At about $9k we're seeing some heavy resistance as price is hitting the 50 DMA and a zone of heavy resistance between $9000 and $9200 which requires breaking above the 50 DMA and then through the 50% fib retrace from the recent move from $5900 to $11800.
We can see that price has broken above the slightly descending upper channel trendline formed March 7. This channel will also provide extra resistance. The upper channel trendline is intersecting the ascending trendline that price has been following the past day or so and this intersection will happen this evening at 11:30 PM EST. Should the price follow this descending trendline down we could see the market lose faith in this rally. If we break sideways or continue to track the ascending trendline from the bottom formed March 14 then we could see a continuation of the creep upwards in the tight channel formed after the big breakout on Sunday.
What's exciting is that an ascending channel with a bottom trendline tracing back to the dip below $6k is quite close now at about $9600-$9700. If price can manage to continue a positive trajectory through this evening, ideally staying in the March 14 ascending channel, then we could see a strong push either into the ascending channel just above or the downward trendline off the ATH by March 24-26.
So getting through the heavy resistance below $9250 could open up a run to $9900-$10000 and a move above the yellow downward trendline would strongly signal a reversal and a run back to test $11.8k would seem inevitable.
With that being said, volume is super low right now, and I wouldn't be taking too much risk at this stage. It still seems highly plausible that we will revisit the March 2017 ascending trendline given its strength, which could provide an inverse H&S type pattern to help assure the market of a strong reversal.
Beyond $11.8k it's still too early to say. In 2014 there was a similar pattern with a break above the midpoint between the ATH and eventual low that crossed the downward trendline but then failed to continue a bullish trend and fell to even lower prices. 1 D RSI hasn't signaled a bottom so a trip lower remains plausible over the next few months though at this price 50 DMA is dangerously close to printing a death cross, and my feeling is that at this stage there is so much money invested in crypto that there will be a strong effort to see that the market doesn't collapse, especially since the entire market is now hinged on Bitcoin's survival of this downtrend, especially Ethereum.
Ethereum has just barely grazed the ascending trendline that goes way back (don't remember how far without looking) and seems to be relying entirely on Bitcoin reversing to avoid potentially an even bigger freefall. So when you consider everything that is riding on Bitcoin breaking out of this sym triangle and resuming a relatively bullish trend it would make sense that those who have capital available are using it to push prices higher and keep the market alive. Google Search Trends bottoming out, Tom Lee's BMI, and a bottoming of on-chain transactions all would suggest that we're pretty close to the bottom.
We can see that price has broken above the slightly descending upper channel trendline formed March 7. This channel will also provide extra resistance. The upper channel trendline is intersecting the ascending trendline that price has been following the past day or so and this intersection will happen this evening at 11:30 PM EST. Should the price follow this descending trendline down we could see the market lose faith in this rally. If we break sideways or continue to track the ascending trendline from the bottom formed March 14 then we could see a continuation of the creep upwards in the tight channel formed after the big breakout on Sunday.
What's exciting is that an ascending channel with a bottom trendline tracing back to the dip below $6k is quite close now at about $9600-$9700. If price can manage to continue a positive trajectory through this evening, ideally staying in the March 14 ascending channel, then we could see a strong push either into the ascending channel just above or the downward trendline off the ATH by March 24-26.
So getting through the heavy resistance below $9250 could open up a run to $9900-$10000 and a move above the yellow downward trendline would strongly signal a reversal and a run back to test $11.8k would seem inevitable.
With that being said, volume is super low right now, and I wouldn't be taking too much risk at this stage. It still seems highly plausible that we will revisit the March 2017 ascending trendline given its strength, which could provide an inverse H&S type pattern to help assure the market of a strong reversal.
Beyond $11.8k it's still too early to say. In 2014 there was a similar pattern with a break above the midpoint between the ATH and eventual low that crossed the downward trendline but then failed to continue a bullish trend and fell to even lower prices. 1 D RSI hasn't signaled a bottom so a trip lower remains plausible over the next few months though at this price 50 DMA is dangerously close to printing a death cross, and my feeling is that at this stage there is so much money invested in crypto that there will be a strong effort to see that the market doesn't collapse, especially since the entire market is now hinged on Bitcoin's survival of this downtrend, especially Ethereum.
Ethereum has just barely grazed the ascending trendline that goes way back (don't remember how far without looking) and seems to be relying entirely on Bitcoin reversing to avoid potentially an even bigger freefall. So when you consider everything that is riding on Bitcoin breaking out of this sym triangle and resuming a relatively bullish trend it would make sense that those who have capital available are using it to push prices higher and keep the market alive. Google Search Trends bottoming out, Tom Lee's BMI, and a bottoming of on-chain transactions all would suggest that we're pretty close to the bottom.
Comment:
I meant around $7500 we're pretty close to the bottom.
Comment:
A possibly more realistic outcome should price break above $9250 is a push to $10k followed by a reversal back to test the March 2017 trendline or at least the midpoint below $9k which should the market continue consolidating overall bullish sentiment, perhaps through some positive regulatory outcomes (or just anything to generate more transparency and certainty in the market) could result in a strong bullish boost above the big descending trendline (yellow) signaling a breakout.
A touch at $10k would be 5 touches in the triangle, and since a continuation of this would be positive there should be very strong expectations of a big breakout and a lot of capital on the sidelines will likely enter at that stage. So revisiting $8k after touching $10k would seem a lot less likely than say $9k-$9.5k since expectations will generally be consolidating bullish sentiment.
Based on these expectations a long position at current prices might be warranted but position size ought to be relatively small. It might be safer to wait for momentum off the approaching intersection between the descending and ascending trendlines before deciding on a position. Not quite sure yet how to trade this.
A touch at $10k would be 5 touches in the triangle, and since a continuation of this would be positive there should be very strong expectations of a big breakout and a lot of capital on the sidelines will likely enter at that stage. So revisiting $8k after touching $10k would seem a lot less likely than say $9k-$9.5k since expectations will generally be consolidating bullish sentiment.
Based on these expectations a long position at current prices might be warranted but position size ought to be relatively small. It might be safer to wait for momentum off the approaching intersection between the descending and ascending trendlines before deciding on a position. Not quite sure yet how to trade this.
Comment:
So about 5 hours to go until we get into this interesting zone. Probably useful to look at 1 and 5 min RSI to see how prices respond to intraday trading signals.
Comment:
It seems like we're likely to see this trade sideways through the intersection of these trendlines without much of a surprise given the massive resistance at $9000. Since the descending trendline appears to have some pull there might be another buy opportunity around $8800-$8850 before a bounce back to the ascending trendline close to $9k depending on how things look in the morning.
Since volume will dip going into the Asian open I'm not expecting much to happen until tomorrow morning.
Since volume will dip going into the Asian open I'm not expecting much to happen until tomorrow morning.
Comment:
Should the market not make any progress in cutting down this resistance at $9k by 8 AM EST (+/- 2 hours) we might see a breakdown that follows the descending trendline and falls back into the ascending channel formed March 18. Since this descending channel should have a much stronger effect than the ascending channel we might see a quicker dip back to $8400-$8500 or just a gradual dip that trades as low as $8600.
Probably by late evening tomorrow March 21 we'll get some sense of whether the market can break through $9k though things can change pretty quickly.
Probably by late evening tomorrow March 21 we'll get some sense of whether the market can break through $9k though things can change pretty quickly.
Comment:
I wasn't watching the market when it broke above $9k so I couldn't see how the order books changed and even though I thought this intersection could see a big move I didn't really think it would happen.
Now that the market has solidly moved into an ascending channel I'm not too sure there will be substantial resistance for the market to push $9500 either within the next day or by the end of the week if the price hugs a tight channel along the lower trendline.
We should have some sense of how this might play out if the market is still bumping between $9000 and $9100 by tomorrow morning or breaking above $9200.
Now that the market has solidly moved into an ascending channel I'm not too sure there will be substantial resistance for the market to push $9500 either within the next day or by the end of the week if the price hugs a tight channel along the lower trendline.
We should have some sense of how this might play out if the market is still bumping between $9000 and $9100 by tomorrow morning or breaking above $9200.
Comment:
Resistance has really grown below $10k, which is a concern when volume is declining and support in the order books appears to be declining below $9000.
We might be looking at a bull trap and it might be wise to look at hedging long positions with a short here on a momentum breakdown if you can catch it or just go short on a 2 hr candle close below $8800 preferably with meaningful oversold signals.
We might be looking at a bull trap and it might be wise to look at hedging long positions with a short here on a momentum breakdown if you can catch it or just go short on a 2 hr candle close below $8800 preferably with meaningful oversold signals.
Comment:
That being said we could see this creeping price action along the trendline for another day or so before anything happens.
A lot of money entering now seems focused on exiting below $10k, which isn't a strong signal so a big positive trigger in the next day or so might be needed to avoid a breakdown.
A lot of money entering now seems focused on exiting below $10k, which isn't a strong signal so a big positive trigger in the next day or so might be needed to avoid a breakdown.
Comment:
I only see some RSI Divergence on the 15 min chart so it seems like this rally hasn't signaled overbought.
I meant to say "overbought" instead of "oversold" two comments ago.
I meant to say "overbought" instead of "oversold" two comments ago.
Comment:
Since price failed to break $9200 it seems that there's been some capitulation and a quick drop to test the descending trendline (i.e. the descending upper channel trendline) that intersected last night. If we see a strong bounce back to the ascending trendline then this will be a positive sign.
