here, but if that is correct supply is going to be limited.
The EFT approval has been knocked back several times so far. It will eventually be approved. 2019, 2020 doesn't matter. Once one is approved this opens up all kinds of possibilities. Superannuation / 401k accounts and the possibility for every person with a portfolio to own Bitcoin. This is a BIG deal.
My 2 cents: I believe the above will create the perfect storm for the crypto space to blowoff much further than any of us expect or can comprehend without stretching our minds to the limits.
If played correctly is going to be insanely profitable. It will not be easy. From past experience trying to gauge how far a market is going to go and pulling out before it turns upside down is not easy.
Quote from Market wizards interview referring to the silver rally from 1980 ($4 - $50): "all the traders I know thought silver was overvalued at $7, almost all of us got out between there and $10 & the ones that didn't sell, rode it all the way to $50 & back to where they started or even into minus." I may have butchered the quote but you get the point.
Taking profit on the way up is essential but opportunity cost is as bad as a loss.
Back to the chart above:
BTC seems to be responding to this fib channel very well. I will be keeping an eye on the 0.614 level. If $4970 support breaks best case scenario is a massive sell off with a quick bounce back up to continue sideways and slight up trend. Second best, we bounce around in this area for weeks / months while ALTS do their thing and continue there little "ALT SEASON" they have going on. Not ideal: slow bleed across the board until final sell off.
Overall BULLISH long term.
If it completely turns upside down longterm at least the speed of this market has been great for learning and transferring the skills learned into other asset classes that otherwise would have taken 10x longer to accumulate.
Trade responsibly & ZOOM OUT.