1st impulse wave of bull market

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
wave 3 extends

market is correcting now (wave 2)

note: i forgot to label waves 1 and 2 of wave 3. typo on wave 5 diagonal. there should be a wave 4
Why do you think we just completed Wave 5 of bigger C on 11-22 (your count) and not Wave 1 of Wave 5 of bigger C on 11-21 (my alternate count)?

I'm trying to find a way to exclude the latter from my alternate count and can't since both fit the form of Leading and Ending Diagonal Triangles (3-3-3-3-3).

We can use the rules to determine if Wave 2 of ATH started on 11-25 (your count) or, alternatively, if Wave 3 of Wave 5 of Bigger C started on 11-25 (my alternate count): Elliott Rule #1 - Wave 2 can never overlap the start of Wave 1.

Going forward, if we pass above 395.11 then Wave 5 of Bigger C may have indeed completed on 11-22, as you believe, because my alternate count would violate Rule 1 (Wave 2 of Wave 3 of Wave 5 of Bigger C cannot overlap the start of Wave 1 of Wave 3 of Wave 5 of Bigger C).

However, if we pass below 352.73 then only Wave 1 of Wave 5 of Bigger C may have completed on 11-22, with Waves 2-4 still to go, because your count would violate Rule 1 (Wave 2 of ATH can never overlap the start of Wave 1 of ATH).

So I'm trying to figure out why my alternate count cannot be a valid possibility. Thanks.
user100000 Unapologetic_Capitalist
good question... wave 5 of C started in june. wave 5 and wave 1 in an impulse wave often are equal in size especially if wave 3 was extended which was the case (2.618 of wave 1). the 5th wave travelled all the way to 342. just 33 points away from 309 where wave 1 would have equaled wave 5. you can't have a leading diagonal that occupies 77% of the whole wave. there is no room left for waves 3 and 5
user100000 user100000
if you like indicators.... stick a macd under the chart. you will find divergence between waves 3 and 5... another hint
Ah, I see your point.

Like most Wave analysts, it looks like we have different wave counts. I have Wave 3 (of C) starting in June 2014, Wave 4 (of C) starting Oct 4, 2014, and Wave 5 (of C) starting Nov 12, 2014.

While Wave 1 tends to equal Wave 5 when Wave 3 extends, that isn't an absolute rule, so if Wave 5 also extends (which is possible) then my alternate count is still a possibility, but your count may have a higher probability.

Stated differently, we cannot completely exclude the possibility that we completed Wave 1 of Wave 5 of bigger C as an alternate count based on the rules, correct?

Thus, I think your analysis may be the primary count but with Elliott wave we're supposed to also consider alternate counts (and associated trading plans) since Elliott Wave is a probabilistic, rather than deterministic, system.

Thanks and keep up the good work. ;)
Unapologetic_Capitalist Unapologetic_Capitalist
btw, I view each bull cycle as it's own complete 8 wave cycle (e.g., 1-2-3-4-5-A-B-C).
user100000 Unapologetic_Capitalist
ah... ok... how do you view a bear cycle?
I meant each bull-bear cycle (1-2-3-4-5-A-B-C), with W5 representing each new ATH (i.e., Aug 2012, April 2013, Nov 2014, etc...).

Sorry, getting late and not being as clear as I'de
user100000 Unapologetic_Capitalist
yes you can have 2 extensions in an impulse wave but that is very rare. a lot of time wave 5 is equal to 61.8% of waves 1-3. if you look at my long term count. it show a target of 315. so from bigger picture wave 5 fit well. of course you have to agree with my longer term count
Don't disagree with your short-term count and definitely agree with your longer term count re ATH after Wave 5 of C being completed, just making sure that my shorter-term alternate count cannot be excluded based on the rules. ;)

Good analysis and look forward to seeing which one of our short-term counts ends up violating Rule 1.

user100000 Unapologetic_Capitalist
great. you seem to be cautious analyst

so i guess you have stop buy orders above the origin of your wave1
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