A candle close below the ascending trendline could really open an even bigger momentum shift. Clearly, the market was watching for a break below this ascending trendline given the rapid fall in price.
Order books suggest we see a bounce here and the $100 bounce took about 3 minutes.
The market might wait up to the next 4 hr candle close before a big move but it seems likely that we could be seeing more volatility today.
Again, a breakdown below this descending trendline could lead to another sharp drop, but below this runs the bottom trendline of the ascending channel formed after the big breakout March 18, and then below that the major March 2017 ascending trendline.
It might not be worth trying to short this move as it would be a bit like the opposite of catching a falling knife though if you have long positions it might be worth it to go short on a momentum breakdown though I think it's more likely that we continue to see sideways price action but with more volatility, possibly resuming the ascending channel just below the current ascending channel.
So far price action has been consistent with these expecations.
A candle close below the ascending trendline could really open an even bigger momentum shift. Clearly, the market was watching for a break below this ascending trendline given the rapid fall in price.
Order books suggest we see a bounce here and the $100 bounce took about 3 minutes.
The market might wait up to the next 4 hr candle close before a big move but it seems likely that we could be seeing more volatility today.
Again, a breakdown below this descending trendline could lead to another sharp drop, but below this runs the bottom trendline of the ascending channel formed after the big breakout March 18, and then below that the major March 2017 ascending trendline.
It might not be worth trying to short this move as it would be a bit like the opposite of catching a falling knife though if you have long positions it might be worth it to go short on a momentum breakdown though I think it's more likely that we continue to see sideways price action but with more volatility, possibly resuming the ascending channel just below the current ascending channel.
So far price action has been consistent with these expecations.
Comment:
As far as the "death cross," since we've been well into a bear trend for 3 months now that doesn't fundamentally change anything, especially for those looking longer term. In 2014 prior to the death cross there was a sharp move to a new low, then a sharp rise followed by sideways trading as the death cross happened, then another dip but a higher low than previously, followed by a 50% move.
So prior to the death cross in 2014 you could have bought at a low that returned 88% in less than 2 months or bought after the death cross for a return of 50% in a month or less.
In 2014 though that bounce off the lows resulted in a much bigger dip eventually, but conditions in 2014 were fundamentally different than now. The big question is whether there will be a Mt. Gox of 2018 or if we'll find a way to create enough certainty and positive progress in the market to avoid that type of shock. Overall, the signs I've been seeing suggest a lot of positive progress on real projects meant to fix the major concerns in the market.
So prior to the death cross in 2014 you could have bought at a low that returned 88% in less than 2 months or bought after the death cross for a return of 50% in a month or less.
In 2014 though that bounce off the lows resulted in a much bigger dip eventually, but conditions in 2014 were fundamentally different than now. The big question is whether there will be a Mt. Gox of 2018 or if we'll find a way to create enough certainty and positive progress in the market to avoid that type of shock. Overall, the signs I've been seeing suggest a lot of positive progress on real projects meant to fix the major concerns in the market.
Comment:
We're only about 20% up off the recent low of about $7400 so I think we could see some volatility in the next day or so as we run into another set of intersecting trendlines.
By tomorrow morning we'll see the descending upper channel trendline run into the ascending lower channel trendline and this could be a major pivot if we don't see a big push below $8800 first. Since the risk:reward of selling off so soon below the descending upper channel seems rather poor in the limited amount of time we have I have a hard time seeing this play out.
What we could see is just sideways price action around the midpoint of this big symmetrical triangle right at about $8870 that gets us into the weekend and across this ascending channel followed by a continued slow push back above $9k.
By tomorrow morning we'll see the descending upper channel trendline run into the ascending lower channel trendline and this could be a major pivot if we don't see a big push below $8800 first. Since the risk:reward of selling off so soon below the descending upper channel seems rather poor in the limited amount of time we have I have a hard time seeing this play out.
What we could see is just sideways price action around the midpoint of this big symmetrical triangle right at about $8870 that gets us into the weekend and across this ascending channel followed by a continued slow push back above $9k.
Comment:
The move below $9800 starting March 8th took 5 days for price to fall below $8800 without bouncing back above so it makes sense that we're seeing quite a bit of support/resistance here around this confluence of trendlines to form a solid base for the next push to reach the big descending trendline around $10k.
Comment:
At this time the difference between the descending and ascending trendline is now $200, $8800 vs. $8600 and the order book has thinned out considerably. A run back to $8900+ to touch the other ascending trendline would make sense though we might just see bouncing between the midpoint at $8876 and the descending trendline.
Almost as soon as I wrote this the resistance below $9k grew considerably.
Almost as soon as I wrote this the resistance below $9k grew considerably.
Comment:
www.cftc.gov/PressRo...ssReleases/pr7674-18
www.dailycamera.com/...n-longmont-based-teh
It seems that the CFTC is doing a lot more this go around given greater resources to crack down on fraud. This should be seen as a good sign since it seemed like many of the cases from 2013-2015 were only just being resolved in 2017-2018.
www.dailycamera.com/...n-longmont-based-teh
It seems that the CFTC is doing a lot more this go around given greater resources to crack down on fraud. This should be seen as a good sign since it seemed like many of the cases from 2013-2015 were only just being resolved in 2017-2018.
Comment:
If you haven't seen this awesome analysis of exchange liquidity then you should:
medium.com/@sylvaina...-plague-ea1a3c1e0b5e
medium.com/@sylvaina...-plague-ea1a3c1e0b5e
Comment:
And it appears to have traded right back to that midpoint line. I would expect this to continue on declining volume though the selling pressure is getting pretty intense.
Comment:
Comment:
The market doesn't seem to be reacting at all to the arrest of Payza founder on charges of money laundering.
As a reference, this article recalls the market in 2013 when Silk Road was shut down and Bitcoin dipped 15% to below $120.
money.cnn.com/2013/1...shut-down/index.html
As a reference, this article recalls the market in 2013 when Silk Road was shut down and Bitcoin dipped 15% to below $120.
money.cnn.com/2013/1...shut-down/index.html
Comment:
While I'm inclined to tune out a lot of #fakenews that circulates as generalist crypto news or business news I'm inclined to think that there must be still 1% of the market being driven by these events that likely have no correlation when technical indicators suffice.
When the market failed at $11,800 there were some triggers but the neckline had already been tested repeatedly and bulls were near capitulation anyway. Trying to tie in price movements with minor events just makes no sense. Like Jack Dorsey boasted again about Bitcoin and that did nothing for price but if it had shot up 2% then we would have all been using confirmation bias to look for a reason.
twitter.com/PeterLBr...s/974641224484302848
Peter Brandt
I am incredibly leery of news or event-driven breakouts.
When the market failed at $11,800 there were some triggers but the neckline had already been tested repeatedly and bulls were near capitulation anyway. Trying to tie in price movements with minor events just makes no sense. Like Jack Dorsey boasted again about Bitcoin and that did nothing for price but if it had shot up 2% then we would have all been using confirmation bias to look for a reason.
twitter.com/PeterLBr...s/974641224484302848
Peter Brandt
I am incredibly leery of news or event-driven breakouts.
Comment:
Price seems to have some positive momentum. Should we see $8980s then there could be some faith in a positive price trajectory along the ascending trendline.
Comment:
The price seems to be working its way along the ascending trendline but the resistance is insane. It would take nearly twice as much buying to increase the price $250 to $9300 from $9050 as it would take to drop the price $250.
I'm not sure where this volume is going to come from but there doesn't seem to be a rush to exit the market so maybe there is something I'm missing.
I'm not sure where this volume is going to come from but there doesn't seem to be a rush to exit the market so maybe there is something I'm missing.
Comment:
After failing to stay above the ascending trendline, the intersection of the descending upper channel trendline clearly appears to have provided a strong impetus for bulls to capitulate and price dipped back into the descending channel. After about 3 hours of support within this next small, weak ascending channel we saw a solid back into the channel. This opens up a move to retest the March 2017 ascending trendline.
Comment:
The failure to maintain support above the last ascending trendline explains the rapid drop below that line. Retrace to about 38.2 fib level of the move between $7400 and $9167. Support suggests we could move sideways out of this new descending channel which would suggest a move back to where the weak ascending trendline intersects the descending upper channel line. This will probably be more of a dead cat bounce given the weakness of that trendline though altcoins probably were oversold and could represent an opportunity for entry.
This interesection is coming up in about 3 hours. Following that there might be a move along the descending trendline.
However, if price doesn't break $8500-$8550 within the next 2-2.5 hours then we could see another sharp dip within this new descending channel to retest the March 2017 trendline.
This interesection is coming up in about 3 hours. Following that there might be a move along the descending trendline.
However, if price doesn't break $8500-$8550 within the next 2-2.5 hours then we could see another sharp dip within this new descending channel to retest the March 2017 trendline.
Comment:
It seems unlikely at this point that price breaks to $8700 and a move back to $8600 might be an opportunity to take a short position in the event that we revisit $8k or lower.
Comment:
It seems like a lot of this volume below $8700 doesn't really want to sell so we'll see how this plays out... A lot of volume growing in the Bid.
Comment:
I guess I might be wrong about getting to $8700. Going back to $9100 doesn't seem so unreasonable now just looking at the order books and volume has increased.
Comment:
I should say, going back to $9100 doesn't seem unreasonable if the market can push past $8700. $8700 will be the test.
Comment:
I think my March 2017 trendline got messed up at some point so that projection is wrong. Need to redraw it. Aiming slightly higher than it should.
Comment:
It's pretty close to what it was before the dip reversal so I think this is more accurate.
