BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
3212 17 12
It seems like Bitcoin             has built a 5 quarter base, and rallied for exactly 5 quarters before starting the current slow downwards grind.

Right now the outlook is neutral, but as soon as we see an impulsive decline, I expect it to develop into a strong downtrend, targetting the 86 dollars mark.

Mining induced inflation is slowly killing the BTC             price, which shows a weak demand, and a fading popularity after the emotional bulls are losing their perma-bull patience.

I sold my BTC             at 378usd and I'm not looking back, but I find interesting how this market behaves.
On the fundamental side of things, some people are counting on the US Marshall's auctions' buyer Tim Draper and others to push the price up, but for now there is no sign of bulls in the longer term.

My reccomendation: stay in cash or your asset/commodity of choice.
This is still very much valid.
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IvanLabrie IvanLabrie
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Fairly likely scenario.
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IvanLabrie IvanLabrie
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Addendum:

Looking back at the MtGox era, I came up with this ratio chart, inspired by Tim West's work.

People were anticipating the addition of an LTCUSD pair at MtGox, which was the largest exchange at the time for Bitcoin.
It never came, the exchange massively scammed everyone and their mother, btc fell like all hell broke loose after MtGox basically created huge amounts of fake USD to buy people's BTC for free...
That was the beginning of the end for both pairs.

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How do you reconcile larger user-base and larger commercial adoption and an equivalent price to that before this increase?
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IvanLabrie StudMuffin
What do you mean?
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StudMuffin IvanLabrie
You are saying that Bitcoin has a target at $86 in a continued downtrend? How will it ever get that low?
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IvanLabrie StudMuffin
It's just the previous fair value according to time spent at that price.
It will slow down in shorter term fair accepted value areas on the way down, or even rebound, but for now I remain in cash until proven wrong.
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