BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
3199 17 8
It seems like Bitcoin has built a 5 quarter base, and rallied for exactly 5 quarters before starting the current slow downwards grind.

Right now the outlook is neutral, but as soon as we see an impulsive decline, I expect it to develop into a strong downtrend, targetting the 86 dollars mark.

Mining induced inflation is slowly killing the BTC price, which shows a weak demand, and a fading popularity after the emotional bulls are losing their perma-bull patience.

I sold my BTC at 378usd and I'm not looking back, but I find interesting how this market behaves.
On the fundamental side of things, some people are counting on the US Marshall's auctions' buyer Tim Draper and others to push the price up, but for now there is no sign of bulls in the longer term.

My reccomendation: stay in cash or your asset/commodity of choice.
If you're interested in joining my trading newsletter or private lessons, message me. I trade Forex, Equities and Commodities. Contact: skype @ ivanlabrie, PM here or QQ (2954487803).
LastBattle
2 years ago
Nice observation!

Same, I'm in fiat too until I see a clear sign of demand.
+2 Reply
IvanLabrie TOP LastBattle
2 years ago
Thanks for the comments, this is a very long term chart, so you can see clearer from the distance of everyday noise. I don't look at charts below 1d in BTCUSD for that reason. (wealthy traders don't dwell below 1d I think, and they are way fewer than in other markets) :)
Reply
StudMuffin
2 years ago
How do you reconcile larger user-base and larger commercial adoption and an equivalent price to that before this increase?
Reply
IvanLabrie TOP StudMuffin
2 years ago
What do you mean?
Reply
StudMuffin IvanLabrie
2 years ago
You are saying that Bitcoin has a target at $86 in a continued downtrend? How will it ever get that low?
Reply
IvanLabrie TOP StudMuffin
2 years ago
It's just the previous fair value according to time spent at that price.
It will slow down in shorter term fair accepted value areas on the way down, or even rebound, but for now I remain in cash until proven wrong.
Reply
StudMuffin IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Why not just open a short and make money on the way down?
Reply
IvanLabrie TOP StudMuffin
2 years ago
Setups are way more scarce...and it's one pair vs all the majors and exotic pairs in Forex. I can't make the same amount of money out of btc trading, ROI vs time isn't quite there. :) (I went 5x on my whole account in forex last month, and this week started fresh with a smaller amount, and went 2x since Monday. Couldn't possibly do that with btc)
Reply
StudMuffin IvanLabrie
2 years ago
You can do 20x at OKCoin and I think even more at 796.
Reply
StudMuffin StudMuffin
2 years ago
796 has 50x if you feel really lucky.
Reply
IvanLabrie TOP StudMuffin
2 years ago
I know, but the distance to the stop and volatility make it impossible to use without being a gambler and not a serious trader. Super short term btc trading is also not reliable, technical analysis wise.
Forex is simply the better choice.
Reply
Addendum:

Looking back at the MtGox era, I came up with this ratio chart, inspired by Tim West's work.

People were anticipating the addition of an LTCUSD pair at MtGox, which was the largest exchange at the time for Bitcoin.
It never came, the exchange massively scammed everyone and their mother, btc fell like all hell broke loose after MtGox basically created huge amounts of fake USD to buy people's BTC for free...
That was the beginning of the end for both pairs.

snapshot
Reply
snapshot


Fairly likely scenario.
Reply
IvanLabrie TOP IvanLabrie
2 years ago
snapshot
Reply
snapshot
Reply
This is still very much valid.
Reply
IvanLabrie TOP IvanLabrie
2 years ago
snapshot
Reply
Ideas Scripts Chart
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
Italia
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Billing Sign Out