It's pretty close to what it was before the dip reversal so I think this is more accurate.
Comment:
It seems like the market is responding now that price has moved out of the sharp descending channel and if we get a close in the 4 hr candle in the next 2 hours in this range we could see $8700 or higher.
Comment:
The resistance at $8700 has been too much for the low volume that we're seeing now and as evidenced in the 1 min charts we're starting to see a bit of volatiltity as one part of this market wants to chase the sharp descending channel and the other trend is to follow the more gradual descending upper channel line. This confluence is extremely small so the market will probably move in the next few hours in one direction or the other but we need some more volume to push things back to an ascending channel/trend.
It still seems plausible here that we get a bigger dip that allows an inverse H&S to form, but this sharp negative move will likely need to happen before the end of the day.
It still seems plausible here that we get a bigger dip that allows an inverse H&S to form, but this sharp negative move will likely need to happen before the end of the day.
Comment:
Also, IF this were an inverse H&S forming it would be fairly small and the breakout might only just push the price to the downward trendline though a logical breakout for this triangle would include this pattern to drive more volume into the overall breakout of the triangle.
Comment:
The last inverse H&S was a much stronger pattern whereas this one basically doesn't exist on the 1 D charts so it seems unlikely to play out though a strong negative move here would seem possible.
Comment:
I wrote this a few hours ago but forgot to click the button and it seems that the target was grazed but didn't quite stay up there...
A push to $8767-$8775, or above this next ascending trendline in the next 30-90 minutes would be a bullish sign and the price seems to have moved far enough away from this other channel that we can expect either more sideways price action for the next day or so or a slow move up to follow an ascending trendline. Still a ton of resistance below $8800 though volume seems to be picking up a little.
While I haven't done any analysis here this seems consistent with the pattern of watching major price action unfold over the weekend. With that being said I don't believe there's much going on to provide a trigger either way so maybe we'll just see no more than a $8200-$9200 trading range.
A push to $8767-$8775, or above this next ascending trendline in the next 30-90 minutes would be a bullish sign and the price seems to have moved far enough away from this other channel that we can expect either more sideways price action for the next day or so or a slow move up to follow an ascending trendline. Still a ton of resistance below $8800 though volume seems to be picking up a little.
While I haven't done any analysis here this seems consistent with the pattern of watching major price action unfold over the weekend. With that being said I don't believe there's much going on to provide a trigger either way so maybe we'll just see no more than a $8200-$9200 trading range.
Comment:
An insane buy wall just entered near the market price. If this doesn't trigger a breakout then I'm going to be shocked.
Comment:
Despite this 400+ BTC volume sitting at $8600 the price isn't moving a single cent.
Comment:
It's been the same price for 17 minutes now.
Comment:
and now it just jumped but this buy volume hasn't really changed so it's still too early to tell.
Comment:
And that was a total dump job...
Comment:
It seems like some whale needed to sell a lot of BTC and put up a huge buy order to trigger more buying at the market price and then ended up running out of buyers and triggered a breakdown... I saw at least two 50 BTC market sells in there... but if that were the case I'm not sure why the buy volume stuck around because normally it disappears much more quickly. Unlike the huge breakout at the low, this didn't seem like fake volume but people bought into that momentum breakout whereas this one failed.
Comment:
We're now trading below the 200 EMA but getting above $8500 seems possible. This zone of "heavy support" below $8600 that began March 14 has seen a lot of activity since early February. A failure to break free of this zone will be a very bearish sign for the market.
We could see a test of the March 2017 ascending trendline in the next 2-4 days with a possible dip to $7850-$8000. A failure to bounce off this trendline will lead to further losses as the market could capitulate and allow a retest of previous lows. Until we actually revisit the March 2017 trendline expecting a revisit to $6k seems like a distant possibility unless we see some kind of negative shock in the market.
With the price solidly below the descending upper channel trendline we could expect a gradual move along the trendline with $8250 (50% fib level of move from $7400 to $9200) as support over the next few days with the intersection between the March 2017 ascending trendline and the descending upper channel trendline happening on March 28 8:00 AM EST / 5:00 AM PST which would be Wednesday morning in the US. If we get no other triggers or major technical indicators then that would coincide with a time that tends to see major price action.
We could see a test of the March 2017 ascending trendline in the next 2-4 days with a possible dip to $7850-$8000. A failure to bounce off this trendline will lead to further losses as the market could capitulate and allow a retest of previous lows. Until we actually revisit the March 2017 trendline expecting a revisit to $6k seems like a distant possibility unless we see some kind of negative shock in the market.
With the price solidly below the descending upper channel trendline we could expect a gradual move along the trendline with $8250 (50% fib level of move from $7400 to $9200) as support over the next few days with the intersection between the March 2017 ascending trendline and the descending upper channel trendline happening on March 28 8:00 AM EST / 5:00 AM PST which would be Wednesday morning in the US. If we get no other triggers or major technical indicators then that would coincide with a time that tends to see major price action.
Comment:
Now back up to about the upper range of about $8600 it seems the market moved based on news that Binance was going to Malta. It seems plausible too that the market dipped based on some Binance FUD as well though on a technical basis that likely played only a small role in triggering a slide given the heavy resistance that's been seen below $9200.
That resistance is now building up very heavily between $8650 and $8700 but there was some momentum and volume recently. Overall though we're seeing a steep decline in volume. That usually just keeps price going sideways.
If we can stay sideways at $8600 moving out of this descending channel that will be somewhat bullish or at least less bearish.
We should know by late this evening...
That resistance is now building up very heavily between $8650 and $8700 but there was some momentum and volume recently. Overall though we're seeing a steep decline in volume. That usually just keeps price going sideways.
If we can stay sideways at $8600 moving out of this descending channel that will be somewhat bullish or at least less bearish.
We should know by late this evening...
Comment:
Touched off $8700 and resistance is now backing off a bit. A move back to $9k seems promising...
Comment:
On the 45 min chart RSI and MACD convergence can be seen so at least within the next few days there's a strong probability of a push up.
On the 45 min chart RSI and MACD convergence can be seen so at least within the next few days there's a strong probability of a push up.
Comment:
I suppose it's possible that this MACD/RSI Convergence triggered a breakout rather than the Binance news.
Comment:
I wouldn't have been awake to trade this dip but I did miss drawing this new trendline, which would have suggested the possibility of a move back towards it as happened this morning USA time.
It seems we could get some more price action by this evening assuming sideways trading into the intersection with this ascending trendline. Resistance below $9130 is looking pretty crazy so a push past $9k might not result in sufficient momentum to go higher but overall volume is so low that it wouldn't take a huge liquidity shift to quickly push the price up (or down) across the major exchanges. Momentum is still slightly positive but something will need to happen in the next 12 hours or so to kick the price past $9k...
We've managed to pass the intersecting descending upper channel line without touching back so it seems for the most part we're looking at sideways price action for a while.
I did notice that the BID built up to a certain level and then a large 200+ BTC piece of volume shifted lower. This is concerning since the market is clearly being propped up in a very fragile manner by a select few ...
I wouldn't have been awake to trade this dip but I did miss drawing this new trendline, which would have suggested the possibility of a move back towards it as happened this morning USA time.
It seems we could get some more price action by this evening assuming sideways trading into the intersection with this ascending trendline. Resistance below $9130 is looking pretty crazy so a push past $9k might not result in sufficient momentum to go higher but overall volume is so low that it wouldn't take a huge liquidity shift to quickly push the price up (or down) across the major exchanges. Momentum is still slightly positive but something will need to happen in the next 12 hours or so to kick the price past $9k...
We've managed to pass the intersecting descending upper channel line without touching back so it seems for the most part we're looking at sideways price action for a while.
I did notice that the BID built up to a certain level and then a large 200+ BTC piece of volume shifted lower. This is concerning since the market is clearly being propped up in a very fragile manner by a select few ...
Comment:
A bit of momentum between $8876 and $8916 but it might still be too early. The next 5 hours will hopefully bring in some volume.
Comment:
The expectation here is that much of the selling around $9k will be shorts and a big volume push through $9150 will stop out most of those shorts and lead to reversals that push the breakout to $9500.
At $8916.44 on GDAX a market buy for $11 M would push price to $9150. So in terms of market liquidity it's not a huge amount relative to total volume so it would seem to make sense that a few whales would help trigger this breakout under the right conditions if a move to $9500-$9800 becomes highly probable.
At $8916.44 on GDAX a market buy for $11 M would push price to $9150. So in terms of market liquidity it's not a huge amount relative to total volume so it would seem to make sense that a few whales would help trigger this breakout under the right conditions if a move to $9500-$9800 becomes highly probable.
Comment:
Google Search Trends is showing the first positive uptrend for "Bitcoin" since the Jan 21-27 period. If this bottoming in search holds then one could reasonably expect a new wave of interest that follows a bounce in price, which has already happened at the $6k dip. If this newer wave of market participants looks at the recent market history, $9k seems reasonable as it is right in between the two price levels recently hit at $5.9k and $11.8k.
The search trends haven't really "bounced" so that might be too much to presume. We're probably just as likely to see another small dip as we are to see a push past $9k at this point.
The search trends haven't really "bounced" so that might be too much to presume. We're probably just as likely to see another small dip as we are to see a push past $9k at this point.
Comment:
Considering how low volume still is (and that it's Saturday) it's not that surprising we're seeing a dip back to that descending upper channel line. It seemed like a lot of shorts were being taken at about $9000 and eventually this imbalance tilted the order book to sell off.
