We're nearing a key moment...
As I've been noting in the comments in the previous update (www.tradingview.com/...l-building-the-case/), we've been carving out a 5 wave move toward the area of resistance at beginning at 630. That move is complete, and we stopped about $1 short of the lower end of the target range (at 628.98).
My expectation from here is that we drop to support before making a new high and resuming the long term trend - and the most important question is "how deep is support?".
In the immediately bullish case that I've been discussing, the market will find support in the 590-600 region for a wave 2, before rallying to new highs, although a drop to the 570-580 area ("Last chance support") is allowable within the parameters of the bullish pattern.
If neither support area is able to hold, the highest likelihood is that the the purple 5 wave move up was wave C of 4, which would point to a wave 5 below the low of Aug 2, in the area of 420 - the bearish case mentioned previously.
I should note that if the market finds support and rallies to new highs before reaching the upper support area, it would be a very bullish sign indeed.
At this point in time, my cautious expectation is that upper support holds...we shall see in the coming days...
As I've been noting in the comments in the previous update (www.tradingview.com/...l-building-the-case/), we've been carving out a 5 wave move toward the area of resistance at beginning at 630. That move is complete, and we stopped about $1 short of the lower end of the target range (at 628.98).
My expectation from here is that we drop to support before making a new high and resuming the long term trend - and the most important question is "how deep is support?".
In the immediately bullish case that I've been discussing, the market will find support in the 590-600 region for a wave 2, before rallying to new highs, although a drop to the 570-580 area ("Last chance support") is allowable within the parameters of the bullish pattern.
If neither support area is able to hold, the highest likelihood is that the the purple 5 wave move up was wave C of 4, which would point to a wave 5 below the low of Aug 2, in the area of 420 - the bearish case mentioned previously.
I should note that if the market finds support and rallies to new highs before reaching the upper support area, it would be a very bullish sign indeed.
At this point in time, my cautious expectation is that upper support holds...we shall see in the coming days...
