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Long

# 1st impulse wave of bull market

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
260 25
wave 3 extends

market is correcting now (wave 2)

note: i forgot to label waves 1 and 2 of wave 3. typo on wave 5 diagonal. there should be a wave 4
So where are we now in the bigger picture? I thought wave 5 (big wave 5) was the downward that you expected to complete around 309? I'm so lost! :-/
johnrfraser
that got truncated. i guess i wasn't clear enough. the bear market is over! wave 5 was truncated in the ending diagonal as well as of course the larger wave 5 of C. wave C is over.... there is no wave C. its a new beginning now. we begin a new bull cycle.
user100000
yes i expected 309, but did not happen... market just truncated!
user100000
user100000
so You think we go more up?
PanScibi
yes i do. we just completed little wave 1... new bull cycle starting... forget bear market... its over!
PanScibi
for me is looking close like ending of 2 wave, start 3 wave..
PanScibi
correction not over. only wave a is complete. you need wave b and c to complete correction
user100000
Yea , we got starting b now, so better to w8 for ending c to buy ;)
PanScibi
exactly! pls take over while im away. i need to rest . counting is tiring
user100000
Hehe! Thanks for clarifying :-)
Why do you think we just completed Wave 5 of bigger C on 11-22 (your count) and not Wave 1 of Wave 5 of bigger C on 11-21 (my alternate count)?

I'm trying to find a way to exclude the latter from my alternate count and can't since both fit the form of Leading and Ending Diagonal Triangles (3-3-3-3-3).

We can use the rules to determine if Wave 2 of ATH started on 11-25 (your count) or, alternatively, if Wave 3 of Wave 5 of Bigger C started on 11-25 (my alternate count): Elliott Rule #1 - Wave 2 can never overlap the start of Wave 1.

Going forward, if we pass above 395.11 then Wave 5 of Bigger C may have indeed completed on 11-22, as you believe, because my alternate count would violate Rule 1 (Wave 2 of Wave 3 of Wave 5 of Bigger C cannot overlap the start of Wave 1 of Wave 3 of Wave 5 of Bigger C).

However, if we pass below 352.73 then only Wave 1 of Wave 5 of Bigger C may have completed on 11-22, with Waves 2-4 still to go, because your count would violate Rule 1 (Wave 2 of ATH can never overlap the start of Wave 1 of ATH).

So I'm trying to figure out why my alternate count cannot be a valid possibility. Thanks.
Unapologetic_Capitalist
good question... wave 5 of C started in june. wave 5 and wave 1 in an impulse wave often are equal in size especially if wave 3 was extended which was the case (2.618 of wave 1). the 5th wave travelled all the way to 342. just 33 points away from 309 where wave 1 would have equaled wave 5. you can't have a leading diagonal that occupies 77% of the whole wave. there is no room left for waves 3 and 5
user100000
if you like indicators.... stick a macd under the chart. you will find divergence between waves 3 and 5... another hint
user100000

Like most Wave analysts, it looks like we have different wave counts. I have Wave 3 (of C) starting in June 2014, Wave 4 (of C) starting Oct 4, 2014, and Wave 5 (of C) starting Nov 12, 2014.

While Wave 1 tends to equal Wave 5 when Wave 3 extends, that isn't an absolute rule, so if Wave 5 also extends (which is possible) then my alternate count is still a possibility, but your count may have a higher probability.

Stated differently, we cannot completely exclude the possibility that we completed Wave 1 of Wave 5 of bigger C as an alternate count based on the rules, correct?

Thus, I think your analysis may be the primary count but with Elliott wave we're supposed to also consider alternate counts (and associated trading plans) since Elliott Wave is a probabilistic, rather than deterministic, system.

Thanks and keep up the good work. ;)
Unapologetic_Capitalist
btw, I view each bull cycle as it's own complete 8 wave cycle (e.g., 1-2-3-4-5-A-B-C).
Unapologetic_Capitalist
ah... ok... how do you view a bear cycle?
user100000
I meant each bull-bear cycle (1-2-3-4-5-A-B-C), with W5 representing each new ATH (i.e., Aug 2012, April 2013, Nov 2014, etc...).

Sorry, getting late and not being as clear as I'de like...lol
Unapologetic_Capitalist
yes you can have 2 extensions in an impulse wave but that is very rare. a lot of time wave 5 is equal to 61.8% of waves 1-3. if you look at my long term count. it show a target of 315. so from bigger picture wave 5 fit well. of course you have to agree with my longer term count
user100000
Don't disagree with your short-term count and definitely agree with your longer term count re ATH after Wave 5 of C being completed, just making sure that my shorter-term alternate count cannot be excluded based on the rules. ;)

Good analysis and look forward to seeing which one of our short-term counts ends up violating Rule 1.

Thanks.
Unapologetic_Capitalist
great. you seem to be cautious analyst

so i guess you have stop buy orders above the origin of your wave1
user100000
exactly...defensive where the trends in our counts differ (i.e., stop buy on my short like you stated with a smaller amount)...and aggressive where the trends in our counts coincide (i.e., going long with a larger amount at the start of your W3 of ATH, which would coincide with the start of my WC of W2 of W3 of W5 of WC).

That way, if I'm wrong I just make less profit on uptrend bet and take small loss on downtrend bet but if I'm right...

Unapologetic_Capitalist
ok have you questioned why this ending/leading diagonal had it's wave 5 truncated if you still think it's wave 1 of a larger wave 5. usually truncation indicate pressure from market to move in the opposite direction
user100000
No.

For one of my counts (same as your count), I see W5 of W5 as truncated like you, which shows strong pressure in opposite direction.

For my alternate count, that "truncated" wave was my WB of W2 of WC.
Unapologetic_Capitalist
ok im having difficulty visualising your alternate count. im not very good with words
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