Also, there could've been some phantom volume that pulled off like it did earlier today which led to a dip.
Also, there could've been some phantom volume that pulled off like it did earlier today which led to a dip.
Comment:
I wrote this yesterday but was so sleepy I guess I didn't click the button.
Given the density of the order book and the gradual slope of the descending upper channel trendline this market looks like it's going to take a slow move along this trendline. Touching $8300-$8350 could trigger a bounce back to the $8500-$8900 range. Given the huge resistance now between $8900 and $9000 it seems like the market needs some external triggers to boost momentum.
It looks increasingly likely that we're going to move into this descending channel and this would open up a move to $7925-$8000 but we could see fairly sideways price action for the next 3 days until we get this intersection between the March 2017 ascending trendline and this descending channel, which should attract more volume.
Going short below $8500 seems low risk:reward and a contrarian strategy here would be to look for a big momentum swing that closes out shorts above $9000. Given the huge volume there it seems possible that we could get a huge momentum breakout should some external trigger or group of whales pump the market enough to get past $9300.
Given the density of the order book and the gradual slope of the descending upper channel trendline this market looks like it's going to take a slow move along this trendline. Touching $8300-$8350 could trigger a bounce back to the $8500-$8900 range. Given the huge resistance now between $8900 and $9000 it seems like the market needs some external triggers to boost momentum.
It looks increasingly likely that we're going to move into this descending channel and this would open up a move to $7925-$8000 but we could see fairly sideways price action for the next 3 days until we get this intersection between the March 2017 ascending trendline and this descending channel, which should attract more volume.
Going short below $8500 seems low risk:reward and a contrarian strategy here would be to look for a big momentum swing that closes out shorts above $9000. Given the huge volume there it seems possible that we could get a huge momentum breakout should some external trigger or group of whales pump the market enough to get past $9300.
Comment:
It looks like the symmetrical triangle in Litecoin is going to be invalidated should BTC continue to move sideways. A breakout in Litecoin could also trigger a breakout in BTC similar to how the Litecoin Cash hard fork mania seemed to trigger a positive move in BTC.
Comment:
Looking at regional Google Search Trends results shows that Asian countries clearly aren't using Google as Japan ranks last in this list. So this would somewhat invalidate the idea of using Google Search Trends though there's likely a strong correlation between these results and those of other search portals used by Japan and S. Korea.
Comment:
Now that Saturday has closed, Google Search Trends shows "Bitcoin going 20, 19, 18 over the last three weeks. This has fluctuated a fair amount but this clearly shows a deceleration in the relative decline in search interest for "Bitcoin" with about 5% decline per week. Looking at a weekly chart Bitcoin has more or less moved sideways over the last 8 weeks so the market seems to be stabilizing and fewer weak hands are participating. Speculative short sellers could be in for a rude awakening should a coordinated movement reverse the current trend.
Unlike simply "hodling" going short incurs a continuous cost and going into a losing position can result in a much more dramatic loss of capital should a stop not be set. So if you're looking to pump the market a build up of short positions can be a way to trigger very dramatic and instantaneous buying.
Unlike simply "hodling" going short incurs a continuous cost and going into a losing position can result in a much more dramatic loss of capital should a stop not be set. So if you're looking to pump the market a build up of short positions can be a way to trigger very dramatic and instantaneous buying.
Comment:
On the morning of 3/23 price moved from about $8250 to $8900 after signs of RSI/MACD Convergence on the 45 min chart. RSI/MACD Convergence on the 45 min chart is again suggesting oversold conditions at least for the near term (1 day).
There's a lot of resistance at $8500 and then moderate resistance back to $8900 while overall volume has been exceedingly low. It seems a big pump or dump could really move the markets right now.
There's a lot of resistance at $8500 and then moderate resistance back to $8900 while overall volume has been exceedingly low. It seems a big pump or dump could really move the markets right now.
Comment:
It seems like there was either some spoofy activity in the Ask or there's some testing of triggers to sell. Order volume showed sell volume of about 80 BTC drop very quickly to less than 30 BTC all the while price failed to move and no big market orders filled.
Comment:
What's notable with this recent dip is that volume overall is still incredibly low relative to recent moves. Now that we're around the March 2017 trendline we could see more downside, but I think it will depend largely on whales that are competing against each other to push the market one way or the other.
I just noticed a massive spoof in the Ask where over 50 BTC of volume just disappeared so clearly there's some attempt to pump the Ask (i.e. "dump").
I just noticed a massive spoof in the Ask where over 50 BTC of volume just disappeared so clearly there's some attempt to pump the Ask (i.e. "dump").
Comment:
Volume seems to be increasing as we approach 15 minutes to a 4 hr candle close. Getting past $7930 should open up a run back to $8k.
Comment:
A conspiracy minded part of me thinks Roger Ver and his buddies are trying to destroy Bitcoin so they can convince everyone that Bitcoin Cash is better even though they've got 5.6% of the volume on a day of relatively low volume overall and when blocks are basically empty on the network.
Comment:
5.6% of Bitcoin's volume.
Comment:
This wall of volume at $7930 has pulled off.
Comment:
But now there's even more resistance at $7900-$7910 on declining volume. Clearly some kind of game being played out between whales here.
Comment:
On GDAX there's clearly a sell wall at $7910 that went from 70 BTC to 111+ BTC and now there's a huge amount of volume that's barely moving the price because hardly anyone is market selling but someone just market bought 33.235 BTC.
Comment:
4 hr RSI is now 30, which hasn't been touched since the last bottom on Mar. 18. If we don't see a rebound from here then this could open up a much bigger drop. Volume has creeped up 30+% but still not a lot relative to other big moves.
Comment:
We're now touching off the bottom of a new descending channel that started Mar. 20.
Comment:
For a moment sell volume dropped off and now we're seeing this sell wall again at $7895 but almost as soon as I wrote that it bounced to $7905.
Comment:
Tom Lee discussing the reduced liquidity from the recent sell off in equities seems appropriate for the current sell-off in BTC. With volume falling to such a low level, it doesn't take much to tip the scales one way or the other. Selling intensity has been noticeably lower, and I think that goes back to the range of price movement we've seen between $19900 to $5900 versus $11800 to $7400. It's not nearly as scary at $7900 since two more sell offs of 30% or more would seem extremely unlikely given that the liquidity sitting on the sidelines will just all rush back in. If there were some fundamental problem with the market, which is still possible, then we might see that kind of price movement, but at the end of the day, if price were to get back to sub $5k we're still likely looking at very strong risk:reward and the likely outcome would be a rush to overbuy that pushes prices back into the $7.5k-$10k range.
So $7.9k seems "normal" at this point which would explain why we're not seeing a huge rush for the exits like with previous draw downs as clueless investors switch their positions to lose every time the price jumps.
I'm on a telegram group right now and this one guy has lost 80% of his capital and he continues to just trade incredibly stupidly, going short, then long, and never making any money despite constant opportunities because there's a clear lack of understanding of basic position and risk management fundamentals.
So $7.9k seems "normal" at this point which would explain why we're not seeing a huge rush for the exits like with previous draw downs as clueless investors switch their positions to lose every time the price jumps.
I'm on a telegram group right now and this one guy has lost 80% of his capital and he continues to just trade incredibly stupidly, going short, then long, and never making any money despite constant opportunities because there's a clear lack of understanding of basic position and risk management fundamentals.
Comment:
This isn't to discount the possibility that we get back to $6k, but given that overall liquidity in the entire market is still very high I think there will be a lot of people looking for optimal entries with the current draw down in BTC and altcoin prices for longer term investment.
Here's the new channel:
www.cnbc.com/vi...y-this-dip.html?__source=s...
Here's the new channel:
www.cnbc.com/vi...y-this-dip.html?__source=s...
Comment:
Oops. Wrong link.
Comment:
Here you can see both the new descending channel but also the 45 min ADX is screaming oversold in the near term as it is over 73. The last time ADX hit 73 on the 45 min chart the market reversed by 9%.
Comment:
Also, prior to this month the last time ADX went over 73 was in November 2017 and that was a sell signal versus the current negative trend. So my feeling is that this trend is running out of room in the near term.
4 hr ADX only suggests that we're going sideways on a more expanded timescale and 1 D ADX could go either way though the overall suggestion is that we have a weaker trend than the previous dip with ADX flattening at a much lower point than the last dip. So if this dip continues, we're not likely to see the same level of selling off as last time.
4 hr ADX only suggests that we're going sideways on a more expanded timescale and 1 D ADX could go either way though the overall suggestion is that we have a weaker trend than the previous dip with ADX flattening at a much lower point than the last dip. So if this dip continues, we're not likely to see the same level of selling off as last time.
Comment:
Well that was a big jump. Like $170 in 2 minutes.
Comment:
It was $220 in 2 minutes. So almost 2.5% from $7880 to $8100.
Comment:
I had a 5 min chart so it was more than 2 min for $220. We're now looking at $7886 to $8170 in less than 20 minutes. So that would be 3.6% in less than 20 minutes (if you sold). As I wrote this it went above $8200.
Comment:
We're seeing quite a bit of spoofy resistance around $8200-$8300 and 45 min RSI hit 50 so we could see some sideways price action here followed by more volume...
Comment:
Well that move happened so quickly I wasn't even following the market when it happened. Clearly, some whale dumped somewhere and everyone else followed.
Comment:
What's troubling about this move back down is that instead of moving past the middle of this new channel price shot back down towards the bottom of this new channel putting it below the Mar. 2017 trendline.
The 4 hr candle closes in about an hour and 20 min. so we'll see if this sparks a move in either direction. The last dip only saw two 4 hr candle closes below the trendline while we're looking at a third now if price doesn't bounce back above $8k.
The 4 hr candle closes in about an hour and 20 min. so we'll see if this sparks a move in either direction. The last dip only saw two 4 hr candle closes below the trendline while we're looking at a third now if price doesn't bounce back above $8k.
Comment:
I looked at the Ask order book and thought that looks pretty thin... and then the price started to move. Clearly, some whale or bot is out of the market now.
Comment:
While the 45 min ADX signaled a short breakout none of the other charts suggested a more extended run unlike previous signals where the 45 min ADX was confirmed by a strong signal on 2 hr.
1 D ADX has been flat now for about 7 days which usually suggests a peak of this trend. Two consecutive negative trends in a row suggests we're entering a bear market but it also suggests the next trend will be positive as I have not seen any period of time in which Bitcoin has seen three consecutive negative ADX peaks of 30 or greater.
To find the last two consecutive ADX peaks of over 30 you have to go back to 2014 where it happened twice between Feb. and April 2014 and August and October 2014, basically the heart of the "bear market".
1 D ADX has been flat now for about 7 days which usually suggests a peak of this trend. Two consecutive negative trends in a row suggests we're entering a bear market but it also suggests the next trend will be positive as I have not seen any period of time in which Bitcoin has seen three consecutive negative ADX peaks of 30 or greater.
To find the last two consecutive ADX peaks of over 30 you have to go back to 2014 where it happened twice between Feb. and April 2014 and August and October 2014, basically the heart of the "bear market".
Comment:
The buy wall at $7800 pulled off and this has triggered a wave of selling.
Comment:
Despite what appears to be a very thin order book volume seems to be increasing still. Someone just market bought 16+ BTC at $7788
Comment:
A market buy of 1000 BTC right now would take price to $8600 while I market sell
of 1000 BTC would drop price only $200.
of 1000 BTC would drop price only $200.
Comment:
I was going to say maybe Litepay was a reason for LTC taking a much bigger dip relative to BTC but it seems that just about every alt has been crushed in the last day or so.
Comment:
Should the market fail to signal a reversal here a short below $7500 could make sense given the strong probability of heading into an extended bear market. Until we actually see $7500 I'm skeptical we'll see enough volume to get there given the support above $7500. Of course, this could all be fake volume so who knows.
A 30% drop would put us at $5446. A 3.6% move from $7780 to $7500 doesn't seem likely to trigger panic selling unless there was something fundamentally wrong in the market.
While I was calculating my cost basis we got a breakout from $7770 to $7950 in 3 minutes.
A 30% drop would put us at $5446. A 3.6% move from $7780 to $7500 doesn't seem likely to trigger panic selling unless there was something fundamentally wrong in the market.
While I was calculating my cost basis we got a breakout from $7770 to $7950 in 3 minutes.
Comment:
I have no idea what that was all about but it looked like a low liquidity breakout. Looking back at 15 min charts for RSI convergence and divergence I'm finding a lot of good trading opportunities signaled either convergence or divergence prior to decent size ($300-$600) moves.
Previously I'd ignored those as noise but they seem to have some predictive strength that I'll have to look into more.
Previously I'd ignored those as noise but they seem to have some predictive strength that I'll have to look into more.
Comment:
I've drawn a few more trendlines including a new "pink channel" for this recent drop in price, a green trendline that goes back to Sept 2017 and a purple trendline that connects the most recent low around $7400 with the higher low around $7770 from yesterday.
I've drawn a few more trendlines including a new "pink channel" for this recent drop in price, a green trendline that goes back to Sept 2017 and a purple trendline that connects the most recent low around $7400 with the higher low around $7770 from yesterday.
Comment:
The big red trendline, which is the Mar 2017 trend is still barely holding on but we've been seeing a bounce between the green Sept 2017 trendline and a steady decline with the newer pink channel while also moving along the lower trendline of the blue channel.
We should see by this evening whether price can hold on to either the green or the red ascending trendlines and move out of the pink channel. The next 4 hr candle closes in about an hour so we could see some confirmation of either trend in the next 1-5 hours. If it follows the bottom of the blue channel then we might need 12 or more hours before we see a clear direction.
In light of the rapid decline in liquidity this market could go either way depending on the major forces in the market and whether they see this as a critical level to defend or an opportunity to drive prices lower.
Based on 1 D ADX with two consecutive negative trends of 30+ it's plausible that we go lower but it seems more highly probable based on 4+ years of price history that we get a positive trend after 2 negative ones. Even if this positive trend turns out to be weak and we only get to the $8900 level and a sideways move through the triangle, this will preserve the longer term bullish trend for the time being, i.e. through mid-April.
We should see by this evening whether price can hold on to either the green or the red ascending trendlines and move out of the pink channel. The next 4 hr candle closes in about an hour so we could see some confirmation of either trend in the next 1-5 hours. If it follows the bottom of the blue channel then we might need 12 or more hours before we see a clear direction.
In light of the rapid decline in liquidity this market could go either way depending on the major forces in the market and whether they see this as a critical level to defend or an opportunity to drive prices lower.
Based on 1 D ADX with two consecutive negative trends of 30+ it's plausible that we go lower but it seems more highly probable based on 4+ years of price history that we get a positive trend after 2 negative ones. Even if this positive trend turns out to be weak and we only get to the $8900 level and a sideways move through the triangle, this will preserve the longer term bullish trend for the time being, i.e. through mid-April.
Comment:
Looking at flat ADX on 1 D charts we can see that it's rare (or completely uncommon) for ADX over 30-35 to stay flat for more than 7 days going back to late 2013. While a negative trend can persist while ADX declines, declining ADX generally represents a loss of trend strength so the market more or less trades sideways or slightly up or slightly down until the next trend forms.
Since the current ADX has yet to decline this could go either way. We might see continuation and a stronger trend or a reversal though the previous trend was fairly strong as we saw a draw down of 70%. Historically, previous ADX that have broken on negative trends have seen major triggers/shocks. It seems that absent any shocks in the market we're likely to see a reversal though it's impossible to call it until it happens.
Looking at flat ADX on 1 D charts we can see that it's rare (or completely uncommon) for ADX over 30-35 to stay flat for more than 7 days going back to late 2013. While a negative trend can persist while ADX declines, declining ADX generally represents a loss of trend strength so the market more or less trades sideways or slightly up or slightly down until the next trend forms.
Since the current ADX has yet to decline this could go either way. We might see continuation and a stronger trend or a reversal though the previous trend was fairly strong as we saw a draw down of 70%. Historically, previous ADX that have broken on negative trends have seen major triggers/shocks. It seems that absent any shocks in the market we're likely to see a reversal though it's impossible to call it until it happens.
Comment:
I probably should've said: "Historically, previous ADX that have broken higher than 50 on negative trends..."
Comment:
On Aug. 18, 2015 something happened that caused price to decline from $263 to about $162 in a day and this triggered a strong ADX over 50 that ended up being completely lacking in prediction due to the strength of the 1 day price move. In reality the trend reversed from the very first day of the shock while ADX lagged by about 2 weeks.
On Jan. 13-14, 2015 something triggered a sell off from $268 to $180 over two days after about 6 continuous months of declining prices that led to a sharp rise in ADX though again, ADX was a lagging indicator as the market bottomed following this decline though there was a 7 month period of volatile sideways trading that led up to the first incident.
In the absence of major market shocks like we've historically seen it seems implausible that we'll be seeing some "bear market" like 2014-2015 when the market was still completely immature and overrun by amateurs. While the market is still immature we're seeing substantially more technical progress and it seems likely that Bitcoin follows the path of equities (or leads the way), which are likely to see another run through the end of the year since interest rates remain low and corporate tax reform should drive strong growth.
On Jan. 13-14, 2015 something triggered a sell off from $268 to $180 over two days after about 6 continuous months of declining prices that led to a sharp rise in ADX though again, ADX was a lagging indicator as the market bottomed following this decline though there was a 7 month period of volatile sideways trading that led up to the first incident.
In the absence of major market shocks like we've historically seen it seems implausible that we'll be seeing some "bear market" like 2014-2015 when the market was still completely immature and overrun by amateurs. While the market is still immature we're seeing substantially more technical progress and it seems likely that Bitcoin follows the path of equities (or leads the way), which are likely to see another run through the end of the year since interest rates remain low and corporate tax reform should drive strong growth.
Comment:
Also, I'm inclined to think that the CFTC and the SEC will work quietly behind the scenes to clean things up as they've been lagging in enforcement while not disturbing markets too much.
Despite my overall fear of regulatory risk going back to May when ICOs were enjoying totally reckless freedom I've seen fairly "quiet" enforcement and the fact that the SEC has chosen not to punish the DAO suggests that they will allow self-regulating policies to help preserve investor capital rather than have a "take down" approach that will harm investors.
Despite my overall fear of regulatory risk going back to May when ICOs were enjoying totally reckless freedom I've seen fairly "quiet" enforcement and the fact that the SEC has chosen not to punish the DAO suggests that they will allow self-regulating policies to help preserve investor capital rather than have a "take down" approach that will harm investors.
Comment:
The SEC has also very explicitly used this approach with many ICOs recently and that should be a positive sign for the market overall in terms of regulatory risk.
On the flip side, exchanges are still a big gray area, especially in light of the recent analysis by Sylvain Ribes on wash trading on OKex and Huobi. With that finger being pointed though and OKex and Huobi looking to expand into other markets they're going to need to clean that up themselves or face market failure so this could be self-correcting as well.
On the flip side, exchanges are still a big gray area, especially in light of the recent analysis by Sylvain Ribes on wash trading on OKex and Huobi. With that finger being pointed though and OKex and Huobi looking to expand into other markets they're going to need to clean that up themselves or face market failure so this could be self-correcting as well.
Comment:
I'm not calling a bottom yet because it seems possible that a low liquidity move to $7500 is still plausible. With that being said, it doesn't seem like current market participants have been rushing to exit as witnessed by the extremely low volumes we've seen recently.
My gut feeling is that institutional investment will likely accumulate positions behind the scenes in the same manner that several large coin holders have built up positions over the last 3 years, looking for optimal buying opportunities rather than making a huge announcement that drives up price.
Given that Bitcoin halving is still about 2 years away, this should allow a clear strategy for accumulation prior to that date when the expectation will be that price jumps dramatically sometime before or after that date.
At the last halving in May 2016 BTC price moved 72% from May 26 to June 17. And this was after a continuous ascent from late August 2015 that saw a 100% gain.
This was from 81% of the ATH of $1169 that was arguably a manipulation driven by Mt. Gox so who really knows what the market conditions were "really" like.
So could we go back to sub $4k? Sure, but at $8k we're already at the equivalent of August 2015 levels so it seems like a big shock would be necessary to get back there. And if we're to assume that a halving could drive a big price increase then $12k would be a "conservative" target for 2020.
If you're considering BTC as a longer term store of value it seems safe at this price level, and if you're keeping a conservative amount (i.e. 25-50% of your target allocation) in crypto then you should have additional capital to deploy should prices fall even lower.
My gut feeling is that institutional investment will likely accumulate positions behind the scenes in the same manner that several large coin holders have built up positions over the last 3 years, looking for optimal buying opportunities rather than making a huge announcement that drives up price.
Given that Bitcoin halving is still about 2 years away, this should allow a clear strategy for accumulation prior to that date when the expectation will be that price jumps dramatically sometime before or after that date.
At the last halving in May 2016 BTC price moved 72% from May 26 to June 17. And this was after a continuous ascent from late August 2015 that saw a 100% gain.
This was from 81% of the ATH of $1169 that was arguably a manipulation driven by Mt. Gox so who really knows what the market conditions were "really" like.
So could we go back to sub $4k? Sure, but at $8k we're already at the equivalent of August 2015 levels so it seems like a big shock would be necessary to get back there. And if we're to assume that a halving could drive a big price increase then $12k would be a "conservative" target for 2020.
If you're considering BTC as a longer term store of value it seems safe at this price level, and if you're keeping a conservative amount (i.e. 25-50% of your target allocation) in crypto then you should have additional capital to deploy should prices fall even lower.
Comment:
Between $8k and $12k the market is seeing risk due to a failure to break above $12k but the market also sees opportunities above $4k so it makes sense that we're stuck here at about $8k, following this $7990 level that I've identified as a heavy resistance/support level.
A close of the 1 D candle will put us at 4 consecutive negative closes which is historically rare though we recently had 6 consecutive negative closes.
A 5th consecutive negative close seems highly unlikely given the current inflection between ascending and descending trendlines.
In about 7 hours we'll have a pivot between the Sept 2017 trendline and the upper pink descending channel line. A break above $8050+ would be bullish while a move below $7820 would be bearish.
A close of the 1 D candle will put us at 4 consecutive negative closes which is historically rare though we recently had 6 consecutive negative closes.
A 5th consecutive negative close seems highly unlikely given the current inflection between ascending and descending trendlines.
In about 7 hours we'll have a pivot between the Sept 2017 trendline and the upper pink descending channel line. A break above $8050+ would be bullish while a move below $7820 would be bearish.
Comment:
Though a move below $7820 could be seen as bearish 4 hr RSI could indicate a convergence though it seems that MACD would need more time to confirm this as well so it seems unlikely that the immediate timeframe will result in a big move either way.
Comment:
Comment:
I should define big move as >5%.
Comment:
Probably should've identified this zone of heavy support/resistance intersecting the Mar 2017 trendline as an ideal place to trade 5 min RSI. Given sideways price action 5 min RSI has probably generated 5 or 6 decent size $100-$200+ moves profit opportunities since the morning/afternoon of Mar 26.
Comment:
You can see the automated RSI Strategy indicator alerts in the chart. Generally this strategy works well if you anticipate sideways price action.
You can see the automated RSI Strategy indicator alerts in the chart. Generally this strategy works well if you anticipate sideways price action.
Comment:
This bounce off the top of the pink upper channel line is a good sign. We'll see how it goes from here. Probably sideways...
This bounce off the top of the pink upper channel line is a good sign. We'll see how it goes from here. Probably sideways...
Comment:
There's 70 BTC each worth of spoofy volume in the Bid and the Ask now. But this volume has been compounded and now has 267 BTC at the market price.
Comment:
The bid is retreating now even though not much is actually happening since very few are market selling.
Comment:
That spoofy volume made the price go down $5.
Comment:
And then disappeared. Spoofy volume moved to $7820 and then dropped by about half from 120 BTC to less than 60 BTC.
Comment:
Spoofy volume at $7820 is now back to 273 BTC but not moving up to the market price like before.
Comment:
This tactic is clearly trying to exploit some kind of behavior. The market is not buying it as we've creeped back to $7811.99
Comment:
One possibility here is that some whale is trying to buy as much as possible at this price and they want to force selling action so their buying activity doesn't trigger a big jump in price.
Comment:
Although this seems like an inefficient way to do this maybe the lower costs make it worth it. I've only seen about 27 BTC worth of market sells come through but I can see this allowing thousands of BTC to be bought using limit orders at market price without substantially affecting the overall price. This big sell wall has disappeared again. It appears to be 2 or 3 big orders as the first drop off led to a move from 272 to 140 and then to less than 70 and then to nothing. Now price is moving up quite rapidly.
Comment:
Seeing 100% green in market buys.
Comment:
I had an order for $7700, which I felt was needed to trigger a bigger move but the bounce happened at $7765 and previously when I wasn't trading it touched $7730.
Still, not really a big move yet. This spoofy volume is back with about 300+ BTC in the Ask at about $7870 and it's driving the price back.
Still, not really a big move yet. This spoofy volume is back with about 300+ BTC in the Ask at about $7870 and it's driving the price back.
Comment:
And that volume is gone again...
Comment:
What doesn't make sense about throwing up a bunch of fake sell volume to buy is that you could just throw up fake sell volume, drive the price down, and then just buy at lower prices. Ultimately, if you're buying with the intention of making a profit then you would be throwing up big buy walls to move the market higher.
Perhaps putting up a big sell wall thins out the order book to allow a low liquidity move later.
Perhaps putting up a big sell wall thins out the order book to allow a low liquidity move later.
Comment:
There's still a fair amount of resistance between $7880 and $7990 but some big buy walls have gone up at $7800 and $7820 so perhaps we'll see a creep along the green and purple ascending trendlines to move back out of the sharp descending channel.
A number of things could happen here. The 5 min RSI trade probably is too risky now given the tighter trading range between the two ascending trendlines and the zone of heavy resistance around $7990.
A number of things could happen here. The 5 min RSI trade probably is too risky now given the tighter trading range between the two ascending trendlines and the zone of heavy resistance around $7990.
Comment:
If price gets back to $7990 then that could trigger a 5 min RSI sell signal which would make for a 3% gain should we see a dip back to the top of the pink upper channel line at about $7750. If you conservatively targeted 1.5% that might be worth it.
We're seeing a huge sell wall again. And as soon as I typed that the volume went from 160 BTC to less than 4 and now less than 1... And then this volume popped up $20 higher up on the order book.
We're seeing a huge sell wall again. And as soon as I typed that the volume went from 160 BTC to less than 4 and now less than 1... And then this volume popped up $20 higher up on the order book.
Comment:
On 4 hr or shorter timescale charts this looks like a descending triangle, which is bearish, but on the 1 D chart it's such a tiny pattern that a downward break should be relatively small and could be enough to indicate RSI Convergence on the 4 hr though I think we need a few more days for this to play out.
To get RSI Convergence on the 1 D I think we'd need to see a close below $4k and the timescale for this to happen would likely be months. In 2014 RSI Convergence appears to have been indicated on the 1 D charts from mid-September to mid-January, so 4 months to play out and price fell by 42%. After this point price rebounded by 75% in 10 days.
To get RSI Convergence on the 1 D I think we'd need to see a close below $4k and the timescale for this to happen would likely be months. In 2014 RSI Convergence appears to have been indicated on the 1 D charts from mid-September to mid-January, so 4 months to play out and price fell by 42%. After this point price rebounded by 75% in 10 days.
Comment:
A smaller RSI Convergence was signaled Oct. 24 and this resulted in a 23% gain.
MACD didn't really confirm either of these but clearly the market saw this as a technical momentum opportunity.
A smaller RSI Convergence was signaled Oct. 24 and this resulted in a 23% gain.
MACD didn't really confirm either of these but clearly the market saw this as a technical momentum opportunity.
Comment:
Probably not coincidentally this signaled the bottom of the bear market and after this you could say an ascending triangle formed that led to a bull run through the end of 2017.
This doesn't bode well for the current market though conditions are different this time around and we could see another run before going through an extended bearish phase. It seems highly unlikely that should the market hit sub-$4k that the same enthusiasm will result in the huge capital inflows into cryptocurrencies with expectations of previous highs. In order to maintain the overall bullish trend we really need to see a bottoming off one of the more recent ascending trendlines (March 2017 / Sept. 2017).
This doesn't bode well for the current market though conditions are different this time around and we could see another run before going through an extended bearish phase. It seems highly unlikely that should the market hit sub-$4k that the same enthusiasm will result in the huge capital inflows into cryptocurrencies with expectations of previous highs. In order to maintain the overall bullish trend we really need to see a bottoming off one of the more recent ascending trendlines (March 2017 / Sept. 2017).
Comment:
Oops, the chart above is from 2014, where RSI Convergence appeared on the 1 D charts.
Comment:
We're starting to see a bit of positive momentum here and there is what I think is spoofy volume at $7900 of 74 BTC. If this goes away then the order book will open up considerably.but the resistance is heavy at $7890 as well.
Comment:
And a shit ton of spoofy volume just evaporated just like that and we're getting a move above $7900 probably...
Comment:
Or maybe not...
Comment:
87 BTC spoofy sell volume at $7900 now. Could see a test of that soon. And as soon as I typed it the volume fell to 79
Comment:
Since GDAX has a 70 BTC order limit these spoofy orders clearly understand that you would need to be executing orders simultaneously on multiple accounts to hit that volume with a market order. So that volume manages to always stay "out of reach" while working to influence price action.
Comment:
$7900 being tested now. Lots of market buying...
Comment:
This sell volume hasn't really budged but the bid as dried up as momentum was lost. Not seeing a bullish push at all by whales here...
And without warning that volume completely disappeared and $7900 was broken.
And without warning that volume completely disappeared and $7900 was broken.
Comment:
A momentum breakout seems plausible here depending on how "real" the order book is on each side of the trade.
Comment:
Big buy wall now in place at $7900. Price starting to move through this fairly thin order book.
Comment:
5 min RSI very close to overbought.
Comment:
This pump could have some legs...
Comment:
What's concerning is that this low liquidity, low volume move could be manipulated and just as quickly you'll see momentum run out and everyone will dump...
Comment:
This would have been a good 5 min RSI trade if I had bought at $7770 with a target of $7900. That would have been 1.67% in 8 hours.
So not really the best risk:reward and maybe the last trade like this before we start to see more volatility as we get away from these tighter support and resistance levels.
So not really the best risk:reward and maybe the last trade like this before we start to see more volatility as we get away from these tighter support and resistance levels.
Comment:
Just as quickly as that momentum ran out these huge sell walls have come back.
Comment:
Clearly, if there was enough liquidity entering the market we'd see a huge breakout since a lot of this sell volume doesn't appear to be real. An external trigger would be one way to get that.
Comment:
I was going to talk about regaining this line of heavy resistance/support but didn't want to jinx myself. Clearly this is all a low liquidity move but getting out of the pink channel and above $8080 / the middle of the blue channel intersecting the March 2017 trendline would open up a move back to $8500-$8600, i.e. the top of the blue channel / next zone of heavy resistance.
I was going to talk about regaining this line of heavy resistance/support but didn't want to jinx myself. Clearly this is all a low liquidity move but getting out of the pink channel and above $8080 / the middle of the blue channel intersecting the March 2017 trendline would open up a move back to $8500-$8600, i.e. the top of the blue channel / next zone of heavy resistance.
Comment:
So far not much momentum past $8000 and very little volume again.
Comment:
This is now about a 3.9% move from the low for the day. I suppose we might see a push to the next trendline or a bounce off the heavy support zone though it seems like price is gaining some momentum again.
Comment:
On Bitfinex it seems that the two lines discussed previously have been touched though on GDAX it seems like price has gotten caught up at $8050.
Comment:
Back to the Mar 2017 trendline / middle of the blue channel. Getting above $8100 could start a wave of stop-hunting shorts...
Comment:
Another momentum move started but 5 and 15 min charts showed RSI Divergence and just like that a sell trigger caused a small dip...
Comment:
I'm impressed we saw a bounce here but it's still too early for it to mean anything. Clearly some major players are trying to force some action in this low liquidity environment so it will be interesting to see who wins out.
I'm impressed we saw a bounce here but it's still too early for it to mean anything. Clearly some major players are trying to force some action in this low liquidity environment so it will be interesting to see who wins out.
Comment:
For a moment a huge 270+ BTC buy wall went in just below the market price.
Comment:
Probably should've seen this symmetrical triangle forming ...
Probably should've seen this symmetrical triangle forming ...
Comment:
It seems plausible that we'll get a kind of mini descending triangle here that will kill some time and then a dip below the bottom of the blue channel to the top of the pink channel and then strong support at ~$7500.
RSI Convergence on the 4 hr chart isn't as strongly supported as last time because MACD Convergence isn't there so it would be wise to wait for a clear breakout.
RSI Convergence on the 4 hr chart isn't as strongly supported as last time because MACD Convergence isn't there so it would be wise to wait for a clear breakout.
Comment:
What seems just as likely is a continued trend of sitting in the bottom half of this blue channel which on the 4 hr chart, you can clearly see that we've been sitting in this channel for 3 days now so it's not exactly a surprise for the price to come back to the bottom of this channel.
Comment:
On the 1 hr and (mostly) the 2 hr we're seeing MACD and RSI Convergence, and this could be enough to trigger a push back to the middle of the blue channel.
Should the September (green) trendline pull the price back above it in the next 45 min for the 4 hr candle close then I would discount the 4 hr RSI Convergence for the near term and look for sideways price action going into the intersection of the middle of the blue channel with the green ascending Sept 2017 trendline. This intersection happens on Mar 30 (Friday) early in the morning USA time so it seems plausible something could play out on the evening of Mar 29 depending on market conditions and assuming no other triggers.
Should the September (green) trendline pull the price back above it in the next 45 min for the 4 hr candle close then I would discount the 4 hr RSI Convergence for the near term and look for sideways price action going into the intersection of the middle of the blue channel with the green ascending Sept 2017 trendline. This intersection happens on Mar 30 (Friday) early in the morning USA time so it seems plausible something could play out on the evening of Mar 29 depending on market conditions and assuming no other triggers.
Comment:
I made the comment about the 4 hr candle close looking at a different timescale so it appears there's almost 2.5 hours left before that candle close so that would make more sense in terms of seeing a reversal.
Comment:
Some funny business on Bitfinex where price totally flash crashed $100 lower and popped back up by $80.
Comment:
Someone market bought 32.59 BTC at $7573
Comment:
It definitely seems like Bitfinex saw a huge market sell or coordinated dump which didn't happen on GDAX.
Comment:
Price is now hugging the bottom of this blue channel...
Comment:
Just saw a handful of market sells totalling 80 BTC. Clearly some people panic selling here...
Comment:
Not sure how much of this support is real but we'll know if the market can hit $7500...
Comment:
Spoofy sell volume sitting at $7645.
Comment:
Before it looked to be about 70 BTC total or multiples of 70, which is the max order size allowed by GDAX, and this looks like they tweaked their strategy a bit. It seems like you need to re-write your bots continuously to stay ahead.
Comment:
Clearly price isn't going anywhere so the 4 hr RSI Convergence is still in play. Looks like $7500 is getting tested now. A push below in the next 4-8 hours will make MACD/RSI Convergence increasingly likely but this could be 16+ hours from now...
I'm going to check on this in 6 hours...
I'm going to check on this in 6 hours...
Comment:
Just saw almost 50+ BTC market sold... at $7510... This cluster of orders was very suspicious because they all executed at exactly the same time which suggests some kind of coordination or trigger.
Comment:
Huge buying pressure now above $7450...
Comment:
In Bitfinex we got a touch off the top of this pink channel and now a new 4 hr candle has started. Just saw a couple of market sells for almost 30 BTC total at $7510
Comment:
Seeing a lot of large orders dumping
Comment:
The mini descending triangle mentioned earlier seems like it has played out, which could lead to a break below $7500 soon. 24 hr volume has been rising.
I don't see any big market buys being filled.
I don't see any big market buys being filled.
Comment:
Some bounce needs to happen here on the 4 hr candle or RSI Convergence isn't looking promising....
Comment:
Based on where the last few candles have closed 4 hr RSI Convergence seems to be invalidated.
Comment:
I broadened the pink channel so instead of having the price running along the top it is now in the middle.
I broadened the pink channel so instead of having the price running along the top it is now in the middle.
Comment:
I called a short strategy below $7500 3 days ago but I forgot about it... I usually keep a list of possible strategies but I've been overly focused on a reversal here.
If 1 D RSI hits 30 or lower that should signal more buying and if we get a 1 D close below $6900 then we could be looking at 1 D RSI Convergence. A signal here should lead to a very strong reversal though 20% from $6800 would only push back to $8160. A 50% reversal would push from $6800 to $10200 (over a longer duration like a month).
A 20% reversal from $6658 would put the market right back to the heavy resistance/support area at $7990 while a 50% reversal would push to $9987.
This market is already pretty oversold so I'm not sure how much more panic selling can happen here ...
As we crossed the 78.6% fib level of the move from $5900 to $11800 we got a 2 min breakout from $7021 to $7243 so 3+% in less than 2 minutes. Probably would've needed to be a HFT bot to get in and out that quickly though as I write this we're back to $7225 8 minutes after nearly hitting $7000...
If 1 D RSI hits 30 or lower that should signal more buying and if we get a 1 D close below $6900 then we could be looking at 1 D RSI Convergence. A signal here should lead to a very strong reversal though 20% from $6800 would only push back to $8160. A 50% reversal would push from $6800 to $10200 (over a longer duration like a month).
A 20% reversal from $6658 would put the market right back to the heavy resistance/support area at $7990 while a 50% reversal would push to $9987.
This market is already pretty oversold so I'm not sure how much more panic selling can happen here ...
As we crossed the 78.6% fib level of the move from $5900 to $11800 we got a 2 min breakout from $7021 to $7243 so 3+% in less than 2 minutes. Probably would've needed to be a HFT bot to get in and out that quickly though as I write this we're back to $7225 8 minutes after nearly hitting $7000...
Comment:
The current 1 D move puts the market solidly into the middle of the Mar 9 descending channel. If we see a reversal from here then that could be a bull trap since you can see that the market has only barely managed to ride above this channel before falling back into it.
Comment:
Comment:
I think a short term reversal is likely but this market is signaling major weakness so another drop seems inevitable. It could be weeks or months to get 1 D RSI Convergence.
I'm not sure when I wrote the above because I had to make some trades. I got in at $7050 and should've set multiple orders for $6900-$7050 but only did one and stopped out at $7250 (slightly below) after it hit $7300+.
I'm not sure when I wrote the above because I had to make some trades. I got in at $7050 and should've set multiple orders for $6900-$7050 but only did one and stopped out at $7250 (slightly below) after it hit $7300+.
Comment:
We're seeing a lot of resistance now at about $7250 which is the 78.6% fib level of the $5900 to $11800 move. Closing a 4 hr candle above $7250 would be a major hurdle.
Comment:
It's looking promising that the 4 hr candle will close above the middle of the blue channel (which is also the middle of the pink channel). But the price action on shorter timescales suggests we're consolidating to a sym triangle so we might see an early breakdown here before the candle close if buying pressure can't hold the market up for another 30 minutes.
Comment:
I said something wrong. Instead of the "blue channel" I meant the big Mar 9 channel. If price goes sideways out of this pink channel then we could be looking at a bump back into the blue channel.
Comment:
The 4 hr couldn't hold above the middle of the channel and the next 4 hr has pushed to the bottom of that channel and we've seen several tests of the bottom now.
A risky entry level based on the support I'm seeing.
A risky entry level based on the support I'm seeing.
Comment:
Yesterday, if I'd been focusing more on the 4 hr chart I could have recognized that the pink channel had expanded. Expanding it out I would have seen the descending triangle and failure to break the channel which would have led to a strong short opportunity.
Yesterday, if I'd been focusing more on the 4 hr chart I could have recognized that the pink channel had expanded. Expanding it out I would have seen the descending triangle and failure to break the channel which would have led to a strong short opportunity.
Comment:
Seeing a possible ascending triangle which could be nothing but support seems to be building above this lower channel line.
Comment:
4 hr candle closing in 11 min. and an 8th consecutive red candle seems improbable.
Comment:
The other two times in recent history that we've seen more than 7 consecutive red 4 hr candles have been the big dip to $5900 with 10 consecutive 4 hr red candles and the move from about $14k to $9.5k which was 9 straight red 4 hr candles.
Considering the current situation it seems like we could test the bottom of the bigger channel.
Considering the current situation it seems like we could test the bottom of the bigger channel.
Comment:
2 hr RSI is below 14.5 and I can't even find another instance in recent history where it was this low.
Comment:
I had to go back to May 2016. Following that the market reversed in a major way.
Comment:
Support at $7k is positive. Resistance at $7240 is gone now...
Comment:
Could this be a bull flag/pennant?
Comment:
Looks like this 8th 4 hr candle will close green like I said...
Comment:
Hitting that 78.6 fib line and not a ton of resistance...
Comment:
Looks like that resistance is going toput the market into a sideways trend for a while. The 78.6% fib and this sloping middle line in the channel should serve as short term support and resistance.
Comment:
I nearly made 3 trades on the dip. There was a clear 5/15/45 min RSI Convergence right before the really big breakout and I missed the $7k entry...
Comment:
I exited an unfortunate LTC trade I made yesterday for nearly breakeven which would have been extremely profitable had I waited a day but didn't want to compound my risk on that so unfortunately didn't fully optimize my trades since I was already carrying risk.
This next phase could be a bull trap / bear flag and 1 D RSI Convergence is still on the table if we can get a little bit lower.
This next phase could be a bull trap / bear flag and 1 D RSI Convergence is still on the table if we can get a little bit lower.
Comment:
The 4 hr candle has 3 hours to go and I'm not staying up for that but if it stays above about $7090 then we might see a bounce here but it's not looking so good as I write this. RSI Divergence was signaled on the 5 min chart and while it's not a strong indicator it's not a buy signal...
Comment:
Looks like 1 D candle now negative and middle of channel has become strong resistance after a failure to break the 78.6% fib level.
Comment:
Looks like shorting at that 78.6% fib level wasn't such a stupid idea after all... but I didnt...
Comment:
ETCBTC and XMRBTC still up but ZECBTC up a lot more.... in USD terms still not good...
Comment:
The bottom of this channel is being very hotly contested. I made the mistake of thinking it was breaking out to the downside and went short and then close it out quickly because the volatility was freaking me out and a 5 min RSI Convergence was looking possible.
Comment:
The 5 min RSI Divergence combined with the 78.6% fib resistance proved to be sufficient to turn this back...
The 5 min RSI Divergence combined with the 78.6% fib resistance proved to be sufficient to turn this back...
Comment:
This lower channel is holding, for now... Support looks strong but we might need to wait a few another hour for a breakout if it is going to happen here. RSI Convergence is being signaled so we'll have to wait and see how the candles close. Ideally a little more bounce here off the bottom of the channel would help.
Comment:
This is the wedge that I think we could fall into which could then lead to a strong 2 hr RSI/MACD Convergence plus support at $6500.
A push back to maybe $7990-$8100 perhaps before another dip.
1 D MACD/RSI Convergence is starting to look possible. Not sure how this will play out.
This is the wedge that I think we could fall into which could then lead to a strong 2 hr RSI/MACD Convergence plus support at $6500.
A push back to maybe $7990-$8100 perhaps before another dip.
1 D MACD/RSI Convergence is starting to look possible. Not sure how this will play out.
Comment:
Sometimes when the market loses momentum time just has to pass so that a price can break out of a channel before anything happens.
Comment:
The volume supporting this buying has been very suspicious from the beginning but we'll see ... we might see trading around $7k until some other trend line pops into the scene.
Comment:
Comment:
If you look at 2014 the market had so much less liquidity. I can't even imagine having to ride out that dip. In an 8 hour period the market lost 40% and then rebounded by 52% over the next 4-8 hours.
Comment:
The death cross came so much faster and at such a steeper angle than this time. And trading was likely just pure panic selling and FOMO.
The death cross came so much faster and at such a steeper angle than this time. And trading was likely just pure panic selling and FOMO.
Comment:
Also you can see the huge dip preceded the death cross and while there was a decline afterwards the overall trend became momentarily positive after the dip. If you had held less than a month you would've regained the entirety of the dip.
Comment:
So if we lost 40% today and went to $4200 I can imagine the buying would be so furious that this dip would be erased almost as quickly as it played out just like in 2014 considering there is so much more liquidity just waiting for an opportunity and a buy/momentum signal. So this price level isn't bad risk/reward, but I think momentum is running out and we're likely going to revisit the lower channel line, hopefully to get a more solid bounce on a better combo of indicators and pattern.
Comment:
It really looks like a little bull flag was painted on the 5 min charts... I was thinking to myself earlier this is where Bogdanov goes "pump it and paint a bull flag"... and I FOMO in...
Comment:
But I didn't because I've seen this end badly before. I should've kept my LTC position or just halved. I make the stupidest trades when I wake up to heavy price action. I made two opposing trades and closed one because it immediately looked like a bad idea and then on the other one I just wigged myself out again and instead of taking a 50% position reduction I bailed, again. I need to stop doing that.
Comment:
looks like we're breaking this ascending channel support
Comment:
And now we're hitting the trendline that runs from the last dip, about $6800...
Comment:
Looks like we got the death cross... I had been charting that wrong because I wasn't charting the 200 DMA only the 200 EMA...
Comment:
Market doesn't seem to care...
Comment:
Doesn't look good in the near term. This pennant/triangle looks like it will drop us down to the lower channel trendline intersection of this fat channel with the skinny channel and then maybe we go slightly lower/sideways, maybe confirm a 1 D close below the last recent low of about $6900 to confirm 1 D RSI Convergence / double bottom and then we see a big early pump / slow roll over the next month back to $10k which would be a 72.4% gain from $5800.
That would be the "ideal" scenario. At this point we're overdue for a decent reversal based on the 1 D ADX peaking twice above 30 on negative trends.
Doesn't look good in the near term. This pennant/triangle looks like it will drop us down to the lower channel trendline intersection of this fat channel with the skinny channel and then maybe we go slightly lower/sideways, maybe confirm a 1 D close below the last recent low of about $6900 to confirm 1 D RSI Convergence / double bottom and then we see a big early pump / slow roll over the next month back to $10k which would be a 72.4% gain from $5800.
That would be the "ideal" scenario. At this point we're overdue for a decent reversal based on the 1 D ADX peaking twice above 30 on negative trends.
Comment:
Unless we break sideways through this triangle/pennant I'm going to anticipate a move to somewhere between $5200 and $5800 with a 1 D close between $6k and $6.5k. This should provide several entry opportunities for intraday, swing, and longer position trades.
Comment:
The last part will be dependent on a lot of factors that I will explain in another piece.